标准特许的双币价格预测到2029年，其比特币价格预测至500,000美元，原因是政府暴露

英国跨国银行认为，对比特币代理，尤其是战略（MSTR）股份的主权兴趣越来越多，支持其长期看涨论文。

Standard Chartered is doubling down on its bold forecast that Bitcoin will reach a staggering price of $500,000 by 2029, and now, fresh data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on institutional investment provides support for the bank's thesis.

标准宪章的大胆预测，即到2029年，比特币将达到500,000美元的惊人价格，现在，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）对机构投资的全新数据提供了对银行论文的支持。

As reported by Ben Armstrong on his YouTube channel,্যাউরে 8, Standard Chartered's projection is closely tied to its assumption that Donald Trump will win a second presidential term in 2024. The bank's economists believe that a second Trump term could bring about significant changes in crypto policy, ultimately paving the way for Bitcoin to hit the $500,000 mark.

正如本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）在他的YouTube频道上报道的那样，标准Chartered的预测与假设唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）将在2024年赢得第二个总统任期的假设密切相关。该银行的经济学家认为，第二个特朗普的经济学家认为，第二个特朗普的任期可能会带来重大变化的加密政策，最终为比特币打入500,000美元的方式。

Specifically, Standard Chartered anticipates Trump's administration to roll back regulatory constraints, like the controversial SAB 121 accounting rule, which hampers institutional investment in crypto.

具体而言，《标准特许》预计特朗普的政府将退缩监管限制，例如有争议的SAB 121会计规则，这阻碍了对加密货币的机构投资。

Moreover, the bank predicts that the administration could promote the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to provide institutions with greater access to the asset. These initiatives, in combination with the integration of Bitcoin into the global financial system, could generate substantial demand for the cryptocurrency.

此外，银行预测，政府可以促进与美国战略石油储备类似的战略比特币储备的创建，以提供更多获得资产的机构。这些举措结合了比特币与全球金融体系的整合，可以对加密货币产生大量需求。

Indeed, recent 13F filings, which disclose the equity holdings of U.S. institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management, reveal a concerning trend of these institutions acquiring shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a move seen as a way to gain indirect Bitcoin exposure in jurisdictions where direct holdings may be limited by regulatory frameworks.

的确，最近的13F文件揭示了美国机构投资经理的股权持有，管理资产超过1亿美元，这揭示了这些机构收购了MicroStrategy（MSTR）股票的趋势，这一举动被视为从监管机构受到直接持有的司法管辖区的间接比特币侵害的方式，可以受到监管机构的限制。

In the first quarter of 2025, several sovereign and government entities, including Norway's Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, South Korea's pension bodies, and a few U.S. state retirement funds, collectively increased their MSTR exposure to positions in the tens of thousands of Bitcoin, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research.

据杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick），标准的数字全球件研究，在2025年第一季度，包括挪威政府退休金基金，包括挪威政府退休金基金，瑞士国家银行，瑞士国家银行，韩国养老金机构以及一些美国州退休基金，共同将其MSTR暴露在数以万计的比特币中，杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick），标准的数字全球套件。

These institutions appear to be adjusting their institutional portfolios toward what they deem the "optimal level" of Bitcoin exposure from previously underweight positions.

这些机构似乎正在将其机构投资组合调整为他们认为是从以前的体重不足职位上暴露比特币的“最佳水平”。

While there was disappointing news on the direct ETF front, with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board liquidating its 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in iTrust Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:IBIT), the rise in MSTR investments painted a more encouraging picture.

虽然直接ETF阵线上有令人失望的消息，但威斯康星州投资委员会在Itrust比特币ETF（NYSE：IBIT）中清算了其3,400 BTC当量的位置，MSTR Investments的上升幅度更令人鼓舞。

Kendrick posits that in some cases, entities are using MSTR as a proxy to circumvent regulatory limitations on direct Bitcoin holdings. For instance, the Mubadala Investment Company, a sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, also slightly increased its holdings in IBIT to a Bitcoin-equivalent of 5,000 BTC, further highlighting persistent institutional interest despite regulatory challenges.

