特朗普晚餐：一個完美的“期望透支”的實驗

根據鍊鍊數據，晚餐宣布後的48小時內，特朗普令牌的交易量飆升了300％

On May 22, 2025, protesters held up signs reading "Crypto Corruption" outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, while inside the club, 220 "whales" holding millions of dollars worth of Trump tokens (TRUMP) were waiting to have dinner with the former president. At the same time, the price of the TRUMP token staged an absurd roller coaster ride: at 17:00 p.m. Beijing time on the 22nd, the price rose violently from $14 to $16, but fell back to $14 at 4:00 a.m. on the 23rd before the dinner started.

2025年5月22日，抗議者舉起了簽名，閱讀了弗吉尼亞州斯特林的特朗普國家高爾夫俱樂部外的“加密腐敗”，而在俱樂部內，有220個“鯨魚”持有價值數百萬美元的特朗普令牌（特朗普）正在等待與前總統共進晚餐。同時，特朗普代幣的價格上演了一次荒謬的過山車騎行：北京時間17:00 pm，價格從14美元猛烈上漲至16美元，但在晚餐開始前23日上午4:00降至14美元。

Behind this farce, the ultimate game between "market signals" and "real events" is being staged - is it the facts that change the market, or is the market fabricating facts?

在這場鬧劇的背後，“市場信號”和“真實事件”之間的終極遊戲正在上演 - 是改變市場的事實，還是市場構成事實？

1. Trump Dinner: A Perfect Experiment of “Expectation Overdraft”

1。王牌晚餐：一個完美的“期望透支”的實驗

1. FOMO on the eve of a dinner party

1.晚宴前夕

According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the announcement of the dinner, the trading volume of TRUMP tokens surged by 300%, the average holding cost of 220 "whales" was as high as $1.78 million, and the token price once soared by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner officially started on the 22nd, US time, the price had already fallen back in advance - the market had already harvested the "expected narrative".

根據鍊鍊數據，晚餐宣布後的48小時內，特朗普令牌的交易量飆升了300％，平均持有成本為220個“鯨魚”高達178萬美元，而代幣價格曾經飆升50％。具有諷刺意味的是，當晚宴在美國時代正式開始時，價格已經提前下降了 - 市場已經收穫了“預期的敘述”。

Key logic chain

關鍵邏輯鏈

- Signal propagation > Facts: The price peak occurred during the news diffusion period (Beijing time on the 22nd), not when the event landed (late on the 22nd, US time)

- 信號傳播>事實：價格峰發生在新聞擴散期（22日的北京時間），而不是事件降落時（美國時間22日，時間晚）

- Liquidity trap: Although TRUMP’s daily trading volume exceeds $3.8 billion, the spot depth is less than $5 million, and the market maker only needs $20 million to control the market

- 流動性陷阱：儘管特朗普的每日交易量超過38億美元，但現貨深度少於500萬美元，做市商只需要2000萬美元來控制市場

2. The “self-fulfilling prophecy” of political narratives

2。政治敘事的“自我實現的預言”

Trump's team tied token holdings to political resources (such as the right to visit the White House), which is essentially the securitization of "social capital". This model relies on continuous hot spot stimulation. Once the narrative stagnates, the price collapses - just as TRUMP fell again after the Democratic Party proposed to ban "crypto corruption" on May 23.

特朗普的團隊將代幣的持股與政治資源（例如訪問白宮的權利）相關聯，這實際上是“社會資本”的證券化。該模型依賴於連續的熱點刺激。一旦敘述停滯不前，價格就會崩潰 - 就像特朗普在民主黨提議在5月23日禁止“加密腐敗”的情況下再次下降。

2. Do you still remember ETF approval: the “information arbitrage war” behind the collapse of the SEC website

2。您仍然記得ETF批准：SEC網站崩潰背後的“信息套利戰爭”

ETF frenzy in 2024: delays, congestion and expectation gap: When the SEC website crashed briefly due to the ETF approval news, the market had already completed pricing through "internal leaks" 24 hours in advance, and institutions took advantage of the good news to sell

ETF Frenzy在2024年：延誤，擁堵和期望差距：當SEC網站因ETF批准新聞而短暫崩潰時，市場已經提前24小時通過“內部洩漏”來完成定價，機構利用了好消息來出售好消息

Market rules

市場規則

- Buy expectations, sell facts: When the probability of ETF approval rises to 90%, the price increase has already been overdrawn by 80%.

- 購買期望，出售事實：當ETF批准的可能性上升到90％時，價格上漲已經透支了80％。

- Huge profits from information asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predict the approval progress through regulatory documents, but retail investors are trapped in the cycle of "FOMO chasing ups and panic selling"

- 信息不對稱的巨額利潤：彭博分析師通過監管文件預測批准的進展，但散戶投資者被困在“ Fomo Chasing Ups和Panic Salking”的循環中。

3. “Narrative Economics” in the Crypto Market: Who is Creating the Signals?

3。加密市場中的“敘事經濟學”：誰在創建信號？

1. The trinity of bookmakers, media and algorithms

1。莊家，媒體和算法的三位一體

- Market maker control: 80% of TRUMP tokens are controlled by the Trump camp, and unlocking events can accurately create selling pressure

- 做市商控制：80％的特朗普令牌由特朗普營控制，解鎖活動可以準確造成銷售壓力

- Media amplifier: "News flash" from institutions such as Cointelegraph and Bloomberg often become tools for price manipulation, such as "SEC delays ETF approval" causing panic

- 媒體放大器：Cointelegraph和Bloomberg等機構的“新聞閃光燈”經常成為價格操縱的工具，例如“ SEC延遲ETF批准”引起恐慌

- Algorithmic resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO emotions through recommendation algorithms, forming a "self-reinforcing trend"

- 算法共鳴：社交平台通過推薦算法擴大FOMO情緒，形成“自我增強趨勢”

2. The shift from “fact-driven” to “signal-driven”

2。從“事實驅動”到“信號驅動”的轉變

When market movements no longer depend on physical progress, but on the “pricing of possibilities”, the signal is the fact. For example:

當市場運動不再取決於身體進步，而是取決於“可能性的定價”時，信號就是事實。例如：

Trump tweets: "America will become the capital of cryptocurrencies" can make SOL rise 70% in a single day

特朗普的推文：“美國將成為加密貨幣的首都”可以使SOL在一天之內增長70％

Conclusion: The Truman Show of Crypto Market

結論：加密貨幣市場的杜魯門展覽

In this virtual theater constructed by expectations, signals and algorithms, real events are just a footnote to the narrative. When Trump raised his glass at the dinner, the market had already turned to the next hot spot - perhaps a tweet from the SEC or an ambiguous policy draft. The only thing investors can be sure of is uncertainty itself.

在這個由期望，信號和算法建立的虛擬劇院中，真實事件只是敘事的腳註。當特朗普在晚餐時舉起杯子時，市場已經轉向了下一個熱點 - 也許是SEC的推文或模棱兩可的政策草案。投資者唯一可以確定的是不確定性本身。