了解 Memecoin 的興衰：深入探討市場對快速收益和操縱敏感性的痴迷

在 2024 年 11 月 4 日發布的全面分析中，全球最大加密貨幣交易所的研究部門幣安研究院揭示了迷因幣市場的嚴峻現實。

Binance Research, the analytical division of the world's leading cryptocurrency exchange, has conducted an extensive analysis of the meme coin market, revealing some sobering truths.

幣安研究院是全球領先的加密貨幣交易所的分析部門，對模因幣市場進行了廣泛的分析，並揭示了一些發人深省的事實。

The report, titled Understanding the Rise of Memecoins and spearheaded by Binance's Macro Researcher Josh Wong, highlights that a staggering 97% of meme coins have experienced a drastic decline in trading volume, rendering them practically defunct. This underscores the inherent volatility and susceptibility of these tokens to market manipulation.

這份題為《了解 Memecoins 的崛起》的報告由幣安宏觀研究員 Josh Wong 牽頭，強調令人震驚的是，97% 的 Memecoin 經歷了交易量的急劇下降，導致它們實際上已經不復存在。這強調了這些代幣固有的波動性和對市場操縱的敏感度。

In Wong's words: Picks for you

用黃的話來說：為您挑選

“The majority of memecoins born from the frenzy of 2023 and 2024 have proven to be fleeting. A full 97% have already died, reaching near-zero trading volumes.”

「事實證明，在 2023 年和 2024 年的《狂熱》中誕生的大多數迷因幣都轉瞬即逝。整整 97% 的人已經死亡，交易量幾乎為零。

This rapid rise and subsequent collapse, in the case of many of these tokens, speaks to the market's infatuation with quick gains and speculative trading, often at the peril of retail investors.

對於許多此類代幣來說，這種快速上漲和隨後的崩潰說明了市場對快速收益和投機交易的迷戀，而這往往讓散戶投資者面臨風險。

Meme coins' high volatility

Meme幣的高波動性

The report, shared with Finbold, also reveals that meme coins, owing to their simplicity and accessibility, are proliferating at an unmatched pace.

與芬博爾德分享的這份報告還顯示，迷因幣由於其簡單性和可訪問性，正在以無與倫比的速度激增。

Over 75% of these tokens emerged within the last year alone, enabling them to garner market interest and forge communities at a rate far swifter than traditional technology-backed altcoins.

僅去年一年就出現了超過 75% 的代幣，使它們能夠以比傳統技術支援的山寨幣快得多的速度贏得市場興趣並建立社區。

As Wong explains:

正如黃解釋的那樣：

“The time-to-convert for a memeccoin consumer is much shorter than that for a technology-focused altcoin investor, leading to a rapid propagation of their narratives.”

“memeccoin 消費者的轉換時間比專注於技術的山寨幣投資者要短得多，從而導致他們的敘述迅速傳播。”

This fast-paced environment has seen capital flowing into memecoins at breakneck speed. For instance, the memecoin WIF attained a $1 billion market cap in only 104 days, compared to Shiba Inu's (SHIB) 279 days and Dogecoin's (DOGE)—a veteran in the meme market—eight years.

在這種快節奏的環境下，資本以極快的速度流入迷因幣。例如，模因幣 WIF 僅用了 104 天就達到了 10 億美元的市值，而柴犬 (SHIB) 則需要 279 天，而模因市場老手狗幣 (DOGE) 則需要 8 年。

The ease with which new memecoins can be created has resulted in a continuous influx of novel tokens, each vying for attention and investment in an increasingly competitive market.

創建新迷因幣的便捷性導致新型代幣不斷湧入，每種代幣都在競爭日益激烈的市場中爭奪注意力和投資。

While the majority of memecoins struggle to maintain relevance, a select few, such as DOGE and Shiba Inu, have shown longevity. Dogecoin, now over a decade old, and SHIB, at four years, embody the rare exceptions in a market dominated by short-lived tokens.

雖然大多數模因幣都在努力維持相關性，但 DOGE 和 Shiba Inu 等少數模因幣卻表現出了長久的生命力。狗狗幣已有十多年的歷史，而 SHIB 已有四年的歷史，它們體現了由短期代幣主導的市場中罕見的例外。

However, their success highlights the broader trend—for most meme coins, the survival rate is remarkably low, with only a handful capable of building sustainable ecosystems and dedicated communities.

然而，它們的成功凸顯了更廣泛的趨勢——對於大多數迷因幣來說，存活率非常低，只有少數能夠建立可持續的生態系統和專門的社區。

Risks of Pump-and-Dump schemes

拉高拋售計畫的風險

Despite the allure of quick gains, Binance Research also sounds the alarm on the substantial risks involved.

儘管有快速收益的誘惑，幣安研究院也對所涉及的巨大風險發出了警報。

“The rapid rate of growth and speculation makes memecoins an investment vehicle with high potential for outsized returns,” Wong says, “but their heavy reliance on market sentiment, with little else to support their valuations, also makes them an extremely risky asset class.”

「快速的成長和投機使得迷因幣成為一種具有巨大回報潛力的投資工具，」Wong 說，「但它們嚴重依賴市場情緒，幾乎沒有其他因素來支持其估值，也使它們成為風險極高的資產類別。

Furthermore, the report acknowledges that the meme coin market is prone to exploitation tactics, particularly pump-and-dump schemes designed to create exit liquidity for early adopters and insiders at the expense of retail traders. While meme coins offer enhanced transparency and ease of access, these attributes have not entirely shielded investors from predatory practices.

此外，該報告承認，模因幣市場很容易出現剝削策略，特別是旨在以犧牲零售交易者為代價為早期採用者和內部人士創造退出流動性的拉高拋售計劃。雖然模因幣提供了更高的透明度和更便捷的獲取方式，但這些屬性並沒有完全保護投資者免受掠奪性行為的侵害。

As new memecoins continue to flood the market, investors are advised to proceed with caution, recognizing that the potential for outsized gains is matched by equally outsized risks. For every DOGE or SHIB that defies the odds, dozens of tokens inevitably fade into obscurity.

隨著新的模因幣繼續湧入市場，建議投資者謹慎行事，並認識到巨大收益的潛力與同樣巨大的風險相匹配。對於每一個不畏困難的 DOGE 或 SHIB，數十種代幣都不可避免地會消失。