標準特許的雙幣價格預測到2029年，其比特幣價格預測至500,000美元，原因是政府暴露

英國跨國銀行認為，對比特幣代理，尤其是戰略（MSTR）股份的主權興趣越來越多，支持其長期看漲論文。

Standard Chartered is doubling down on its bold forecast that Bitcoin will reach a staggering price of $500,000 by 2029, and now, fresh data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on institutional investment provides support for the bank's thesis.

標準憲章的大膽預測，即到2029年，比特幣將達到500,000美元的驚人價格，現在，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）對機構投資的全新數據提供了對銀行論文的支持。

As reported by Ben Armstrong on his YouTube channel,্যাউরে 8, Standard Chartered's projection is closely tied to its assumption that Donald Trump will win a second presidential term in 2024. The bank's economists believe that a second Trump term could bring about significant changes in crypto policy, ultimately paving the way for Bitcoin to hit the $500,000 mark.

正如本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）在他的YouTube頻道上報導的那樣，標準Chartered的預測與假設唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）將在2024年贏得第二個總統任期的假設密切相關。該銀行的經濟學家認為，第二個特朗普的經濟學家認為，第二個特朗普的任期可能會帶來重大變化的加密政策，最終為比特幣打入500,000美元的方式。

Specifically, Standard Chartered anticipates Trump's administration to roll back regulatory constraints, like the controversial SAB 121 accounting rule, which hampers institutional investment in crypto.

具體而言，《標準特許》預計特朗普的政府將退縮監管限制，例如有爭議的SAB 121會計規則，這阻礙了對加密貨幣的機構投資。

Moreover, the bank predicts that the administration could promote the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to provide institutions with greater access to the asset. These initiatives, in combination with the integration of Bitcoin into the global financial system, could generate substantial demand for the cryptocurrency.

此外，該銀行預測，政府可以促進與美國戰略石油儲備類似的戰略比特幣儲備的創建，以使機構能夠獲得更多的資產。這些舉措結合了比特幣與全球金融體系的整合，可以對加密貨幣產生大量需求。

Indeed, recent 13F filings, which disclose the equity holdings of U.S. institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management, reveal a concerning trend of these institutions acquiring shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a move seen as a way to gain indirect Bitcoin exposure in jurisdictions where direct holdings may be limited by regulatory frameworks.

的確，最近的13F文件揭示了美國機構投資經理的股權持有，管理資產超過1億美元，這揭示了這些機構收購了MicroStrategy（MSTR）股票的趨勢，這一舉動被視為從監管機構受到直接持有的司法管轄區的間接比特幣侵害的方式，可以受到監管機構的限制。

In the first quarter of 2025, several sovereign and government entities, including Norway's Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, South Korea's pension bodies, and a few U.S. state retirement funds, collectively increased their MSTR exposure to positions in the tens of thousands of Bitcoin, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research.

據杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick），標準的數字全球件研究，在2025年第一季度，包括挪威政府退休金基金，包括挪威政府退休金基金，瑞士國家銀行，瑞士國家銀行，韓國養老金機構以及一些美國州退休基金，共同將其MSTR暴露在數以萬計的比特幣中，杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick），標準的數字全球套件。

These institutions appear to be adjusting their institutional portfolios toward what they deem the "optimal level" of Bitcoin exposure from previously underweight positions.

這些機構似乎正在將其機構投資組合調整為他們認為是從以前的體重不足職位上暴露比特幣的“最佳水平”。

While there was disappointing news on the direct ETF front, with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board liquidating its 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in iTrust Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:IBIT), the rise in MSTR investments painted a more encouraging picture.

雖然直接ETF陣線上有令人失望的消息，但威斯康星州投資委員會在Itrust比特幣ETF（NYSE：IBIT）中清算了其3,400 BTC當量的位置，MSTR Investments的上升幅度更令人鼓舞。

Kendrick posits that in some cases, entities are using MSTR as a proxy to circumvent regulatory limitations on direct Bitcoin holdings. For instance, the Mubadala Investment Company, a sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, also slightly increased its holdings in IBIT to a Bitcoin-equivalent of 5,000 BTC, further highlighting persistent institutional interest despite regulatory challenges.

