The Trump Dinner: A Perfect Experiment of “Expectation Overdraft”

According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the announcement of the dinner, the trading volume of TRUMP tokens surged by 300%

On May 22, 2025, protesters held up signs reading "Crypto Corruption" outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, while inside the club, 220 "whales" holding millions of dollars worth of Trump tokens (TRUMP) were waiting to have dinner with the former president. At the same time, the price of the TRUMP token staged an absurd roller coaster ride: at 17:00 p.m. Beijing time on the 22nd, the price rose violently from $14 to $16, but fell back to $14 at 4:00 a.m. on the 23rd before the dinner started.

Behind this farce, the ultimate game between "market signals" and "real events" is being staged - is it the facts that change the market, or is the market fabricating facts?

1. Trump Dinner: A Perfect Experiment of “Expectation Overdraft”

1. FOMO on the eve of a dinner party

According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the announcement of the dinner, the trading volume of TRUMP tokens surged by 300%, the average holding cost of 220 "whales" was as high as $1.78 million, and the token price once soared by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner officially started on the 22nd, US time, the price had already fallen back in advance - the market had already harvested the "expected narrative".

Key logic chain

- Signal propagation > Facts: The price peak occurred during the news diffusion period (Beijing time on the 22nd), not when the event landed (late on the 22nd, US time)

- Liquidity trap: Although TRUMP’s daily trading volume exceeds $3.8 billion, the spot depth is less than $5 million, and the market maker only needs $20 million to control the market

2. The “self-fulfilling prophecy” of political narratives

Trump's team tied token holdings to political resources (such as the right to visit the White House), which is essentially the securitization of "social capital". This model relies on continuous hot spot stimulation. Once the narrative stagnates, the price collapses - just as TRUMP fell again after the Democratic Party proposed to ban "crypto corruption" on May 23.

2. Do you still remember ETF approval: the “information arbitrage war” behind the collapse of the SEC website

ETF frenzy in 2024: delays, congestion and expectation gap: When the SEC website crashed briefly due to the ETF approval news, the market had already completed pricing through "internal leaks" 24 hours in advance, and institutions took advantage of the good news to sell

Market rules

- Buy expectations, sell facts: When the probability of ETF approval rises to 90%, the price increase has already been overdrawn by 80%.

- Huge profits from information asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predict the approval progress through regulatory documents, but retail investors are trapped in the cycle of "FOMO chasing ups and panic selling"

3. “Narrative Economics” in the Crypto Market: Who is Creating the Signals?

1. The trinity of bookmakers, media and algorithms

- Market maker control: 80% of TRUMP tokens are controlled by the Trump camp, and unlocking events can accurately create selling pressure

- Media amplifier: "News flash" from institutions such as Cointelegraph and Bloomberg often become tools for price manipulation, such as "SEC delays ETF approval" causing panic

- Algorithmic resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO emotions through recommendation algorithms, forming a "self-reinforcing trend"

2. The shift from “fact-driven” to “signal-driven”

When market movements no longer depend on physical progress, but on the “pricing of possibilities”, the signal is the fact. For example:

Trump tweets: "America will become the capital of cryptocurrencies" can make SOL rise 70% in a single day

Conclusion: The Truman Show of Crypto Market

In this virtual theater constructed by expectations, signals and algorithms, real events are just a footnote to the narrative. When Trump raised his glass at the dinner, the market had already turned to the next hot spot - perhaps a tweet from the SEC or an ambiguous policy draft. The only thing investors can be sure of is uncertainty itself.