隨著 Telegram 打擊力道加大，9 月 TON 價格面臨下跌 30% 的風險

儘管有所復甦，但技術指標表明 Toncoin 可能面臨繼續其普遍下跌趨勢的風險。

Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of Telegram-blockchain platform TON, has seen a bumpy ride in recent weeks. After taking a hit following Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest on Aug. 25, TON recovered swiftly with a 15% gain to above $5.15 by Sept. 9.

Toncoin (TON) 是 Telegram 區塊鏈平台 TON 的原生加密貨幣，最近幾週經歷了一段坎坷的旅程。 Telegram 創辦人 Pavel Durov 於 8 月 25 日被捕後遭受重創，TON 迅速恢復元氣，到 9 月 9 日漲幅達 15%，至 5.15 美元以上。

However, a technical indicator now suggests that Toncoin may be at risk of continuing its prevailing downtrend.

然而，現在的技術指標表明，Toncoin 可能面臨繼續其普遍下跌趨勢的風險。

Toncoin price risks 30% decline in September

9 月 Toncoin 價格面臨下跌 30% 的風險

Toncoin’s recent price recovery is part of a broader inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which is characterized by the formation of a rounding top followed by a period of consolidation.

Toncoin 最近的價格回升是更廣泛的反向杯柄形態的一部分，其特點是形成圓頂，隨後是一段盤整期。

A bearish continuation pattern, an inverse cup and handle typically resolves when the price breaks below the common neckline support and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the cup’s peak and neckline.

當價格跌破共同頸線支撐位並下跌至杯形峰值與頸線之間的最大距離時，看跌延續形態（即反向杯柄）通常會消失。

On Sept. 3, the TON/USDT pair entered the pattern’s breakdown stage after slipping below its neckline support of around $5. A week later, its price was testing the same neckline as resistance.

9 月 3 日，TON/USDT 貨幣對跌破 5 美元左右的頸線支撐位後進入該模式的崩潰階段。一週後，其價格測試了與阻力位相同的頸線。

After dropping to a low of $4.45 on Sept. 6, the TON/USDT pair recovered quickly, clocking in a 15% gain to cross the $5.15 mark on Sept. 9. A bearish technical formation suggests that the price may continue to slide. CryptoSlateチャートより

在 9 月 6 日跌至 4.45 美元的低點後，TON/USDT 貨幣對迅速反彈，9 月 9 日上漲 15%，突破 5.15 美元大關。 CryptoSlate チャートより

Retaking the neckline as support would likely invalidate the inverse-cup-and-handle pattern.

重新將頸線作為支撐位可能會使反杯柄形態失效。

However, a failed attempt to move back above the neckline after a successful retest would confirm that the previous support has flipped into resistance, indicating that sellers are still in control and the breakdown is likely to continue.

然而，在成功重新測試後，如果試圖回到頸線上方失敗，將證實先前的支撐位已轉變為阻力位，表明賣方仍在控制之中，並且跌破可能會繼續。

In that case, Toncoin’s downside target would be around $3.60, down approximately 30% from the current price levels.

在這種情況下，Toncoin 的下行目標將在 3.60 美元左右，比當前價格水準下降約 30%。

Crackdowns against Telegram, Durov intensify

對 Telegram 和杜羅夫的打壓力度加大

The bearish outlooks for Toncoin have intensified further due to its association with Telegram and Durov, primarily in the light of an ongoing global crackdown against the messaging app service.

由於 Toncoin 與 Telegram 和 Durov 的關聯，Toncoin 的悲觀前景進一步加劇，主要是因為全球範圍內持續打擊該訊息應用服務。

For instance, South Korea has joined the global crackdown on Telegram, investigating the platform for facilitating deepfake crimes.

例如，韓國加入了全球對 Telegram 的打擊行動，調查該平台是否助長了深度造假犯罪。

India, Telegram’s largest market with over 100 million users, also initiated a probe shortly after Durov’s arrest reports surfaced. Indonesia is considering blocking the platform due to inadequate content moderation.

印度是 ​​Telegram 最大的市場，擁有超過 1 億用戶，在杜羅夫被捕的報導浮出水面後不久，印度也啟動了調查。由於內容審核不足，印尼正在考慮封鎖該平台。

Meanwhile, the European Union has been reportedly investigating Telegram for allegedly providing false user data.

同時，據報道，歐盟正在調查 Telegram 涉嫌提供虛假用戶資料的情況。

Related: Toncoin hits $13.96B market cap amid Durov debacleNegative sentiment around these legal challenges could continue to weigh on Toncoin’s price, as investors may anticipate further market instability or distancing from the project.

相關：在 Durov 崩盤中，Toncoin 市值達到 13.96B 美元圍繞這些法律挑戰的負面情緒可能會繼續打壓 Toncoin 的價格，因為投資者可能預計市場會進一步不穩定或遠離該項目。

However, Toncoin whales seem unfazed by the negative coverage. According to Santiment data, the holdings of Toncoin’s richest investors—those with a 10 million–100 million token balance (brown)—went up following Durov’s arrest.

然而，東幣鯨魚似乎並未受到負面報導的影響。根據 Santiment 的數據，杜羅夫被捕後，Toncoin 最富有的投資者（擁有 1,000 萬至 1 億代幣餘額（棕色））的持股增加。

Toncoin supply distribution among whales. Santimentチャートより

來自 Santiment 圖表的 Toncoin 供應分佈。

Moreover, the total-value-locked across the Toncoin ecosystem increased during September’s price decline, thanks to the launch of gaming and memecoin projects—like DOGS—on its network.

此外，由於遊戲和 memecoin 項目（如 DOGS）在其網路上的推出，整個 Toncoin 生態系統的總鎖定價值在 9 月價格下跌期間有所增加。

Ton Blockchain TVL. Defi LlamaチャートよりSo, the underlying Toncoin ecosystem attracted users and developers despite the headwinds.

Ton 區塊鏈 TVL。