標準特許預測比特幣將很快達到新的歷史高

該銀行認為，第二季度的120,000美元目標變得越來越現實。

Standard Chartered is sticking to its bullish Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction for Q2 despite the recent legal challenges faced by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

儘管美國證券交易委員會（SEC）最近面臨的法律挑戰，但標準包機仍堅持其對第2季度的看漲比特幣（BTC）的價格預測。

In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, discussed several key factors that could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the second quarter.

在與Beincrypto的對話中，標準Chartered的數字資產研究負責人Geoff Kendrick討論了幾個關鍵因素，這些因素可能會使比特幣在第二季度成為新的歷史最高高位。

His predictions come amid a pending lawsuit against the SEC by the Decoding Law founder Tom Lee. Lee claims the agency’s actions are hindering the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

他的預測是在解碼法創始人湯姆·李（Tom Lee）對SEC的未決訴訟中進行的。 Lee聲稱該機構的行動阻礙了比特幣ETF的批准。

Moreover, an appeals court ruled against the SEC in its bid to overturn a lower court ruling that ordered the agency to reconsider its 2021 decision to reject an ETF application.

此外，上訴法院對SEC裁定，以推翻下級法院裁決，該裁決命令該機構重新考慮其2021年拒絕ETF申請的決定。

Despite these developments, Kendrick said several indicators point to a bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the coming months.

儘管有這些發展，肯德里克說，有幾個指標指出了未來幾個月比特幣的看漲場景。

Capital Flows Are Returning Strongly to Bitcoin ETFs

資本流量強烈返回比特幣ETF

According to Glassnode data, ETF outflows had largely disappeared by mid-March as the cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn.

根據GlassNode數據，由於加密貨幣市場經歷了低迷，ETF流出已經在3月中旬消失了。

However, over the past two weeks, there has been a return of strong outflows, particularly from the U.S.

但是，在過去的兩個星期中，有強大的流出回報，尤其是來自美國

At the same time, Bitcoin experienced a rebound from lows of $84,000 to highs of $99,000.

同時，比特幣經歷了從84,000美元的低點到99,000美元的高高。

“Bitcoin’s price appreciation is now all about flows, and flows are coming in many forms, as the spot ETFs in the US have seen $5.3 billion of inflows over the past 3 weeks. On my price-adjusted calculation, this has seen the net real flow increase by $1.2 billion over this period, so $4 billion of the flows are “notional” and may relate to futures positions or other instruments used to hedge the ETFs' exposures, ” Kendrick said.

“Bitcoin's price appreciation is now all about flows, and flows are coming in many forms, as the spot ETFs in the US have seen $5.3 billion of inflows over the past 3 weeks. On my price-adjusted calculation, this has seen the net real flow increase by $1.2 billion over this period, so $4 billion of the flows are “notional” and may relate to futures positions or other instruments used to hedge the ETFs' exposures,肯德里克說。

According to his calculations, the total capital flows into the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of the year now stand at around $17 billion.

根據他的計算，自今年年初以來，總資本流入了美國比特幣ETF。

Strategy’s Investment in Bitcoin Continues

戰略對比特幣的投資仍在繼續

Another key factor that Kendrick highlighted is Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin.

肯德里克（Kendrick）強調的另一個關鍵因素是策略（以前是微觀）持續的比特幣積累。

Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that the company has been steadily accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency since late 2024.

比特幣的數據表明，自2024年底以來，該公司一直在穩步積累旗艦加密貨幣。

With the recent price recovery, Strategy’s total holdings have reached a record value of over $53.8 billion.

隨著最近的價格回收，戰略的總持股量已達到538億美元的創紀錄價值。

“They now hold 555,450 Bitcoins, which is 2.6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist. Their new plan to raise an additional $84 billion to buy more Bitcoin would add another 840,000 Bitcoins. At a $100,000 price, this would increase their holdings to more than 6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist and take their total to $84 billion of Bitcoin and related instruments, ” Kendrick explained.

“他們現在持有555,450比特幣，是所有將存在的比特幣的2.6％。他們的新計劃籌集了額外的840億美元購買更多比特幣以購買更多的比特幣。將增加840,000個比特幣。以100,000美元的價格，以100,000美元的價格將其持有的所有比特幣增加到所有的比特幣，將其總數中的6％以上的比特幣增加到總數，並將其總數為84美元的Billion and Inlstick and Inlact and Inlack and Inlact and and kend and and kend and kend and kend and and kend''and kend。

According to the Standard Chartered analyst, Strategy’s actions are driven by a belief that Bitcoin's price will continue to rise.

根據標準特許分析師的說法，戰略的行動是由比特幣價格將繼續上漲的信念所驅動的。

Kendrick said that the upcoming 13F filings from ETFs and Strategy will provide further insights into their investment activities during the last quarter of 2024.

肯德里克（Kendrick）說，即將到來的ETF和戰略提交的13F文件將在2024年最後一個季度提供進一步的見解。

Finally, he noted that major institutions are becoming increasingly involved in Bitcoin.

最後，他指出，主要機構越來越多地參與比特幣。

For instance, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund had a small 4,700 Bitcoin-equivalent position in IBIT at the end of December.

例如，在12月底，阿布扎比的主權財富基金在IBIT中具有4,700個比特幣同等地位。

Kendrick expects this holding to have increased, and he anticipates that other long-term buyers will join in too.

肯德里克（Kendrick）預計這種持有量會有所增加，他預計其他長期買家也會加入。

“I would expect that to have increased, and other long-term buyers to have joined in too. Notably, the Swiss National Bank recently began buying MicroStrategy, alongside the Norges Pension Fund. It is also worth noting that the Norges Pension Fund had a small holding in IBIT at the end of December, which may have been liquidated in March to fund the purchase of MicroStrategy shares,” he said.

“我希望這會有所增加，其他長期買家也加入了。尤其是，瑞士國家銀行最近開始與Norges養老基金一起購買MicroStrategy。還值得注意的是，Norges養老金基金在12月底在IBET有一個較小的持股，這可能是在3月份在三月進行的MicrososoStrategy股份資金，他說。”他說。

According to Kendrick, these trends suggest that major institutions are gradually integrating Bitcoin into their traditional portfolios.

根據肯德里克（Kendrick）的說法，這些趨勢表明，主要機構正在逐漸將比特幣整合到其傳統投資組合中。

At the same time, local governments in the U.S. are also taking steps to invest in Bitcoin. A recent BeInCrypto report highlighted that states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas, and Oregon are making significant progress on legislation to create strategic Bitcoin reserves.

同時，美國的地方政府也正在採取措施投資比特幣。最近的Beincrypto報告強調，亞利桑那州，新罕布什爾州，德克薩斯州和俄勒岡州等各州正在立法取得重大進展，以創建戰略性比特幣儲備。

“New Hampshire recently became the first US state to pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, and I expect other states to follow suit. This legislation would mandate that a portion of state funds be invested in Bitcoin to serve as a long-term store of value and hedge against inflation.

“新罕布什爾州最近成為第一個通過戰略性比特幣儲備法案的州，我希望其他州效仿。該立法將要求將一部分國家資金投資於比特幣，以作為長期價值存儲和抵抗通貨膨脹的對沖。

Given all these factors, I apologize if my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low,” he concluded.

鑑於所有這些因素，如果我的120,000美元的Q2目標可能太低，我深表歉意。 ”他總結說。