Tom Lee 仍然认为比特币 (BTC) 今年可能达到 15 万美元

Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合伙人兼研究主管认为，比特币 (BTC) 将在今年表现强劲。

Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will still hit $150,000 in 2024. In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee stated that one reason to be bullish on Bitcoin is that defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox is now expected to finally repay creditors about 142,000 BTC—nearly $9 billion—in a distribution starting in July and concluding in October.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合伙人兼研究主管认为，比特币 (BTC) 到 2024 年仍将达到 15 万美元。 Tom Lee 在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，看好比特币的一个原因是，目前预计已经不复存在的加密货币交易所 Mt. Gox最终偿还债权人约 142,000 BTC（近 90 亿美元），分配从 7 月开始，到 10 月结束。

“Bitcoin is probably suffering from the Mt. Gox starting distributions in July. That was a huge overhang for many years. But if I was investing in crypto knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July, I think it’s a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second half. So I think $150,000 is still [possible this year] … And you know one thing to keep in mind is that Bitcoin makes most of its gains with ten days every year. If you take out the ten best days in a single year, Bitcoin actually has a negative return.”

“比特币可能会受到 Mt. Gox 于 7 月开始分发的影响。这是多年来的一个巨大悬而未决的问题。但如果我在投资加密货币时知道最大的悬而未决的问题之一将在 7 月份消失，那么我认为这就是实际上预计下半年会出现相当大幅反弹的一个原因。所以我认为 15 万美元今年仍然是可能的……而且你知道要记住的一件事是，比特币每年的大部分涨幅都是在十天内实现的。如果剔除一年中最好的十天，比特币实际上是负回报的。”

Bitcoin is currently trading for $63,124 at the time of writing, up nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. Lee is also predicting that stocks will end the year higher than they currently are.

截至撰写本文时，比特币目前的交易价格为 63,124 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了近 3%。李还预测，年底股市将高于目前水平。

“Now that we’re at the mid-year, 2025 [S&P 500] earnings look a lot stronger than we thought at the start of the year. We thought maybe $260. It’s probably closer to $275, maybe $280, or even $285. And I think the multiple we thought originally could be 20 times that number for next year, but given the Fed has more reasons to be dovish, and I think maybe the employment picture is softening, P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Multiples actually could be higher next year.

“现在我们正处于年中，2025 年 [标准普尔 500 指数] 的盈利看起来比我们年初想象的要强得多。我们认为可能是 260 美元。它可能接近 275 美元，也许是 280 美元，甚至 285 美元。我认为我们最初认为明年的市盈率可能是这个数字的 20 倍，但考虑到美联储有更多理由采取鸽派态度，而且我认为就业形势可能正在疲软，市盈率（市盈率）倍数明年实际上可能会更高。

So I’d say between now and year-end stocks should be higher. We’ve had a strong first half already, and the second half won’t be as strong as the first half, but we should build upon those gains. So, yeah, it looks pretty good.”

所以我想说从现在到年底股票应该会更高。我们上半场已经表现出色，下半场不会像上半场那么强劲，但我们应该在这些成果的基础上再接再厉。所以，是的，看起来相当不错。”