Vaneck 預測比特幣到 2050 年將達到 290 萬美元

資產管理公司 Vaneck 上週發布了一份題為《比特幣 2050 年估值情境：全球交易媒介與儲備資產》的報告。

Asset management firm Vaneck has released a new report that projects bitcoin (BTC) could reach a valuation of $2.9 million per coin by 2050, emerging as a global medium of exchange and reserve currency. The report, titled “Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset,” was published on March 23.

資產管理公司 Vaneck 發布了一份新報告，預計到 2050 年，比特幣 (BTC) 的估值將達到每枚 290 萬美元，成為全球交易媒介和儲備貨幣。該報告題為“比特幣 2050 年估值情境：全球交易媒介和儲備資產”，於 3 月 23 日發布。

According to the report, prepared by Vaneck’s digital assets research team, led by Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, the projection is based on several assumptions, including BTC being used to settle 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade. Additionally, the report anticipates that central banks will allocate 2.5% of their assets to BTC.

該報告由數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和資深投資分析師 Patrick Bush 領導的 Vaneck 數位資產研究團隊編寫，該預測基於多項假設，包括 BTC 用於結算全球國際貿易的 10%，以及國內貿易佔5% 。此外，報告預計央行將把 2.5% 的資產分配給 BTC。

“By 2050, we see bitcoin (BTC) solidifying its position as a key international medium of exchange, ultimately becoming one of the world’s reserve currencies,” Sigel and Bush write in the report. “It is conceivable that by 2050 bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of the globe’s international trade and 5% of the world’s domestic trade. This scenario would result in central banks holding 2.5% of their assets in BTC.”

「到 2050 年，我們看到比特幣 (BTC) 鞏固其作為主要國際交易媒介的地位，最終成為世界儲備貨幣之一，」西格爾和布希在報告中寫道。 「可以想像，到2050年，比特幣可用於結算全球10%的國際貿易和5%的全球國內貿易。這種情況將導致央行持有 2.5% 的資產為 BTC。

The report further details the methodology used to arrive at the $2.9 million price projection:

該報告進一步詳細介紹了得出 290 萬美元價格預測所使用的方法：

“Using assumptions about global growth, investor BTC demand, and bitcoin’s turnover, we apply a velocity of money equation to suggest a potential price of $2.9M per bitcoin, translating to a total market cap of $61 trillion.”

「使用關於全球成長、投資者 BTC 需求和比特幣週轉率的假設，我們應用貨幣流通速度方程式得出每個比特幣的潛在價格為 290 萬美元，相當於總市值為 61 兆美元。”

Moreover, the report also predicts that Layer-2 (L2) solutions built on the bitcoin network could collectively reach a valuation of $7.6 trillion, which would represent approximately 12% of BTC’s total value. This projection is based on Vaneck’s existing framework for valuing Ethereum (ETH) L2s.

此外，該報告還預測，基於比特幣網路的 Layer-2 (L2) 解決方案的估值總計可達 7.6 兆美元，約佔 BTC 總價值的 12%。該預測基於 Vaneck 現有的以太坊 (ETH) L2 估值框架。

“Applying our existing framework for valuing Ethereum L2s, we estimate that Bitcoin L2s could collectively be worth $7.6T, approximately 12% of BTC’s total value,” the report states.

報告指出：“應用我們現有的以太坊 L2 估值框架，我們估計比特幣 L2 的總價值可能為 7.6T 美元，約佔 BTC 總價值的 12%。”

The report highlights that as confidence in current reserve currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen, continues to wane amid shifting global GDP and increasing concerns over property rights, bitcoin’s trustless, neutral, and immutable monetary policy positions the cryptocurrency as a viable alternative.

報告強調，隨著全球 GDP 變化和對產權的擔憂日益加劇，人們對美元、歐元、英鎊和日圓等當前儲備貨幣的信心持續減弱，比特幣的去信任、中立和不可改變的貨幣政策使加密貨幣作為可行的替代方案。

Despite acknowledging scalability challenges, the report expresses optimism that L2 solutions and potential software upgrades will enhance bitcoin’s adoption in international trade and as a reserve currency.

儘管承認可擴展性方面的挑戰，但該報告樂觀地認為，L2 解決方案和潛在的軟體升級將增強比特幣在國際貿易中的採用以及作為儲備貨幣的地位。

“Bitcoin’s role in the future financial landscape is set to be outsized due to declining confidence in current reserve currencies,” Vaneck further explains in the report. “This is especially true given the shifting global GDP and concerns over property rights, which make bitcoin’s trustless, neutral, and immutable monetary policy a viable alternative.”

「由於對當前儲備貨幣的信心下降，比特幣在未來金融格局中的作用將變得巨大，」瓦內克在報告中進一步解釋。 「考慮到全球 GDP 的變化和對產權的擔憂，這一點尤其正確，這使得比特幣的去信任、中立和不變的貨幣政策成為可行的替代方案。”