聯準會預測 2024 年僅降息一次後，10x 研究稱堅持比特幣，避免以太幣

由於美國通膨低於預期，ETF 資金流入周三恢復。

Unit Trust ETF inflows resumed on Wednesday as U.S. inflation came in lower-than-expected, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year.

由於美國通膨低於預期，單位信託 ETF 資金週三流入恢復，增加了聯準會今年稍晚開始降息的理由。

10x Research continues to advocate for bitcoin even as the leading cryptocurrency trades under pressure following the Fed’s hawkish projections.

儘管在聯準會的鷹派預測之後，領先的加密貨幣交易面臨壓力，但 10x Research 仍繼續倡導比特幣。

The U.S. central bank left the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 5.25%- 5.5% on Wednesday, as expected. But it predicted just one rate reduction this year, down from three in March.

週三，聯準會將基準借貸成本維持在 5.25%-5.5% 的範圍內，一如預期。但它預計今年只會降息一次，低於三月的三次。

The Fed’s new rate prediction spooked markets, sending bitcoin lower given the softer-than-expected CPI release earlier in the day.

聯準會的新利率預測令市場感到恐慌，鑑於當天稍早公佈的消費者物價指數（CPI）低於預期，導致比特幣走低。

The leading cryptocurrency by market value pulled back to $67,400 on Thursday morning from post-CPI highs above $70,000, CoinDesk data show.

CoinDesk 數據顯示，週四上午，按市值計算的領先加密貨幣從 CPI 後高點 70,000 美元以上回落至 67,400 美元。

However, 10x Research maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin, expressing confidence that the rally will soon resume.

不過，10x Research 對比特幣保持樂觀前景，並表示有信心反彈將很快恢復。

“Our recommendation remains unchanged: to stick with the winners (Bitcoin) and avoid others (such as Ethereum). Our previous analysis has shown that a lower CPI number tends to lift Bitcoin prices, and we anticipate this trend will continue,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients on Thursday.

「我們的建議保持不變：堅持贏家（比特幣）並避免其他（例如以太坊）。我們先前的分析表明，較低的 CPI 數字往往會推高比特幣價格，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去，」10x Research 創始人 Markus Thielen 在周四給客戶的報告中表示。

The U.S. consumer price inflation rate was flat in May, missing the consensus estimate for a 0.1% rise and down from 0.3% in April. The year-on-year rate was 3.3%, matching estimates and down from April’s 3.4%.

美國 5 月消費者物價通膨率持平，低於市場普遍預期的 0.1% 漲幅，低於 4 月的 0.3%。同比率為 3.3%，與預期相符，低於 4 月的 3.4%。

The slowdown in inflation attracted massive inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Thielen noted.

蒂倫指出，通膨放緩吸引了大量資金流入美國上市的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金。

Provisional data from Farside Investors show the ETFs attracted $100 million on Wednesday, snapping a two-day outflows streak.

Farside Investors 的臨時數據顯示，這些 ETF 週三吸引了 1 億美元資金，結束了連續兩天的資金流出。

As reported earlier, the ETF flows dried after the debut on Jan. 11 as December CPI came in higher, weakening the case for Fed rate cuts. The flows resumed in February, pushing bitcoin higher.

正如之前報導的那樣，隨著 12 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 走高，ETF 資金在 1 月 11 日首次亮相後就枯竭了，削弱了美聯儲降息的理由。資金流在二月恢復，推動比特幣走高。

“ETF flows turned positive at the end of January but only started to accelerate slightly ahead of the CPI data release on February 13. But when inflation again increased to 3.2% on March 12, Bitcoin ETF inflows stopped as the market priced out the narrative of 2-3 rate cuts,” Thielen noted late May.

「ETF 資金流在1 月底轉為正數，但在2 月13 日消費者物價指數(CPI) 數據發布之前才開始略有加速。但當3 月12 日通膨率再次升至3.2% 時，比特幣ETF 資金流入停止，因為市場消化了2-3 次降息，」蒂倫 5 月底指出。

Thielen expects the Fed to signal more rate cuts later this year as inflation has already peaked.

蒂倫預計，由於通膨已經見頂，聯準會將在今年稍晚發出進一步降息的信號。

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市場團隊的共同總編輯。