只需讨论随后的情况即可。

毫无疑问，市场已经转变。所有主要的负面因素基本上都降落，包括关税。 6月的降低率几乎是确定性（70％）。

The market has definitely changed. All major negative factors have landed, such as tariffs. June’s interest rate cuts are almost a certainty (70%). The market consensus is returning to a state of crazy acceleration.

市场肯定发生了变化。所有主要的负面因素都降落了，例如关税。六月的降低降低几乎是确定性的（70％）。市场共识正在恢复疯狂的加速状态。

After taking a look around, the proportion of those missing out beside me is at least 60%, and Bitcoin is still strong, with Ethereum leading the charge. The core factor behind Ethereum’s surge is simple: it has dropped too much and too thoroughly, basically all the old OGs have completely lost faith, with countless people getting off the train (I also admit I suffered a big loss). So now Ethereum is very healthy and has huge potential for growth.

环顾四周之后，我旁边缺少的人的比例至少为60％，比特币仍然很强，以太坊带领了这一指控。以太坊激增的核心因素很简单：它已经下降了太多，太彻底了，基本上所有旧的OGS都完全失去了信心，无数人下车（我也承认我遭受了巨大的损失）。因此，现在以太坊非常健康，并且具有巨大的增长潜力。

Bitcoin doesn’t have much to say; it belongs to another species. It wouldn’t be surprising if it reaches 150,000 or 200,000 in the second half of the year; it has that strength and potential. However, Bitcoin is no longer suitable for more than 90% of the market, or rather, 99% of people won’t buy Bitcoin because they can’t afford it. It’s that simple; it’s another species. Huge capital giants can no longer harvest retail investors like you and me from Bitcoin.

比特币无话可说；它属于另一个物种。如果下半年达到150,000或200,000，就不足为奇了；它具有这种力量和潜力。但是，比特币不再适合90％以上的市场，或者更确切地说，99％的人不会买比特币，因为他们负担不起。这就是那么简单；这是另一个物种。庞大的资本巨头无法再从比特币中收获像您和我这样的零售投资者。

Next up is altcoins. The previous two rounds of widespread altcoins rallies are unlikely to occur. Firstly, the four-year cycle has been broken, and secondly, there are too many junk tokens in the core market, which can be understood as the ‘penny stocks’ of the US market. The top ten or top hundred tech giants in the US have continuously risen for 20 years, while penny stocks endlessly plummet into the abyss. Therefore, the choice ahead is definitely more important than effort.

接下来是Altcoins。前两轮广泛的山寨币集会不太可能发生。首先，四年周期已经打破，其次，核心市场中的垃圾令牌太多，可以理解为美国市场的“一分钱股票”。美国排名前十或前一百位科技巨头持续上升了20年，而Penny Stocks无休止地陷入了深渊。因此，未来的选择绝对比努力更重要。

Purchase projects with strong fundamentals that truly have the strength to lead the market, or altcoins that the community is genuinely building consensus around.

采购具有强大基本原理的项目真正具有领导市场的力量，或者社区真正建立共识的山寨币。

Currently, the leading ‘dog coins’ SOL (Bonk) and ETH (PEPE) are the most typical examples, with funding and community all being very strong. As for BSC’s dog coins, after thinking for a few days, there’s no clear leader. BSC probably only has temporary dog coin leaders, in the areas where scammers are the most rampant, which can be monitored in the future.

目前，领先的“狗硬币”（Bonk）和ETH（PEPE）是最典型的例子，资金和社区都非常强大。至于BSC的狗硬币，经过几天的思考，没有明确的领导者。 BSC可能只有临时的狗硬币领导者，在骗子最猖ramp的地区，将来可以对其进行监控。

Let’s talk about BNB. The facts from the past six months have once again proven that when almost all exchanges in the market are useless, only Binance can wave the flag and stir up the clouds! Moreover, BNB is the second most stable token in the entire cryptocurrency circle, second only to Bitcoin. So hold it with peace of mind; there will be new enablements or gameplay in the future.

让我们谈谈BNB。过去六个月的事实再次证明，当市场上几乎所有的交流都没有用时，只有binance才能挥舞着旗帜并激发云！此外，BNB是整个加密货币圆圈中第二大最稳定的令牌，仅次于比特币。因此，请放心；将来会有新的启用或游戏玩法。

The main line for the second half has already emerged. Whether it’s interest rate cuts or massive liquidity injections, no one thinks that in the era of China’s crazy liquidity, the Americans won’t also inject liquidity, right? Quantitative easing only has one progenitor and unique leader, which is the US. No other country can play this game better than the US, so the huge pump is always on the way. Surviving until that day is the only thing that needs to be done.

下半年的主线已经出现。无论是降低利率还是大量流动性注射，没有人认为在中国疯狂流动性时代，美国人也不会注入流动性，对吗？定量宽松只有一个祖先和独特的领导者，即美国。没有其他国家能比美国更好地玩这个游戏，因此巨大的泵总是在路上。直到那天生存是唯一需要做的事情。

I only talk about results. The most optimistic time for the market is from July to October, which is a quarter where it’s highly likely that no one can catch up with the market. All fundamental aspects will be mature by then. Before this, there is only one thing to do: stay on the train.

我只谈论结果。市场上最乐观的时间是从7月到10月，这是一个季度，很有可能没有人能赶上市场。到那时，所有基本方面都将成熟。在此之前，只有一件事要做：留在火车上。

This time’s surge, Bitcoin has once again broken through 100,000, Ethereum at 2600. The most discussed in the market is missing out. I’ve told my friends around me no less than three times: in any market, at any price, in any financial market, if you think it’s a bear market and there’s no hope, then immediately clear your positions and leave. Go back to work properly.

这次的激增，比特币再次破坏了100,000，以太坊在2600中。市场上讨论最多的人缺失了。我已经告诉我周围的朋友不少于三遍：在任何市场上，在任何金融市场上，如果您认为这是一个熊市，没有希望，那么立即清除您的职位并离开。返回正常工作。

If you believe that the bull market hasn’t arrived yet or are optimistic about the future, the only thing you need to do is stay on the train, regardless of the price.

如果您认为牛市尚未到达或对未来感到乐观，那么无论价格如何，您唯一需要做的就是留在火车上。

Without chips, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin is at 1 million dollars tomorrow.

没有芯片，明天比特币的100万美元都没关系。

Therefore, you must have chips. High-quality large-cap altcoins have a chance to increase 3-5 times in the second half of the year, while undervalued altcoins with market caps in the tens of millions to a billion could also rise by 10 times starting from there. No one knows exactly where it can reach, but you must throw yourself into it. Looking will always make you poor; only doing will yield results.

因此，您必须有筹码。高质量的大型Altcoins在下半年有机会增加3-5次，而被低估的山寨币（以数千万到十亿美元的速度）从那里开始也可能会增加10倍。没有人确切知道它可以到达哪里，但是您必须将自己扔进去。看起来总是会让你贫穷；只有这样做才能产生结果。

Wishing everyone prosperity.

祝大家繁荣。

2025.5.12 Whale $BTC $ETH $BNB

2025.5.12鲸鱼$ btc $ eth $ bnb