肯德里克（Kendrick）认为，在某些情况下，实体正在使用MSTR作为代理来规避直接比特币持有的监管限制。例如，阿布扎比的主权财富基金穆巴达拉投资公司（Mubadala Investment Company）也略微将其在IBIT的持股量增加到了比特币等效的5,000 BTC，尽管有监管挑战，但进一步强调了持续的机构利益。

This aligns with Standard Chartered's broader thesis that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 by 2028. The bank's economists are projecting a scenario where a second Trump term will bring about policies that significantly improve institutional access to Bitcoin and drive up demand for the asset.

这与标准宪章更广泛的论文相吻合，即比特币到2028年可能会涨到500,000美元。该银行的经济学家预测了一种情况，即第二个特朗普期限将带来明显改善对比特币的机构访问并提高对资产需求的政策。

In his analysis, Kendrick highlighted the expanding investor base and decreasing market volatility as tailwinds for Bitcoin adoption. He concluded, "The latest data from the SEC supports our core thesis that Bitcoin will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office."

肯德里克（Kendrick）在他的分析中强调了不断扩大的投资者基础，并随着比特币采用的逆风而减少了市场波动。他总结说：“ SEC的最新数据支持我们的核心论点，即比特币将在特朗普离开办公室之前达到500,000美元的水平。”

As Ben Armstrong noted in his video, Standard Chartered's projection is already commensurately optimistic, but other high-profile figures in the crypto space are even more bullish.

正如本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）在视频中所指出的那样，《标准宪章的投影》已经非常乐观，但是加密货币空间中的其他备受瞩目的人物更加看涨。

For instance, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028. In a recent blog post, Hayes warned of eroding confidence in U.S. Treasuries, arguing that geopolitical instability and capital controls under a Trump-led administration would drive capital into Bitcoin.

例如，Bitmex和Maelstrom的CIO的联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为，到2028年，比特币可能会达到100万美元。在最近的博客文章中，海斯警告说，侵蚀了对美国国债的信心，认为在特朗普领导的政府统治下的地缘政治不稳定和资本控制权将驱动资本投资。

He envisions a scenario where the U.S. Federal Reserve is forced to resort to money printing to offset foreign investment outflows, ultimately weakening the dollar and enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a global hedge.

他设想了一种场景，美国美联储被迫诉诸于货币印刷以抵消外国投资流出，最终削弱了美元并增强了比特币作为全球对冲的吸引力。

Similarly, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a key figure in Bitcoin's early development, has also expressed the $1 million target. Citing strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing regulatory clarity, and a rise in institutional adoption, Back questioned why Bitcoin remains below $100,000.

同样，Blockstream首席执行官Adam Back也表达了100万美元的目标。援引大量的流入为比特币ETF，增加的监管清晰度以及机构采用的增加，质疑比特币为何仍然低于100,000美元。

"There doesn't seem to be a clear logical reason for why we are only at $100,000," Back stated in a recent interview with Decrypt.

“为什么我们只有100,000美元的原因似乎并不是一个明显的逻辑原因，” Back在最近接受解密的采访中说。

Meanwhile, the algorithmic Bitcoin price prediction from CoinCodex is currently forecasting a more toned-down but still optimistic scenario. According to this prediction, Bitcoin will hit a peak of roughly $308,000 in 2029 before experiencing a multi-month price correction. Afterward, the prediction suggests that Bitcoin will continue to rally, potentially surpassing the $1 million mark by 2038.

同时，Coincodex的算法比特币价格预测目前正在预测一种更加调整但仍然乐观的情况。根据这一预测，比特币将在2029年达到约308,000美元的高峰，然后进行多个月的价格校正。此后，预测表明，比特币将继续集会，到2038年可能超过100万美元。

As the dust settles on

尘埃落定