美元/CAD突破手表：美国数据燃料利率投机

USD/CAD的眼睛突破了美国的数据，并转移了利率期望。是1.40，还是假酿造？

USD/CAD Breakout Watch: US Data Fuels Interest Rate Speculation

美元/CAD突破手表：美国数据燃料利率投机

The USD/CAD pair is making moves, driven by solid US economic data and evolving expectations around interest rates. Will this breakout last, or is it a head fake? Let's dive in.

美元/CAD对正在采取行动，这是由美国经济数据扎实的驱动以及对利率的期望不断发展的。这个突破会持续吗？还是头是假的？让我们潜水。

The Data-Driven Dollar

数据驱动的美元

Despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and hints at more to come, the US dollar has been surprisingly strong. Why? It's all about the data, baby! Recent figures, including Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and Q2 GDP revisions, have all exceeded expectations, painting a rosy picture of the US economy.

尽管美联储最近降低了利率和未来的提示，但美元却令人惊讶地强劲。为什么？宝贝，这都是关于数据的！最近的数字，包括核心耐用商品订单，初始失业索赔和第二季度GDP修订，都超出了预期，对美国经济的刻薄绘画。

This strong data has led to a shift in expectations for future rate cuts. The CME's FedWatch tool shows a decrease in the projected probability of another rate cut next month. The market is now less certain about two rate cuts by year's end.

这些强大的数据导致对未来降低税率的期望发生了变化。 CME的FedWatch工具显示下个月降低率的预计概率有所下降。现在，到年底，市场对削减税率的降低尚不确定。

USD/CAD Technicals: Breakout or Fakeout?

美元/CAD技术：突破还是假货？

Technically, USD/CAD is testing 4-month highs above the 1.3925 resistance level. A sustained breakout here could pave the way for a move towards 1.40, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average converge.

从技术上讲，美元/CAD正在测试高于1.3925电阻水平的高度4个月。这里持续的突破可能为朝1.40的前进铺平了道路，在1.40，斐波那契回回38.2％和200天移动平均线融合。

However, be warned! After periods of consolidation, "fakeout breakouts" are common. A reversal below 1.3925 could signal a return to the consolidation range, with a potential move back towards the 50-day EMA near 1.3800.

但是，请警告！经过一段时间的合并，“假突破”很普遍。低于1.3925的逆转可能标志着恢复到整合范围，潜在的转移向50天EMA接近1.3800。

Trump Tariffs and the Fed

特朗普关税和美联储

Adding another layer to the mix, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks are set to take effect. These tariffs aim to boost US manufacturing and address trade imbalances. Meanwhile, former President Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates too high, adding further complexity to the monetary policy outlook.

在混合物中加上另一层，制药，家具和重型卡车的新关税将生效。这些关税旨在提高美国制造业并解决贸易失衡。同时，前总统特朗普批评美联储保持利率过高，这增加了货币政策前景的复杂性。

The Interest Rate Puzzle

利率难题

The big question is whether the Fed will stick to its projected path of rate cuts in the face of strong economic data. If the data continues to impress, it's reasonable to be skeptical. All eyes will be on upcoming data releases, including the Core PCE report and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, as well as comments from FOMC policymakers.

最大的问题是，面对强大的经济数据，美联储是否会坚持其预计的降低速度降低途径。如果数据继续给人留下深刻的印象，那么持怀疑态度是合理的。所有人的目光都将关注即将发布的数据发布，包括核心PCE报告和非农业工资（NFP）发布，以及FOMC决策者的评论。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

USD/CAD is at a critical juncture. Strong US data is challenging the narrative of further Fed rate cuts, leading to a potential breakout scenario. But remember, the market is a fickle beast, and a fakeout is always a possibility. So, buckle up, keep an eye on the data, and get ready for a potentially volatile ride!

美元/CAD处于关键时刻。强大的美国数据挑战了进一步的美联储降低税率的叙述，从而导致了潜在的突破情况。但是请记住，市场是一种善变的野兽，而假货始终是一种可能性。因此，扣紧，请密切关注数据，并准备好进行挥发性的骑行！