Toncoin 面臨三大技術風險，可能在未來幾週內出現看跌逆轉

Toncoin 是今年加密貨幣產業的大贏家，它攀升至第八大加密貨幣。

Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) has been one of the biggest gainers in the crypto industry this year, climbing the ranks to become the eighth-biggest coin. It has soared by over 246% this year and by 455% in the past 12 months, beating the likes of Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH).

Toncoin（CRYPTO：TON）是今年加密貨幣產業漲幅最大的貨幣之一，躋身第八大加密貨幣。它今年飆升了 246% 以上，在過去 12 個月裡飆升了 455%，擊敗了卡爾達諾 (CRYPTO: ADA) 和 Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) 等貨幣。

Toncoin’s encouraging metrics

Toncoin 令人鼓舞的指標

Toncoin has had strong fundamentals behind it. Telegram, its ‘parent company’, has grown to become a leading social media firm with almost a billion users. At the same time, the TON Blockchain has become the 10th biggest chain in the world, overtaking the likes of Optimism (CRYPTO: OP), Sui (CRYPTO: SUI), Cronos (CRYPTO: CRO), and Mantle (CRYPTO: MTL).

Toncoin 背後有強大的基礎。 Telegram 是其“母公司”，現已發展成為擁有近 10 億用戶的領先社群媒體公司。同時，TON 區塊鏈已成為全球第十大鏈，超過了 Optimism (CRYPTO: OP)、Sui (CRYPTO: SUI)、Cronos (CRYPTO: CRO) 和 Mantle (CRYPTO: MTL) 等。

In parallel, Toncoin has benefited from the ongoing tap-to-earn boom that has seen the likes of Hamster Kombat, TapSwap, and Notcoin attract millions of users globally.

同時，Toncoin 也受惠於持續不斷的點擊賺錢熱潮，Hamster Kombat、TapSwap 和 Notcoin 等遊戲在全球吸引了數百萬用戶。

Other strong on-chain metrics have been evident in Toncoin. Data by Tonstats shows that the fees collected by the network rose to their highest level since May while the number of transactions per day moved to over 5.77 million.

其他強大的鏈上指標在 Toncoin 中也很明顯。 Tonstats 的數據顯示，該網路收取的費用升至 5 月以來的最高水平，而每日交易數量超過 577 萬筆。

Other on-chain metrics like the number of on-chain wallet activations and monthly active wallets have also risen in the past few days.

其他鏈上指標，如鏈上錢包啟動數量和每月活躍錢包數量在過去幾天也有所增加。

Still, despite these numbers, the Toncoin price faces three technical risks that could see it have a bearish reversal in the coming weeks.

儘管如此，儘管有這些數字，Toncoin 價格仍面臨三個技術風險，可能會在未來幾週內出現看跌逆轉。

Rising wedge, low volume, and bearish divergence

上升楔形、低成交量和看跌背離

First, as shown above, the TON price has formed a rising wedge chart pattern, which I have indicated in green. This pattern is formed when an asset’s price moves upwards in a narrowing range. It is characterised by two converging trendlines and decreasing volume.

首先，如上所示，TON 價格形成了上升楔形圖表模式，我用綠色表示。當資產價格在窄幅區間內上漲時，就會形成這種模式。它的特點是兩條趨勢線匯聚且成交量減少。

In most cases, a rising wedge leads to a bearish breakout when the two lines near their convergence, which is about to happen. If the pattern works well, it means that the TON price could drop to the psychological point at $5.

在大多數情況下，當兩條線接近收斂（即將發生）時，上升楔形會導致看跌突破。如果該模式運作良好，則意味著 TON 價格可能會跌至 5 美元的心理點。

Second, Toncoin price has also formed a bearish divergence pattern, as shown in the MACD and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators above. While TON has been in a steady rise, the two indicators have constantly made a downward trend. Like the wedge pattern, a bearish divergence leads to a bearish breakout over time.

其次，Toncoin價格也形成了看跌背離模式，如上面的MACD和相對強弱指數（RSI）指標所示。在TON穩定上升的同時，兩項指標卻不斷呈現下降趨勢。與楔形形態一樣，隨著時間的推移，看跌背離會導致看跌突破。

Finally, TON’s daily traded volume has been a bit weak compared to its market cap. As shown above, the daily volume has been less than $300 million in the past few weeks. While this is still a huge sum, it is smaller than that of smaller tokens like Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) and Dogwifhat (CRYPTO: DOG). Lower volume means that the recent rally had limited breadth.

最後，TON 的日交易量與其市值相比有點弱。如上圖所示，過去幾週日交易量不到 3 億美元。雖然這仍然是一個巨大的數字，但它比 Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) 和 Dogwifhat (CRYPTO: DOG) 等較小的代幣要小。成交量減少意味著近期反彈的幅度有限。

Altogether, these risks mean that the TON price is at risk of more downside unless it sees a strong catalyst in the coming weeks.

總而言之，這些風險意味著 TON 價格面臨進一步下行的風險，除非在未來幾週內看到強勁的催化劑。