标准特许预测比特币将很快达到新的历史高

该银行认为，第二季度的120,000美元目标变得越来越现实。

Standard Chartered is sticking to its bullish Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction for Q2 despite the recent legal challenges faced by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

尽管美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最近面临的法律挑战，但标准包机仍坚持其对第2季度的看涨比特币（BTC）的价格预测。

In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, discussed several key factors that could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the second quarter.

在与Beincrypto的对话中，标准Chartered的数字资产研究负责人Geoff Kendrick讨论了几个关键因素，这些因素可能会使比特币在第二季度成为新的历史最高高位。

His predictions come amid a pending lawsuit against the SEC by the Decoding Law founder Tom Lee. Lee claims the agency’s actions are hindering the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

他的预测是在解码法创始人汤姆·李（Tom Lee）对SEC的未决诉讼中进行的。 Lee声称该机构的行动阻碍了比特币ETF的批准。

Moreover, an appeals court ruled against the SEC in its bid to overturn a lower court ruling that ordered the agency to reconsider its 2021 decision to reject an ETF application.

此外，上诉法院对SEC裁定，以推翻下级法院裁决，该裁决命令该机构重新考虑其2021年拒绝ETF申请的决定。

Despite these developments, Kendrick said several indicators point to a bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the coming months.

尽管有这些发展，肯德里克说，有几个指标指出了未来几个月比特币的看涨场景。

Capital Flows Are Returning Strongly to Bitcoin ETFs

资本流量强烈返回比特币ETF

According to Glassnode data, ETF outflows had largely disappeared by mid-March as the cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn.

根据GlassNode数据，由于加密货币市场经历了低迷，ETF流出已经在3月中旬消失了。

However, over the past two weeks, there has been a return of strong outflows, particularly from the U.S.

但是，在过去的两个星期中，有强大的流出回报，尤其是来自美国

At the same time, Bitcoin experienced a rebound from lows of $84,000 to highs of $99,000.

同时，比特币经历了从84,000美元的低点到99,000美元的高高。

“Bitcoin’s price appreciation is now all about flows, and flows are coming in many forms, as the spot ETFs in the US have seen $5.3 billion of inflows over the past 3 weeks. On my price-adjusted calculation, this has seen the net real flow increase by $1.2 billion over this period, so $4 billion of the flows are “notional” and may relate to futures positions or other instruments used to hedge the ETFs' exposures, ” Kendrick said.

“Bitcoin's price appreciation is now all about flows, and flows are coming in many forms, as the spot ETFs in the US have seen $5.3 billion of inflows over the past 3 weeks. On my price-adjusted calculation, this has seen the net real flow increase by $1.2 billion over this period, so $4 billion of the flows are “notional” and may relate to futures positions or other instruments used to hedge the ETFs' exposures,肯德里克说。

According to his calculations, the total capital flows into the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of the year now stand at around $17 billion.

根据他的计算，自今年年初以来，总资本流入了美国比特币ETF。

Strategy’s Investment in Bitcoin Continues

战略对比特币的投资仍在继续

Another key factor that Kendrick highlighted is Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin.

肯德里克（Kendrick）强调的另一个关键因素是策略（以前是微观）持续的比特币积累。

Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that the company has been steadily accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency since late 2024.

比特币的数据表明，自2024年底以来，该公司一直在稳步积累旗舰加密货币。

With the recent price recovery, Strategy’s total holdings have reached a record value of over $53.8 billion.

随着最近的价格回收，战略的总持股量已达到538亿美元的创纪录价值。

“They now hold 555,450 Bitcoins, which is 2.6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist. Their new plan to raise an additional $84 billion to buy more Bitcoin would add another 840,000 Bitcoins. At a $100,000 price, this would increase their holdings to more than 6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist and take their total to $84 billion of Bitcoin and related instruments, ” Kendrick explained.

“他们现在持有555,450比特币，是所有将存在的比特币的2.6％。他们的新计划筹集了额外的840亿美元购买更多比特币以购买更多的比特币。将增加840,000个比特币。以100,000美元的价格，以100,000美元的价格将其持有的所有比特币增加到所有的比特币，将其总数中的6％以上的比特币增加到总数，并将其总数为84美元的Billion and Inlstick and Inlact and Inlack and Inlact and and kend and and kend and kend and kend and and kend''and kend。

According to the Standard Chartered analyst, Strategy’s actions are driven by a belief that Bitcoin's price will continue to rise.

根据标准特许分析师的说法，战略的行动是由比特币价格将继续上涨的信念所驱动的。

Kendrick said that the upcoming 13F filings from ETFs and Strategy will provide further insights into their investment activities during the last quarter of 2024.

肯德里克（Kendrick）说，即将到来的ETF和战略提交的13F文件将在2024年最后一个季度提供进一步的见解。

Finally, he noted that major institutions are becoming increasingly involved in Bitcoin.

最后，他指出，主要机构越来越多地参与比特币。

For instance, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund had a small 4,700 Bitcoin-equivalent position in IBIT at the end of December.

例如，在12月底，阿布扎比的主权财富基金在IBIT中具有4,700个比特币同等地位。

Kendrick expects this holding to have increased, and he anticipates that other long-term buyers will join in too.

肯德里克（Kendrick）预计这种持有量会有所增加，他预计其他长期买家也会加入。

“I would expect that to have increased, and other long-term buyers to have joined in too. Notably, the Swiss National Bank recently began buying MicroStrategy, alongside the Norges Pension Fund. It is also worth noting that the Norges Pension Fund had a small holding in IBIT at the end of December, which may have been liquidated in March to fund the purchase of MicroStrategy shares,” he said.

“我希望这会有所增加，其他长期买家也加入了。尤其是，瑞士国家银行最近开始与Norges养老基金一起购买MicroStrategy。还值得注意的是，Norges养老金基金在12月底在IBET有一个较小的持股，这可能是在3月份在三月进行的MicrososoStrategy股份资金，他说。”他说。

According to Kendrick, these trends suggest that major institutions are gradually integrating Bitcoin into their traditional portfolios.

根据肯德里克（Kendrick）的说法，这些趋势表明，主要机构正在逐渐将比特币整合到其传统投资组合中。

At the same time, local governments in the U.S. are also taking steps to invest in Bitcoin. A recent BeInCrypto report highlighted that states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas, and Oregon are making significant progress on legislation to create strategic Bitcoin reserves.

同时，美国的地方政府也正在采取措施投资比特币。最近的Beincrypto报告强调，亚利桑那州，新罕布什尔州，德克萨斯州和俄勒冈州等各州正在立法取得重大进展，以创建战略性比特币储备。

“New Hampshire recently became the first US state to pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, and I expect other states to follow suit. This legislation would mandate that a portion of state funds be invested in Bitcoin to serve as a long-term store of value and hedge against inflation.

“新罕布什尔州最近成为第一个通过战略性比特币储备法案的州，我希望其他州效仿。该立法将要求将一部分国家资金投资于比特币，以作为长期价值存储和抵抗通货膨胀的对冲。

Given all these factors, I apologize if my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low,” he concluded.

鉴于所有这些因素，如果我的120,000美元的Q2目标可能太低，我深表歉意。”他总结说。