一个动荡的交易会议隐约为20.2亿美元的比特币[BTC]期权和2.8亿美元的以太坊[ETH]期权将今天到期。

这些高风险到期历史上一直是突然价格波动的催化剂，尤其是在开放兴趣和情感指标表现出明显差异时。

A volatile trading session looms as $2.02 billion in Bitcoin [BTC] options and $280 million in Ethereum [ETH] options are set to expire today.

一个动荡的交易会议隐约为20.2亿美元的比特币[BTC]期权和2.8亿美元的以太坊[ETH]期权将今天到期。

These high-stakes expiries have historically acted as catalysts for sudden price swings, especially when Open Interest and sentiment indicators show significant divergence.

这些高风险到期历史上一直是突然价格波动的催化剂，尤其是在开放兴趣和情感指标表现出明显差异时。

With traders aggressively repositioning to protect capital or maximize gains, both BTC and ETH face heightened intraday risk.

随着贸易商积极重新定位以保护资本或最大化收益，BTC和ETH都面临日内风险的增强。

As expiry pressure intensifies, the market’s reaction may set the tone for the weekend and possibly the broader short-term trend.

随着到期压力的加剧，市场的反应可能为周末和更广泛的短期趋势定下基调。

BTC options and potential scenarios

BTC选项和潜在方案

Bitcoin traded at $84,493.50, down 0.34% at press time. Meanwhile, Max Pain hovered near $90,000, per Coinglass, suggesting an upward pull as market makers aimed to minimize payouts.

比特币的交易价格为84,493.50美元，在发稿时下跌0.34％。同时，Max Pain徘徊在每套涂层中，徘徊在90,000美元左右，这表明营销商旨在最大程度地减少支出。

Furthermore, Open Interest climbed to $54.73 billion, marking a 1.81% increase, which suggests stronger participation leading into the expiry.

此外，开放兴趣攀升至547.3亿美元，标志增长了1.81％，这表明参与到了到期。

Although sentiment remained divided, smart money appeared confident. MarketProphet data showed crowd sentiment at -0.20, revealing slight pessimism from retail traders.

尽管情绪仍然分歧，但聪明的钱似乎很自信。 MarketProphet的数据显示，人群情绪为-0.20，揭示了零售商人的悲观情绪。

However, smart money sentiment was firmly positive at 0.92, implying that institutional players expected an upward move.

但是，聪明的金钱情绪在0.92处牢固地积极，这意味着机构参与者期望向上移动。

Additionally, liquidation data reflected an imbalance—$1 million in long positions have been flushed, compared to just $278.86K in shorts, hinting at over-leveraged longs exposed to further downside if momentum stalls.

此外，清算数据反映了不平衡 - 长位置的100万美元已经冲洗掉了，而短裤仅为278.86k美元，暗示如果动量失速，则表明过度杠杆性的渴望是进一步的下跌。

Ethereum’s position: Lower value, similar volatility?

以太坊的位置：较低的价值，相似的波动率？

Ethereum traded at $1,581.17, slipping 1.54% at press time. That placed ETH just under its Max Pain mark of $1,600, hinting at price magnetism toward that level.

以太坊的交易价格为1,581.17美元，发稿时下跌1.54％。这使ETH的最大痛苦标记为1,600美元，这暗示了价格磁性降低了这一水平。

However, Ethereum’s sentiment remained noticeably weaker than Bitcoin. MarketProphet gauged place crowd sentiment at -0.15 and smart money sentiment at -1.67, both reinforcing a dominant bearish outlook.

但是，以太坊的情绪比比特币明显弱。 MarketProphet在-0.15中将人群情绪评为-1.67的智慧货币情绪，都增强了占看不见的前景。

Therefore, any bullish reversal may face resistance unless fundamentals shift quickly.

因此，除非基本面迅速变化，否则任何看涨的逆转都可能面临抵抗。

Additionally, on-chain positioning appeared heavy—traders and whales may avoid making strong moves until expiry dust settles.

此外，链上的位置显得沉重 - 交易者和鲸鱼可能避免采取强大的动作，直到到期尘埃落定为止。

Market sentiment and whale activity: What’s priced in?

市场情绪和鲸鱼活动：什么价格？

Whale behavior and on-chain flows offer more context for today’s volatility. Over the past week, 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges.

鲸鱼行为和链链流动为当今的波动提供了更多背景。在过去的一周中，从交易所撤回了15,000个BTC。

This accumulation trend aligns with smart money’s bullish stance and implies that major holders expect strength following the expiry.

这种积累趋势与Smart Money的看涨立场保持一致，这意味着主要持有人期望在到期后的力量。

Therefore, BTC may find post-expiry stability or even upside traction if broader sentiment remains constructive.

因此，如果更广泛的情绪保持建设性，BTC可能会发现呼吸后稳定性甚至上升牵引力。

Ethereum, on the other hand, signals a completely different narrative.

另一方面，以太坊标志着完全不同的叙述。

In just six days, Galaxy Digital deposited 62,181 ETH worth $99.46 million to exchanges, including a $20.09 million inflow to Binance just eight hours ago.

在短短六天内，Galaxy Digital存入了62,181 ETH，价值9,946万美元进行交流，其中包括八个小时前的20090万美元流入到二手资金。

Such inflows often precede sell pressure or hedging behavior, especially when paired with bearish sentiment.

这种流入通常在出售压力或对冲行为之前，尤其是与看跌情绪搭配时。

This activity amplifies downside risk and creates a challenging environment for ETH unless strong demand re-emerges quickly.

这项活动扩大了下行风险，除非迅速重新出现，否则ETH为ETH创造了一个具有挑战性的环境。

Therefore, while Bitcoin flashes early signs of resilience, Ethereum may be entering a more volatile phase—one heavily shaped by its expiry dynamics and whale flows.

因此，尽管比特币闪烁着弹性的早期迹象，但以太坊可能会进入一个更挥发性的阶段，这是由于其到期的动力学和鲸鱼流量而造成的。