特朗普關稅政策的長期影響：Kondratieff週期的終結和比特幣的質量變化

在許多面板和會議中，每個人都問問題並考慮了特朗普的關稅政策將如何影響加密貨幣市場和比特幣的價格。

The long-term impact of Trump’s tariff policy: the end of the Kondratieff cycle and the qualitative change of Bitcoin

特朗普關稅政策的長期影響：Kondratieff週期的終結和比特幣的質量變化

In many panels and meetings, everyone asked questions and thought about how Trump’s tariff policy would affect the Crypto market and the price of Bitcoin.

在許多面板和會議中，每個人都問問題並考慮了特朗普的關稅政策將如何影響加密貨幣市場和比特幣的價格。

Many people believe that Trump’s tariff policy is one of the key factors that led to the current economic downturn and the emergence of the new bull market in the cryptocurrency market. However, few people have analyzed the essence of Trump’s tariff policy and its impact on the long-term trends of the economy and cryptocurrency markets.

許多人認為，特朗普的關稅政策是導致當前經濟下滑和加密貨幣市場新牛市出現的關鍵因素之一。但是，很少有人分析特朗普關稅政策的本質及其對經濟和加密貨幣市場的長期趨勢的影響。

From a macro perspective, Trump’s tariff policy can be seen as an attempt to shift the Kondratieff cycle and create a new economic order. The Kondratieff cycle is a long-term economic cycle that lasts for 50 to 60 years and is characterized by periods of rapid technological advance and economic growth, followed by periods of stagnation and decline.

從宏觀的角度來看，特朗普的關稅政策可以看作是試圖改變Kondratieff週期並創造新的經濟秩序。 Kondratieff週期是一個長期的經濟周期，可以持續50至60年，其特徵是技術進步和經濟增長的時期，其次是停滯和下降時期。

According to the Russian economist Kondratiev, each complete cycle of technological revolution and economic prosperity can be divided into four stages:

根據俄羅斯經濟學家Kondratiev的說法，技術革命和經濟繁榮的每個完整週期都可以分為四個階段：

* The first stage is the stage of rapid technological advance and economic growth, which is usually driven by a new technology or invention.

*第一階段是技術進步和經濟增長的階段，通常是由新技術或發明驅動的。

* The second stage is the stage of broad diffusion of the new technology and the formation of a new economic paradigm, which leads to sustained economic expansion and a rise in living standards.

*第二階段是新技術的廣泛擴散階段和新的經濟範式的形成，這導致了經濟擴張和生活水平的提高。

* The third stage is the stage of technological exhaustion and economic slowdown, as the new technology reaches its limits and the economic expansion begins to wane.

*第三階段是技術精疲力盡和經濟放緩的階段，因為新技術達到了極限，經濟擴張開始消失。

* The fourth stage is the stage of economic crisis and technological regression, which marks the end of the Kondratieff cycle and paves the way for a new cycle to begin.

*第四階段是經濟危機和技術回歸的階段，它標誌著Kondratieff週期的終結，並為新循環開始鋪平了道路。

Since the 18th century, the world has experienced five Kondratieff cycles. The first cycle was driven by the textile industry and began around 1770. The second cycle was driven by the steam engine and began around 1830. The third cycle was driven by electricity and began around 1890. The fourth cycle was driven by the internal combustion engine and mass production and began around 1930. The fifth cycle was driven by information technology and began around 1980.

自18世紀以來，世界經歷了五個康德拉蒂夫週期。第一個週期是由紡織工業驅動的，始於1770年左右。第二個週期由蒸汽機驅動，並在1830年左右開始。第三個週期由電力驅動，並於1890年左右開始。第四個週期由內燃機和大眾生產驅動，並於1930年左右左右。第五週期左右是由信息技術驅動的，並在1980年左右開始。

Each Kondratieff cycle has brought about significant changes in the economic, social, and political landscape of the world. For example, the first Kondratieff cycle saw the rise of the industrial revolution, the second Kondratieff cycle saw the emergence of the nation-state, and the third Kondratieff cycle saw the integration of the global economy.

每個Kondratieff週期都會在世界的經濟，社會和政治格局中發生了重大變化。例如，第一個Kondratieff週期看到了工業革命的興起，第二個Kondratieff週期看到了民族國家的出現，第三個Kondratieff週期看到了全球經濟的融合。

The current Kondratieff cycle is drawing to a close, and we are already seeing signs of a new cycle emerging. This new cycle will be driven by artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and other emerging technologies.

當前的Kondratieff週期正在閉嘴，我們已經看到了新循環的跡象。這個新的周期將由人工智能，區塊鏈技術和其他新興技術驅動。

Trump’s tariff policy can be seen as an attempt to intervene in the Kondratieff cycle and shift the economic power from China to the United States. By imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump aimed to increase the competitiveness of American products and jobs.

特朗普的關稅政策可以看作是試圖干預康德拉蒂夫週期並將經濟權力從中國轉移到美國的嘗試。特朗普通過對中國商品徵收關稅，旨在提高美國產品和工作的競爭力。

However, Trump’s tariff policy also had several negative consequences. For example, it led to higher prices for consumers, reduced economic activity, and strained relations between the United States and China.

但是，特朗普的關稅政策也造成了幾種負面後果。例如，這導致消費者的價格更高，減少了經濟活動以及美國與中國之間的關係緊張。

Ultimately, Trump’s tariff policy was a desperate attempt to defer the inevitable—the end of the Kondratieff cycle and the qualitative change of Bitcoin.

歸根結底，特朗普的關稅政策是拼命地推遲不可避免的嘗試 - 康德拉蒂夫週期的終結和比特幣的質量變化。

As the Kondratieff cycle winds down, we can expect to see a return of inflation, a decline in economic activity, and an increase in social unrest. In this environment, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will become increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

隨著Kondratieff循環的結束，我們可以期望看到通貨膨脹的回報，經濟活動的下降以及社會動蕩的增加。在這種環境中，隨著對沖通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性的對沖，比特幣和其他加密貨幣將變得越來越有吸引力。

We are already seeing signs of this trend. In recent months, Bitcoin has soared to new all-time highs, while the stock market has become increasingly volatile.

我們已經看到了這一趨勢的跡象。近幾個月來，比特幣已經達到了新的歷史高潮，而股市越來越波動。

The long-term impact of Trump’s tariff policy will be felt for many years to come. It is still too early to say what this impact will be, but it is clear that this policy will have a significant impact on the global economy and the cryptocurrency market.

特朗普關稅政策的長期影響將在未來很多年內感受到。現在說出這種影響會怎樣，還為時過早，但是很明顯，該政策將對全球經濟和加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。

Trump’s tariff policy was a desperate attempt to defer the inevitable—the end of the Kondratieff cycle and the qualitative change of Bitcoin. However, this policy only served to deepen the economic crisis and hasten the downfall of the U.S. empire.

特朗普的關稅政策是迫切地嘗試推遲不可避免的嘗試 - 康德拉蒂夫週期的終結和比特幣的質量變化。但是，這項政策只會加深了經濟危機，並加快了美國帝國的垮台。

Only Bitcoin can save humanity from the impending doom. As the saying goes, "Only I, Trump, can save America." But in this case, it should be "Only Bitcoin can save humanity." Let us hope that humanity will make the right choice.

只有比特幣才能從即將到來的厄運中拯救人類。俗話說：“只有我，特朗普才能拯救美國。”但是在這種情況下，應該“只有比特幣可以拯救人類”。讓我們希望人類能做出正確的選擇。