Toncoin 面临三大技术风险，可能会在未来几周内出现看跌逆转

Toncoin 是今年加密货币行业的大赢家，它攀升至第八大加密货币。

Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) has been one of the biggest gainers in the crypto industry this year, climbing the ranks to become the eighth-biggest coin. It has soared by over 246% this year and by 455% in the past 12 months, beating the likes of Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH).

Toncoin（CRYPTO：TON）是今年加密货币行业涨幅最大的货币之一，排名上升为第八大货币。它今年飙升了 246% 以上，在过去 12 个月里飙升了 455%，击败了卡尔达诺 (CRYPTO: ADA) 和 Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) 等货币。

Toncoin’s encouraging metrics

Toncoin 令人鼓舞的指标

Toncoin has had strong fundamentals behind it. Telegram, its ‘parent company’, has grown to become a leading social media firm with almost a billion users. At the same time, the TON Blockchain has become the 10th biggest chain in the world, overtaking the likes of Optimism (CRYPTO: OP), Sui (CRYPTO: SUI), Cronos (CRYPTO: CRO), and Mantle (CRYPTO: MTL).

Toncoin 背后有着强大的基础。 Telegram 是其“母公司”，现已发展成为拥有近 10 亿用户的领先社交媒体公司。与此同时，TON 区块链已成为全球第十大链，超过了 Optimism (CRYPTO: OP)、Sui (CRYPTO: SUI)、Cronos (CRYPTO: CRO) 和 Mantle (CRYPTO: MTL) 等。

In parallel, Toncoin has benefited from the ongoing tap-to-earn boom that has seen the likes of Hamster Kombat, TapSwap, and Notcoin attract millions of users globally.

与此同时，Toncoin 也受益于持续不断的点击赚钱热潮，Hamster Kombat、TapSwap 和 Notcoin 等游戏在全球吸引了数百万用户。

Other strong on-chain metrics have been evident in Toncoin. Data by Tonstats shows that the fees collected by the network rose to their highest level since May while the number of transactions per day moved to over 5.77 million.

其他强大的链上指标在 Toncoin 中也很明显。 Tonstats 的数据显示，该网络收取的费用升至 5 月份以来的最高水平，而每日交易数量超过 577 万笔。

Other on-chain metrics like the number of on-chain wallet activations and monthly active wallets have also risen in the past few days.

其他链上指标，如链上钱包激活数量和每月活跃钱包数量在过去几天也有所增加。

Still, despite these numbers, the Toncoin price faces three technical risks that could see it have a bearish reversal in the coming weeks.

尽管如此，尽管有这些数字，Toncoin 价格仍面临三个技术风险，可能会在未来几周内出现看跌逆转。

Rising wedge, low volume, and bearish divergence

上升楔形、低成交量和看跌背离

First, as shown above, the TON price has formed a rising wedge chart pattern, which I have indicated in green. This pattern is formed when an asset’s price moves upwards in a narrowing range. It is characterised by two converging trendlines and decreasing volume.

首先，如上所示，TON 价格形成了上升楔形图表模式，我用绿色表示。当资产价格在窄幅区间内上涨时，就会形成这种模式。它的特点是两条趋势线汇聚且成交量减少。

In most cases, a rising wedge leads to a bearish breakout when the two lines near their convergence, which is about to happen. If the pattern works well, it means that the TON price could drop to the psychological point at $5.

在大多数情况下，当两条线接近收敛（即将发生）时，上升楔形会导致看跌突破。如果该模式运行良好，则意味着 TON 价格可能会跌至 5 美元的心理点。

Second, Toncoin price has also formed a bearish divergence pattern, as shown in the MACD and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators above. While TON has been in a steady rise, the two indicators have constantly made a downward trend. Like the wedge pattern, a bearish divergence leads to a bearish breakout over time.

其次，Toncoin价格也形成了看跌背离模式，如上面的MACD和相对强弱指数（RSI）指标所示。在TON稳步上升的同时，两项指标却不断呈现下降趋势。与楔形形态一样，随着时间的推移，看跌背离会导致看跌突破。

Finally, TON’s daily traded volume has been a bit weak compared to its market cap. As shown above, the daily volume has been less than $300 million in the past few weeks. While this is still a huge sum, it is smaller than that of smaller tokens like Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) and Dogwifhat (CRYPTO: DOG). Lower volume means that the recent rally had limited breadth.

最后，TON 的日交易量与其市值相比有点弱。如上图所示，过去几周日交易量不足 3 亿美元。虽然这仍然是一个巨大的数字，但它比 Pepe (CRYPTO: PEPE) 和 Dogwifhat (CRYPTO: DOG) 等较小的代币要小。成交量减少意味着近期反弹的幅度有限。

Altogether, these risks mean that the TON price is at risk of more downside unless it sees a strong catalyst in the coming weeks.

总而言之，这些风险意味着 TON 价格面临进一步下行的风险，除非在未来几周内看到强劲的催化剂。