Tom Lee 仍然認為比特幣 (BTC) 今年可能達到 15 萬美元

Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合夥人兼研究主管認為，比特幣 (BTC) 將在今年表現強勁。

Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will still hit $150,000 in 2024. In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee stated that one reason to be bullish on Bitcoin is that defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox is now expected to finally repay creditors about 142,000 BTC—nearly $9 billion—in a distribution starting in July and concluding in October.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合夥人兼研究主管認為，比特幣(BTC) 到2024 年仍將達到15 萬美元。加密貨幣交易所Mt. Gox最終償還債權人約 142,000 BTC（近 90 億美元），分配從 7 月開始，到 10 月結束。

“Bitcoin is probably suffering from the Mt. Gox starting distributions in July. That was a huge overhang for many years. But if I was investing in crypto knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July, I think it’s a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second half. So I think $150,000 is still [possible this year] … And you know one thing to keep in mind is that Bitcoin makes most of its gains with ten days every year. If you take out the ten best days in a single year, Bitcoin actually has a negative return.”

「比特幣可能會受到 Mt. Gox 於 7 月開始分發的影響。這是多年來的一個巨大懸而未決的問題。但如果我在投資加密貨幣時知道最大的懸而未決的問題之一將在 7 月消失，那麼我認為這就是實際上預計下半年會出現相當大幅反彈的一個原因。所以我認為今年 15 萬美元仍然是可能的……而且你知道要記住的一件事是，比特幣每年的大部分漲幅都是在十天內實現的。如果剔除一年中最好的十天，比特幣實際上是負回報的。

Bitcoin is currently trading for $63,124 at the time of writing, up nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. Lee is also predicting that stocks will end the year higher than they currently are.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣目前的交易價格為 63,124 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了近 3%。李也預測，年底股市將高於目前水準。

“Now that we’re at the mid-year, 2025 [S&P 500] earnings look a lot stronger than we thought at the start of the year. We thought maybe $260. It’s probably closer to $275, maybe $280, or even $285. And I think the multiple we thought originally could be 20 times that number for next year, but given the Fed has more reasons to be dovish, and I think maybe the employment picture is softening, P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Multiples actually could be higher next year.

「現在我們正處於年中，2025 年 [標準普爾 500 指數] 的利潤看起來比我們年初想像的要強得多。我們認為可能是 260 美元。它可能接近 275 美元，也許是 280 美元，甚至 285 美元。我認為我們最初認為明年的本益比可能是這個數字的 20 倍，但考慮到聯準會有更多理由採取鴿派態度，而且我認為就業情況可能正在疲軟，本益比（本益比）倍數明年實際上可能會更高。

So I’d say between now and year-end stocks should be higher. We’ve had a strong first half already, and the second half won’t be as strong as the first half, but we should build upon those gains. So, yeah, it looks pretty good.”

所以我想說從現在到年底股票應該會更高。我們上半場已經表現出色，下半場不會像上半場那麼強勁，但我們應該在這些成果的基礎上再接再厲。所以，是的，看起來相當不錯。