Vaneck 预测比特币到 2050 年将达到 290 万美元

资产管理公司 Vaneck 上周发布了一份题为《比特币 2050 年估值情景：全球交易媒介和储备资产》的报告。

Asset management firm Vaneck has released a new report that projects bitcoin (BTC) could reach a valuation of $2.9 million per coin by 2050, emerging as a global medium of exchange and reserve currency. The report, titled “Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset,” was published on March 23.

资产管理公司 Vaneck 发布了一份新报告，预计到 2050 年，比特币 (BTC) 的估值将达到每枚 290 万美元，成为全球交易媒介和储备货币。该报告题为“比特币 2050 年估值情景：全球交易媒介和储备资产”，于 3 月 23 日发布。

According to the report, prepared by Vaneck’s digital assets research team, led by Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, the projection is based on several assumptions, including BTC being used to settle 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade. Additionally, the report anticipates that central banks will allocate 2.5% of their assets to BTC.

该报告由数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和高级投资分析师 Patrick Bush 领导的 Vaneck 数字资产研究团队编写，该预测基于多项假设，包括 BTC 用于结算全球国际贸易的 10%，以及国内贸易占5%。此外，报告预计央行将把 2.5% 的资产分配给 BTC。

“By 2050, we see bitcoin (BTC) solidifying its position as a key international medium of exchange, ultimately becoming one of the world’s reserve currencies,” Sigel and Bush write in the report. “It is conceivable that by 2050 bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of the globe’s international trade and 5% of the world’s domestic trade. This scenario would result in central banks holding 2.5% of their assets in BTC.”

“到 2050 年，我们看到比特币 (BTC) 巩固其作为主要国际交易媒介的地位，最终成为世界储备货币之一，”西格尔和布什在报告中写道。 “可以想象，到2050年，比特币可用于结算全球10%的国际贸易和5%的全球国内贸易。这种情况将导致央行持有 2.5% 的资产为 BTC。”

The report further details the methodology used to arrive at the $2.9 million price projection:

该报告进一步详细介绍了得出 290 万美元价格预测所使用的方法：

“Using assumptions about global growth, investor BTC demand, and bitcoin’s turnover, we apply a velocity of money equation to suggest a potential price of $2.9M per bitcoin, translating to a total market cap of $61 trillion.”

“使用关于全球增长、投资者 BTC 需求和比特币周转率的假设，我们应用货币流通速度方程得出每个比特币的潜在价格为 290 万美元，相当于总市值为 61 万亿美元。”

Moreover, the report also predicts that Layer-2 (L2) solutions built on the bitcoin network could collectively reach a valuation of $7.6 trillion, which would represent approximately 12% of BTC’s total value. This projection is based on Vaneck’s existing framework for valuing Ethereum (ETH) L2s.

此外，该报告还预测，基于比特币网络的 Layer-2 (L2) 解决方案的估值总计可达 7.6 万亿美元，约占 BTC 总价值的 12%。该预测基于 Vaneck 现有的以太坊 (ETH) L2 估值框架。

“Applying our existing framework for valuing Ethereum L2s, we estimate that Bitcoin L2s could collectively be worth $7.6T, approximately 12% of BTC’s total value,” the report states.

报告指出：“应用我们现有的以太坊 L2 估值框架，我们估计比特币 L2 的总价值可能为 7.6T 美元，约占 BTC 总价值的 12%。”

The report highlights that as confidence in current reserve currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, pound sterling, and yen, continues to wane amid shifting global GDP and increasing concerns over property rights, bitcoin’s trustless, neutral, and immutable monetary policy positions the cryptocurrency as a viable alternative.

报告强调，随着全球 GDP 变化和对产权的担忧日益加剧，人们对美元、欧元、英镑和日元等当前储备货币的信心持续减弱，比特币的去信任、中立和不可改变的货币政策使加密货币作为可行的替代方案。

Despite acknowledging scalability challenges, the report expresses optimism that L2 solutions and potential software upgrades will enhance bitcoin’s adoption in international trade and as a reserve currency.

尽管承认可扩展性方面的挑战，但该报告乐观地认为，L2 解决方案和潜在的软件升级将增强比特币在国际贸易中的采用以及作为储备货币的地位。

“Bitcoin’s role in the future financial landscape is set to be outsized due to declining confidence in current reserve currencies,” Vaneck further explains in the report. “This is especially true given the shifting global GDP and concerns over property rights, which make bitcoin’s trustless, neutral, and immutable monetary policy a viable alternative.”

“由于对当前储备货币的信心下降，比特币在未来金融格局中的作用将变得巨大，”瓦内克在报告中进一步解释道。 “考虑到全球 GDP 的变化和对产权的担忧，这一点尤其正确，这使得比特币的去信任、中立和不变的货币政策成为可行的替代方案。”