美元/CAD突破手錶：美國數據燃料利率投機

USD/CAD的眼睛突破了美國的數據，並轉移了利率期望。是1.40，還是假釀造？

USD/CAD Breakout Watch: US Data Fuels Interest Rate Speculation

美元/CAD突破手錶：美國數據燃料利率投機

The USD/CAD pair is making moves, driven by solid US economic data and evolving expectations around interest rates. Will this breakout last, or is it a head fake? Let's dive in.

美元/CAD對正在採取行動，這是由美國經濟數據紮實的驅動以及對利率的期望不斷發展的。這個突破會持續嗎？還是頭是假的？讓我們潛水。

The Data-Driven Dollar

數據驅動的美元

Despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and hints at more to come, the US dollar has been surprisingly strong. Why? It's all about the data, baby! Recent figures, including Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and Q2 GDP revisions, have all exceeded expectations, painting a rosy picture of the US economy.

儘管美聯儲最近降低了利率和未來的提示，但美元卻令人驚訝地強勁。為什麼？寶貝，這都是關於數據的！最近的數字，包括核心耐用商品訂單，初始失業索賠和第二季度GDP修訂，都超出了預期，對美國經濟的刻薄繪畫。

This strong data has led to a shift in expectations for future rate cuts. The CME's FedWatch tool shows a decrease in the projected probability of another rate cut next month. The market is now less certain about two rate cuts by year's end.

這些強大的數據導致對未來降低稅率的期望發生了變化。 CME的FedWatch工具顯示下個月降低率的預計概率有所下降。現在，到年底，市場對削減稅率的降低尚不確定。

USD/CAD Technicals: Breakout or Fakeout?

美元/CAD技術：突破還是假貨？

Technically, USD/CAD is testing 4-month highs above the 1.3925 resistance level. A sustained breakout here could pave the way for a move towards 1.40, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average converge.

從技術上講，美元/CAD正在測試高於1.3925電阻水平的高度4個月。這裡持續的突破可能為朝1.40的前進鋪平了道路，在1.40，斐波那契回回38.2％和200天移動平均線融合。

However, be warned! After periods of consolidation, "fakeout breakouts" are common. A reversal below 1.3925 could signal a return to the consolidation range, with a potential move back towards the 50-day EMA near 1.3800.

但是，請警告！經過一段時間的合併，“假突破”很普遍。低於1.3925的逆轉可能標誌著恢復到整合範圍，潛在的轉移向50天EMA接近1.3800。

Trump Tariffs and the Fed

特朗普關稅和美聯儲

Adding another layer to the mix, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks are set to take effect. These tariffs aim to boost US manufacturing and address trade imbalances. Meanwhile, former President Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates too high, adding further complexity to the monetary policy outlook.

在混合物中加上另一層，製藥，家具和重型卡車的新關稅將生效。這些關稅旨在提高美國製造業並解決貿易失衡。同時，前總統特朗普批評美聯儲保持利率過高，這增加了貨幣政策前景的複雜性。

The Interest Rate Puzzle

利率難題

The big question is whether the Fed will stick to its projected path of rate cuts in the face of strong economic data. If the data continues to impress, it's reasonable to be skeptical. All eyes will be on upcoming data releases, including the Core PCE report and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, as well as comments from FOMC policymakers.

最大的問題是，面對強大的經濟數據，美聯儲是否會堅持其預計的降低速度降低途徑。如果數據繼續給人留下深刻的印象，那麼持懷疑態度是合理的。所有人的目光都將關注即將發布的數據發布，包括核心PCE報告和非農業工資（NFP）發布，以及FOMC決策者的評論。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

USD/CAD is at a critical juncture. Strong US data is challenging the narrative of further Fed rate cuts, leading to a potential breakout scenario. But remember, the market is a fickle beast, and a fakeout is always a possibility. So, buckle up, keep an eye on the data, and get ready for a potentially volatile ride!

美元/CAD處於關鍵時刻。強大的美國數據挑戰了進一步的美聯儲降低稅率的敘述，從而導致了潛在的突破情況。但是請記住，市場是一種善變的野獸，而假貨始終是一種可能性。因此，扣緊，請密切關注數據，並準備好進行揮發性的騎行！