随着 Telegram 打击力度加大，9 月份 TON 价格面临下跌 30% 的风险

尽管有所复苏，但技术指标表明 Toncoin 可能面临继续其普遍下跌趋势的风险。

Toncoin (TON), the native cryptocurrency of Telegram-blockchain platform TON, has seen a bumpy ride in recent weeks. After taking a hit following Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest on Aug. 25, TON recovered swiftly with a 15% gain to above $5.15 by Sept. 9.

Toncoin (TON) 是 Telegram 区块链平台 TON 的原生加密货币，最近几周经历了一段坎坷的旅程。 Telegram 创始人 Pavel Durov 于 8 月 25 日被捕后遭受重创，TON 迅速恢复元气，到 9 月 9 日涨幅达 15%，至 5.15 美元以上。

However, a technical indicator now suggests that Toncoin may be at risk of continuing its prevailing downtrend.

然而，现在的技术指标表明，Toncoin 可能面临继续其普遍下跌趋势的风险。

Toncoin price risks 30% decline in September

9 月份 Toncoin 价格面临下跌 30% 的风险

Toncoin’s recent price recovery is part of a broader inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which is characterized by the formation of a rounding top followed by a period of consolidation.

Toncoin 最近的价格回升是更广泛的反向杯柄形态的一部分，其特点是形成圆顶，随后是一段盘整期。

A bearish continuation pattern, an inverse cup and handle typically resolves when the price breaks below the common neckline support and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the cup’s peak and neckline.

当价格跌破共同颈线支撑位并下跌至杯形峰值与颈线之间的最大距离时，看跌延续形态（即反向杯柄）通常会消失。

On Sept. 3, the TON/USDT pair entered the pattern’s breakdown stage after slipping below its neckline support of around $5. A week later, its price was testing the same neckline as resistance.

9 月 3 日，TON/USDT 货币对跌破 5 美元左右的颈线支撑位后进入该模式的崩溃阶段。一周后，其价格测试了与阻力位相同的颈线。

After dropping to a low of $4.45 on Sept. 6, the TON/USDT pair recovered quickly, clocking in a 15% gain to cross the $5.15 mark on Sept. 9. A bearish technical formation suggests that the price may continue to slide. CryptoSlateチャートより

在 9 月 6 日跌至 4.45 美元的低点后，TON/USDT 货币对迅速反弹，9 月 9 日上涨 15%，突破 5.15 美元大关。看跌的技术形态表明价格可能会继续下滑。 CryptoSlate チャートより

Retaking the neckline as support would likely invalidate the inverse-cup-and-handle pattern.

重新将颈线作为支撑位可能会使反杯柄形态失效。

However, a failed attempt to move back above the neckline after a successful retest would confirm that the previous support has flipped into resistance, indicating that sellers are still in control and the breakdown is likely to continue.

然而，在成功重新测试后，如果试图回到颈线上方失败，将证实之前的支撑位已转变为阻力位，表明卖方仍在控制之中，并且跌破可能会继续。

In that case, Toncoin’s downside target would be around $3.60, down approximately 30% from the current price levels.

在这种情况下，Toncoin 的下行目标将在 3.60 美元左右，比当前价格水平下降约 30%。

Crackdowns against Telegram, Durov intensify

对 Telegram 和杜罗夫的打压力度加大

The bearish outlooks for Toncoin have intensified further due to its association with Telegram and Durov, primarily in the light of an ongoing global crackdown against the messaging app service.

由于 Toncoin 与 Telegram 和 Durov 的关联，Toncoin 的悲观前景进一步加剧，主要是因为全球范围内持续打击该消息应用服务。

For instance, South Korea has joined the global crackdown on Telegram, investigating the platform for facilitating deepfake crimes.

例如，韩国加入了全球对 Telegram 的打击行动，调查该平台是否助长了深度造假犯罪。

India, Telegram’s largest market with over 100 million users, also initiated a probe shortly after Durov’s arrest reports surfaced. Indonesia is considering blocking the platform due to inadequate content moderation.

印度是 ​​Telegram 最大的市场，拥有超过 1 亿用户，在杜罗夫被捕的报道浮出水面后不久，印度也启动了调查。由于内容审核不足，印度尼西亚正在考虑封锁该平台。

Meanwhile, the European Union has been reportedly investigating Telegram for allegedly providing false user data.

与此同时，据报道，欧盟正在调查 Telegram 涉嫌提供虚假用户数据的情况。

Related: Toncoin hits $13.96B market cap amid Durov debacleNegative sentiment around these legal challenges could continue to weigh on Toncoin’s price, as investors may anticipate further market instability or distancing from the project.

相关：在 Durov 崩溃中，Toncoin 市值达到 13.96B 美元围绕这些法律挑战的负面情绪可能会继续打压 Toncoin 的价格，因为投资者可能预计市场会进一步不稳定或远离该项目。

However, Toncoin whales seem unfazed by the negative coverage. According to Santiment data, the holdings of Toncoin’s richest investors—those with a 10 million–100 million token balance (brown)—went up following Durov’s arrest.

然而，东币鲸鱼似乎并未受到负面报道的影响。根据 Santiment 的数据，杜罗夫被捕后，Toncoin 最富有的投资者（拥有 1000 万至 1 亿代币余额（棕色））的持有量有所增加。

Toncoin supply distribution among whales. Santimentチャートより

来自 Santiment 图表的 Toncoin 供应分布。

Moreover, the total-value-locked across the Toncoin ecosystem increased during September’s price decline, thanks to the launch of gaming and memecoin projects—like DOGS—on its network.

此外，由于在其网络上推出了游戏和 memecoin 项目（如 DOGS），整个 Toncoin 生态系统的总锁定价值在 9 月份价格下跌期间有所增加。

Ton Blockchain TVL. Defi LlamaチャートよりSo, the underlying Toncoin ecosystem attracted users and developers despite the headwinds.

Ton 区块链 TVL。从 Defi Llama 图表来看，尽管存在阻力，底层的 Toncoin 生态系统还是吸引了用户和开发者。