肯德里克（Kendrick）認為，在某些情況下，實體正在使用MSTR作為代理來規避直接比特幣持有的監管限制。例如，阿布扎比的主權財富基金穆巴達拉投資公司（Mubadala Investment Company）也略微將其在IBIT的持股量增加到了比特幣等效的5,000 BTC，儘管有監管挑戰，但進一步強調了持續的機構利益。

This aligns with Standard Chartered's broader thesis that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 by 2028. The bank's economists are projecting a scenario where a second Trump term will bring about policies that significantly improve institutional access to Bitcoin and drive up demand for the asset.

這與標準憲章更廣泛的論文相吻合，即比特幣到2028年可能會漲到500,000美元。該銀行的經濟學家預測了一種情況，即第二個特朗普期限將帶來明顯改善對比特幣的機構訪問並提高對資產需求的政策。

In his analysis, Kendrick highlighted the expanding investor base and decreasing market volatility as tailwinds for Bitcoin adoption. He concluded, "The latest data from the SEC supports our core thesis that Bitcoin will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office."

肯德里克（Kendrick）在他的分析中強調了不斷擴大的投資者基礎，並隨著比特幣採用的逆風而減少了市場波動。他總結說：“ SEC的最新數據支持我們的核心論點，即比特幣將在特朗普離開辦公室之前達到500,000美元的水平。”

As Ben Armstrong noted in his video, Standard Chartered's projection is already commensurately optimistic, but other high-profile figures in the crypto space are even more bullish.

正如本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）在視頻中所指出的那樣，《標準憲章的投影》已經非常樂觀，但是加密貨幣空間中的其他備受矚目的人物更加看漲。

For instance, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028. In a recent blog post, Hayes warned of eroding confidence in U.S. Treasuries, arguing that geopolitical instability and capital controls under a Trump-led administration would drive capital into Bitcoin.

例如，Bitmex和Maelstrom的CIO的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes認為，到2028年，比特幣可能會達到100萬美元。在最近的博客文章中，海斯警告說，侵蝕了對美國國債的信心，認為在特朗普領導的政府統治下的地緣政治不穩定和資本控制權將驅動資本投資。

He envisions a scenario where the U.S. Federal Reserve is forced to resort to money printing to offset foreign investment outflows, ultimately weakening the dollar and enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a global hedge.

他設想了一種場景，美國美聯儲被迫訴諸於貨幣印刷以抵消外國投資流出，最終削弱了美元並增強了比特幣作為全球對沖的吸引力。

Similarly, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a key figure in Bitcoin's early development, has also expressed the $1 million target. Citing strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing regulatory clarity, and a rise in institutional adoption, Back questioned why Bitcoin remains below $100,000.

同樣，Blockstream首席執行官Adam Back也表達了100萬美元的目標。援引大量的流入為比特幣ETF，增加的監管清晰度以及機構採用的增加，質疑比特幣為何仍然低於100,000美元。

"There doesn't seem to be a clear logical reason for why we are only at $100,000," Back stated in a recent interview with Decrypt.

“為什麼我們只有100,000美元的原因似乎並不是一個明顯的邏輯原因，” Back在最近接受解密的採訪中說。

Meanwhile, the algorithmic Bitcoin price prediction from CoinCodex is currently forecasting a more toned-down but still optimistic scenario. According to this prediction, Bitcoin will hit a peak of roughly $308,000 in 2029 before experiencing a multi-month price correction. Afterward, the prediction suggests that Bitcoin will continue to rally, potentially surpassing the $1 million mark by 2038.

同時，Coincodex的算法比特幣價格預測目前正在預測一種更加調整但仍然樂觀的情況。根據這一預測，比特幣將在2029年達到約308,000美元的高峰，然後進行多個月的價格校正。此後，預測表明，比特幣將繼續集會，到2038年可能超過100萬美元。

As the dust settles on

塵埃落定