美联储预测 2024 年仅降息一次后，10x 研究称坚持比特币，避免以太币

由于美国通胀低于预期，ETF 资金流入周三恢复。

Unit Trust ETF inflows resumed on Wednesday as U.S. inflation came in lower-than-expected, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year.

由于美国通胀低于预期，周三单位信托 ETF 资金流入恢复，增加了美联储今年晚些时候开始降息的理由。

10x Research continues to advocate for bitcoin even as the leading cryptocurrency trades under pressure following the Fed’s hawkish projections.

尽管在美联储的鹰派预测之后，领先的加密货币交易面临压力，但 10x Research 仍继续倡导比特币。

The U.S. central bank left the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 5.25%- 5.5% on Wednesday, as expected. But it predicted just one rate reduction this year, down from three in March.

周三，美联储将基准借贷成本维持在 5.25%-5.5% 的范围内，一如预期。但它预计今年只会降息一次，低于三月份的三次。

The Fed’s new rate prediction spooked markets, sending bitcoin lower given the softer-than-expected CPI release earlier in the day.

美联储的新利率预测令市场感到恐慌，鉴于当天早些时候公布的消费者物价指数（CPI）低于预期，导致比特币走低。

The leading cryptocurrency by market value pulled back to $67,400 on Thursday morning from post-CPI highs above $70,000, CoinDesk data show.

CoinDesk 数据显示，按市值计算的领先加密货币周四上午从 CPI 后高点 70,000 美元以上回落至 67,400 美元。

However, 10x Research maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin, expressing confidence that the rally will soon resume.

不过，10x Research 对比特币保持乐观前景，并表示有信心反弹将很快恢复。

“Our recommendation remains unchanged: to stick with the winners (Bitcoin) and avoid others (such as Ethereum). Our previous analysis has shown that a lower CPI number tends to lift Bitcoin prices, and we anticipate this trend will continue,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients on Thursday.

“我们的建议保持不变：坚持赢家（比特币）并避免其他（例如以太坊）。我们之前的分析表明，较低的 CPI 数字往往会推高比特币价格，我们预计这种趋势将持续下去，”10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 在周四给客户的一份报告中表示。

The U.S. consumer price inflation rate was flat in May, missing the consensus estimate for a 0.1% rise and down from 0.3% in April. The year-on-year rate was 3.3%, matching estimates and down from April’s 3.4%.

美国 5 月份消费者价格通胀率持平，低于市场普遍预期的 0.1% 涨幅，低于 4 月份的 0.3%。同比率为 3.3%，与预期相符，低于 4 月份的 3.4%。

The slowdown in inflation attracted massive inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, Thielen noted.

蒂伦指出，通胀放缓吸引了大量资金流入美国上市的现货比特币交易所交易基金。

Provisional data from Farside Investors show the ETFs attracted $100 million on Wednesday, snapping a two-day outflows streak.

Farside Investors 的临时数据显示，这些 ETF 周三吸引了 1 亿美元资金，结束了连续两天的资金流出。

As reported earlier, the ETF flows dried after the debut on Jan. 11 as December CPI came in higher, weakening the case for Fed rate cuts. The flows resumed in February, pushing bitcoin higher.

正如之前报道的那样，随着 12 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 走高，ETF 资金在 1 月 11 日首次亮相后就枯竭了，削弱了美联储降息的理由。资金流在二月份恢复，推动比特币走高。

“ETF flows turned positive at the end of January but only started to accelerate slightly ahead of the CPI data release on February 13. But when inflation again increased to 3.2% on March 12, Bitcoin ETF inflows stopped as the market priced out the narrative of 2-3 rate cuts,” Thielen noted late May.

“ETF 资金流在 1 月底转为正数，但在 2 月 13 日消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据发布之前才开始略有加速。但当 3 月 12 日通胀率再次升至 3.2% 时，比特币 ETF 资金流入停止，因为市场消化了2-3 次降息，”蒂伦 5 月底指出。

Thielen expects the Fed to signal more rate cuts later this year as inflation has already peaked.

蒂伦预计，由于通胀已经见顶，美联储将在今年晚些时候发出进一步降息的信号。

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市场团队的联合总编辑。