只需討論隨後的情況即可。

毫無疑問，市場已經轉變。所有主要的負面因素基本上都降落，包括關稅。 6月的降低率幾乎是確定性（70％）。

The market has definitely changed. All major negative factors have landed, such as tariffs. June’s interest rate cuts are almost a certainty (70%). The market consensus is returning to a state of crazy acceleration.

市場肯定發生了變化。所有主要的負面因素都降落了，例如關稅。六月的降低降低幾乎是確定性的（70％）。市場共識正在恢復瘋狂的加速狀態。

After taking a look around, the proportion of those missing out beside me is at least 60%, and Bitcoin is still strong, with Ethereum leading the charge. The core factor behind Ethereum’s surge is simple: it has dropped too much and too thoroughly, basically all the old OGs have completely lost faith, with countless people getting off the train (I also admit I suffered a big loss). So now Ethereum is very healthy and has huge potential for growth.

環顧四周之後，我旁邊缺少的人的比例至少為60％，比特幣仍然很強，以太坊帶領了這一指控。以太坊激增的核心因素很簡單：它已經下降了太多，太徹底了，基本上所有舊的OGS都完全失去了信心，無數人下車（我也承認我遭受了巨大的損失）。因此，現在以太坊非常健康，並且具有巨大的增長潛力。

Bitcoin doesn’t have much to say; it belongs to another species. It wouldn’t be surprising if it reaches 150,000 or 200,000 in the second half of the year; it has that strength and potential. However, Bitcoin is no longer suitable for more than 90% of the market, or rather, 99% of people won’t buy Bitcoin because they can’t afford it. It’s that simple; it’s another species. Huge capital giants can no longer harvest retail investors like you and me from Bitcoin.

比特幣無話可說；它屬於另一個物種。如果下半年達到150,000或200,000，就不足為奇了；它具有這種力量和潛力。但是，比特幣不再適合90％以上的市場，或者更確切地說，99％的人不會買比特幣，因為他們負擔不起。這就是那麼簡單；這是另一個物種。龐大的資本巨頭無法再從比特幣中收穫像您和我這樣的零售投資者。

Next up is altcoins. The previous two rounds of widespread altcoins rallies are unlikely to occur. Firstly, the four-year cycle has been broken, and secondly, there are too many junk tokens in the core market, which can be understood as the ‘penny stocks’ of the US market. The top ten or top hundred tech giants in the US have continuously risen for 20 years, while penny stocks endlessly plummet into the abyss. Therefore, the choice ahead is definitely more important than effort.

接下來是Altcoins。前兩輪廣泛的山寨幣集會不太可能發生。首先，四年周期已經打破，其次，核心市場中的垃圾令牌太多，可以理解為美國市場的“一分錢股票”。美國排名前十或前一百位科技巨頭持續上升了20年，而Penny Stocks無休止地陷入了深淵。因此，未來的選擇絕對比努力更重要。

Purchase projects with strong fundamentals that truly have the strength to lead the market, or altcoins that the community is genuinely building consensus around.

採購具有強大基本原理的項目真正具有領導市場的力量，或者社區真正建立共識的山寨幣。

Currently, the leading ‘dog coins’ SOL (Bonk) and ETH (PEPE) are the most typical examples, with funding and community all being very strong. As for BSC’s dog coins, after thinking for a few days, there’s no clear leader. BSC probably only has temporary dog coin leaders, in the areas where scammers are the most rampant, which can be monitored in the future.

目前，領先的“狗硬幣”（Bonk）和ETH（PEPE）是最典型的例子，資金和社區都非常強大。至於BSC的狗硬幣，經過幾天的思考，沒有明確的領導者。 BSC可能只有臨時的狗硬幣領導者，在騙子最猖ramp的地區，將來可以對其進行監控。

Let’s talk about BNB. The facts from the past six months have once again proven that when almost all exchanges in the market are useless, only Binance can wave the flag and stir up the clouds! Moreover, BNB is the second most stable token in the entire cryptocurrency circle, second only to Bitcoin. So hold it with peace of mind; there will be new enablements or gameplay in the future.

讓我們談談BNB。過去六個月的事實再次證明，當市場上幾乎所有的交流都沒有用時，只有binance才能揮舞著旗幟並激發雲！此外，BNB是整個加密貨幣圓圈中第二大最穩定的令牌，僅次於比特幣。因此，請放心；將來會有新的啟用或遊戲玩法。

The main line for the second half has already emerged. Whether it’s interest rate cuts or massive liquidity injections, no one thinks that in the era of China’s crazy liquidity, the Americans won’t also inject liquidity, right? Quantitative easing only has one progenitor and unique leader, which is the US. No other country can play this game better than the US, so the huge pump is always on the way. Surviving until that day is the only thing that needs to be done.

下半年的主線已經出現。無論是降低利率還是大量流動性注射，沒有人認為在中國瘋狂流動性時代，美國人也不會注入流動性，對嗎？定量寬鬆只有一個祖先和獨特的領導者，即美國。沒有其他國家能比美國更好地玩這個遊戲，因此巨大的泵總是在路上。直到那天生存是唯一需要做的事情。

I only talk about results. The most optimistic time for the market is from July to October, which is a quarter where it’s highly likely that no one can catch up with the market. All fundamental aspects will be mature by then. Before this, there is only one thing to do: stay on the train.

我只談論結果。市場上最樂觀的時間是從7月到10月，這是一個季度，很有可能沒有人能趕上市場。到那時，所有基本方面都將成熟。在此之前，只有一件事要做：留在火車上。

This time’s surge, Bitcoin has once again broken through 100,000, Ethereum at 2600. The most discussed in the market is missing out. I’ve told my friends around me no less than three times: in any market, at any price, in any financial market, if you think it’s a bear market and there’s no hope, then immediately clear your positions and leave. Go back to work properly.

這次的激增，比特幣再次破壞了100,000，以太坊在2600中。市場上討論最多的人缺失了。我已經告訴我周圍的朋友不少於三遍：在任何市場上，在任何金融市場上，如果您認為這是一個熊市，沒有希望，那麼立即清除您的職位並離開。返回正常工作。

If you believe that the bull market hasn’t arrived yet or are optimistic about the future, the only thing you need to do is stay on the train, regardless of the price.

如果您認為牛市尚未到達或對未來感到樂觀，那麼無論價格如何，您唯一需要做的就是留在火車上。

Without chips, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin is at 1 million dollars tomorrow.

沒有芯片，明天比特幣的100萬美元都沒關係。

Therefore, you must have chips. High-quality large-cap altcoins have a chance to increase 3-5 times in the second half of the year, while undervalued altcoins with market caps in the tens of millions to a billion could also rise by 10 times starting from there. No one knows exactly where it can reach, but you must throw yourself into it. Looking will always make you poor; only doing will yield results.

因此，您必須有籌碼。高質量的大型Altcoins在下半年有機會增加3-5次，而被低估的山寨幣（以數千萬到十億美元的速度）從那裡開始也可能會增加10倍。沒有人確切知道它可以到達哪裡，但是您必須將自己扔進去。看起來總是會讓你貧窮；只有這樣做才能產生結果。

Wishing everyone prosperity.

祝大家繁榮。

2025.5.12 Whale $BTC $ETH $BNB

2025.5.12鯨魚$ btc $ eth $ bnb