穆迪（Moody）在一個多世紀以來首次降低了美國政府的信用等級

穆迪（Moody）在一個多世紀以來首次降低了美國政府的信用等級。該機構將其AAA評級降低到AA1，這是該國的結果

For the first time in more than a century, Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating. The agency reduced its Aaa rating to Aa1, and this was a result of the country’s piling debt and the political deadlock. US Treasury yields increased, and equity and cryptocurrency prices fell right after the news got out. The change in the market situation makes it difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin as the market continues to take into consideration issues of risk and safety.

穆迪（Moody）在一個多世紀以來首次降低了美國政府的信用等級。該機構將其AAA評級降低到AA1，這是該國堆積債務和政治僵局的結果。美國財政部收益率提高，新聞發布後，股票和加密貨幣價格下跌。市場情況的變化使得由於市場繼續考慮風險和安全問題，因此很難預測比特幣的未來。

The first reaction from the market was to Treasury yields to the steep rate hikes. The 10-year US government bond yield, initially triggered by the rating downgrade, surged by nearly 10 basis points (bp) and came to 4.54%, while the 30-year US yield vaulted to 5.01%.

市場的第一個反應是財政部收益到陡峭的速度。最初由評級降級引發的10年美國政府債券收益率提高了近10個基點（BP），達到4.54％，而美國30年的美國收益率降至5.01％。

These increased yields indeed pull the curve to a steeper configuration and also negatively affect risk assets, such as Bitcoin. However, the cut in the credit rating also weakened the status of the US dollar as a safe haven, and so it was instrumental in pressuring the greenback to move lower, reducing the rates.

這些提高的產量確實將曲線拉到更陡峭的配置，並且也會對風險資產（例如比特幣）產生負面影響。但是，信用等級的降低也削弱了美元作為避風港的狀態，因此它有助於迫使綠背施加較低的速度，從而降低了費率。

Furthermore, the risk‑off sentiment was widespread and quickly spread through all markets. As stocks were selling off, not only the equities market but also the Bitcoin market plummeted. Bitcoin was hit with over a 4.5% decline on the day of the credit rating cut, further displaying its short‑term rapport with the bear‑run stocks. This immediately caused the speculators who thought Bitcoin was a risk asset to instantly be in a downside zone.

此外，風險投入的情緒是廣泛的，並迅速在所有市場中傳播。隨著股票的銷售，不僅股票市場，而且比特幣市場下跌。比特幣在降低信用評級的當天下降了4.5％，進一步顯示了其與熊市股票的短期融洽關係。這立即導致投機者認為比特幣是立即處於下行區域的風險資產。

It was Maleny that also highlighted the historical occasion of the downgrade of Moody’s to the United States credit. It is the first time that the rating agency has cut the US government’s credit rating after almost 100 years. The decision is because of the increasing US public debt, which is now at 36 trillion dollars, and ongoing worries about governance. This description of the situation intensifies the risk narrative, which could, in turn, drive much deeper Bitcoin price falls if it also happens in the stock market.

馬雷尼還強調了穆迪降級為美國的歷史場合。這是該評級機構在將近100年後首次降低美國政府的信用評級。決定是因為美國的公共債務增加，現在是36萬億美元，並且對治理的持續擔憂。對情況的描述加劇了風險敘事，如果股票市場上也發生了更深的比特幣價格，這種敘述可能會推動更深的比特幣價格下降。

In the coming days, the most impactful events will continue to be changes in US fiscal policy and central bank decisions. If the government sends a signal about its intention to resort to drastic monetary measures to support the economy after the recession, Bitcoin might gain an upper hand through lower real yields.

在接下來的幾天裡，最有影響力的事件將繼續是美國財政政策和中央銀行決策的變化。如果政府發出有關訴諸於經濟衰退後邁出巨大貨幣措施以支持經濟的信號，則比特幣可能會通過較低的實際收益率佔上風。

Conversely, the market will have to wait and see the development of these indicators as they monitor the crypto market, and signals from the government, for any indication of fiscal tightening or persistent yield pressure, which might be a case of longer weakness in the cryptocurrency, or not.

相反，市場將在監測加密貨幣市場和政府信號時必須等待並查看這些指標的發展，以表明財政收緊或持續的屈服壓力的任何跡象，這可能是加密貨幣較長的弱點。

The Moody’s downgrade has definitely made things difficult for Bitcoin. In the near future, there is a possibility that a rise in bond yields and general risk aversion will be obstacles to deal with for prices.

喜怒無常的降級絕對使比特幣困難。在不久的將來，債券收益率的上升和普遍的風險規避可能是價格應對價格的障礙。

The long run scenario could include the US dollar’s downfall and the country’s credit worries, which would lead to a positive outlook on Bitcoin. Investors’ attention will be captured by yield movements, dollar fluctuations, and the stance of the authorities, as these are the factors to consider in marking Bitcoin’s likely trajectory.

長期的情況可能包括美元的倒台和該國的信用擔憂，這將導致對比特幣的積極前景。投資者的注意力將被收益率變動，美元波動和當局的立場所吸引，因為這些是標記比特幣可能的軌跡時要考慮的因素。