代幣解鎖的緊張情緒和山寨幣反彈夢想：駕馭市場持有

代幣解鎖了織機，可能會影響山寨幣。但是，分析師預計，如果比特幣的主導地位動搖，比特幣可能會出現反彈。市場會守住嗎？

The crypto market's caught in a tug-of-war. Token unlocks are on the horizon, potentially flooding the market and putting downward pressure on altcoin prices. At the same time, some analysts are spotting patterns that hint at a possible altcoin rally. It's a market hold situation, and understanding the dynamics at play is key to navigating these choppy waters.

加密貨幣市場陷入了一場拉鋸戰。代幣解鎖即將到來，可能會湧入市場，並對山寨幣價格造成下行壓力。與此同時，一些分析師發現了暗示山寨幣可能上漲的模式。這是一個市場持有的情況，了解其中的動態是駕馭這些波濤洶湧的水域的關鍵。

Token Unlock Tsunami: Will Altcoins Sink or Swim?

代幣解鎖海嘯：山寨幣會沉還是浮？

Between November 3rd and 10th, over $312 million in token unlocks are scheduled to hit the market. These unlocks release new supply from various altcoins, including Ethena (ENA), Memecoin (MEME), and Movement (MOVE). Historically, such large-scale unlocks tend to flood the market, creating downward pressure on token prices. This is further compounded by the fact that the Altcoin Season index has dropped to a multi-month low, indicating fragile investor sentiment.

11 月 3 日至 10 日期間，預計將有超過 3.12 億美元的代幣解鎖進入市場。這些解鎖釋放了各種山寨幣的新供應，包括 Ethena (ENA)、Memecoin (MEME) 和 Movement (MOVE)。從歷史上看，這種大規模的解鎖往往會湧入市場，從而對代幣價格造成下行壓力。山寨幣季節指數已跌至數月低點，表明投資者情緒脆弱，這一事實進一步加劇了這一情況。

Think of it like this: imagine your local bakery suddenly announcing they're releasing a whole bunch of day-old bread at half price. Sure, some people might be happy to snag a bargain, but overall, it's going to devalue the price of the fresh stuff, right? That's the kind of pressure these token unlocks can create.

可以這樣想：想像一下您當地的麵包店突然宣布他們將以半價出售一大堆隔天的麵包。當然，有些人可能會很高興買到便宜貨，但總的來說，這會讓新鮮東西的價格貶值，對嗎？這就是這些代幣解鎖可能產生的壓力。

Bitcoin's Dominance: The Key to an Altcoin Rally?

比特幣的主導地位：山寨幣反彈的關鍵？

Despite the gloom surrounding token unlocks, some analysts see a glimmer of hope. Market analyst Cas Abbe pointed out that Bitcoin’s dominance chart is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern mirrors the trajectory seen in late 2020, just before altcoins began to outperform Bitcoin. Abbe suggests keeping an eye on the 58% dominance level; a breakdown below that could trigger another altcoin rally.

儘管圍繞代幣解鎖的前景一片黯淡，一些分析師還是看到了一線希望。市場分析師Cas Abbe指出，比特幣的主導圖表正在形成頭肩形態。這種模式反映了 2020 年底的軌跡，就在山寨幣開始跑贏比特幣之前。 Abbe 建議關注 58% 的主導水平；跌破該水平可能會引發另一次山寨幣反彈。

Currently, Bitcoin dominance sits at 60%, up more than 2% in the past month. The idea is that if Bitcoin loses its grip on the market, capital will flow into altcoins, fueling a rally.

目前，比特幣的主導地位為 60%，比過去一個月增長了 2% 以上。這個想法是，如果比特幣失去對市場的控制，資本將流入山寨幣，從而推動反彈。

The Whale Factor and Institutional Accumulation

鯨魚因素和製度積累

Adding another layer of complexity, Bitcoin whales have been actively accumulating Bitcoin, even amidst market volatility. Data reveals a two-month high in whale activity, with over 6,311 transactions worth over $1 million each. This suggests that larger players are confident in Bitcoin's long-term prospects and are using market dips as opportunities to stock up.

即使在市場波動的情況下，比特幣鯨魚也一直在積極積累比特幣，這又增加了一層複雜性。數據顯示，鯨魚活動達到兩個月來的最高水平，超過 6,311 筆交易，每筆價值超過 100 萬美元。這表明較大的參與者對比特幣的長期前景充滿信心，並利用市場下跌作為囤貨機會。

Furthermore, the sheer number of crypto ETF applications—over 155 tracking 35 different digital assets—suggests a coming wave of institutional interest and infrastructure development. This buildout could coincide with a delayed altcoin bull run.

此外，加密 ETF 應用的數量之多（超過 155 個跟踪 35 種不同的數字資產）表明機構興趣和基礎設施開發浪潮即將到來。這種擴張可能與延遲的山寨幣牛市同時發生。

My Take: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

我的看法：謹慎樂觀的前景

While the token unlocks pose a legitimate threat, I believe the potential for an altcoin rally is real, especially if Bitcoin dominance falters. The key is to stay informed and manage risk. Diversification, liquidity management, and keeping an eye on unlock calendars are crucial strategies. The accumulation by whales also hints that big money is positioning itself for a future upswing.

雖然代幣解鎖構成了合理的威脅，但我相信山寨幣上漲的潛力是真實存在的，特別是如果比特幣的主導地位動搖的話。關鍵是及時了解情況並管理風險。多元化、流動性管理和關註解鎖日曆是關鍵策略。鯨魚的積累也暗示著大筆資金正在為未來的上漲做好準備。

However, don't get carried away. The market could enter a

不過，不要得意忘形。市場可能會進入