魯托、加查瓜為政治生存而戰，拉伊拉出現了生命線和責任

他們處於硬幣的不同側面，但他們的處境卻大致相同。總統威廉·魯托和副總統裡加蒂·加查瓜都發現自己正在為政治生存而戰。

Both President William Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua are facing political challenges, despite being on opposing sides.

總統威廉·魯托（William Ruto）和副總統裡加蒂·加查瓜（Rigathi Gachagua）儘管站在對立的一邊，但都面臨政治挑戰。

Ruto is relying on former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who has accompanied him on recent trips to China, Germany, and the United States, to maintain his presidency.

魯托依靠前總理拉伊拉·奧廷加來維持總統職位，奧廷加最近陪同他訪問了中國、德國和美國。

After a youth-led uprising threatened the Kenya Kwanza administration, Odinga appears to be Ruto's lifeline. The former premier's support is also crucial as the Head of State faces challenges from his deputy and benötigt allies.

在青年領導的起義威脅肯亞寬札政府後，奧廷加似乎成為魯託的生命線。由於國家元首面臨來自副手和貝諾蒂特盟友的挑戰，前總理的支持也至關重要。

For the most part, Raila has seemed like a solid partner Ruto could count on. Despite boasting the backing of more than 40 MPs from Gachagua's Mt Kenya backyard, an apparent illusion of victory against his deputy, Raila seems to be the pillar holding the President together.

在大多數情況下，拉伊拉似乎是魯托可以信賴的可靠合作夥伴。儘管拉拉吹噓自己得到了加查瓜肯尼亞山後院 40 多名議員的支持，這顯然是他的副手獲勝的假象，但拉伊拉似乎是團結總統的支柱。

Ruto, a tactful politician who outsmarted his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, and claimed the presidency, now finds himself depending on others to guarantee his survival. Two years ago, he did not seem so vulnerable, having accessed the Mt Kenya vote without any middlemen.

魯托是一位機智的政治家，他比前老闆烏胡魯·肯雅塔更聰明，並奪得了總統寶座，但現在他發現自己要依靠其他人來保證自己的生存。兩年前，他似乎沒有那麼脆弱，在沒有任何中間人的情況下獲得了肯亞山的投票。

It had seemed that Ruto had inherited former President Uhuru Kenyatta's throne, with MPs opposed to the former failing in the 2022 General Election.

魯托似乎繼承了前總統烏胡魯肯雅塔的王位，但議員反對魯託在 2022 年大選中失敗。

The tables have quickly turned and the President is struggling to keep to one strategy to tame Gachagua, whose lamentations are snatching Mt Kenya away from the President's grip.

局勢很快就發生了轉變，總統正在努力堅持一項馴服嘎查瓜的策略，它的哀嚎正在將肯亞山從總統的手中奪走。

Fearful that his deputy's popularity could be growing in Mt Kenya, Ruto's allies are fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as their point man as they plan to impeach Gachagua.

魯託的盟友擔心他的副手在肯亞山的受歡迎程度可能會上升，因此計劃彈劾加查瓜，並以內政部內閣部長基蘇爾·金迪基為核心人物。

Observers view Kindiki's pick as aimed to keep the options open for Ruto in 2027, given he is a much easier deputy to drop as the repercussions will not be as significant.

觀察家認為，金迪基的選擇旨在為魯託在 2027 年保留選擇餘地，因為他是一名更容易被放棄的副手，而且影響不會那麼大。

A previous bid to prop up Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro as an alternative flopped and the President has come up as desperate to rid himself of Gachagua sooner rather than later, which could have ramifications. Now he is like a man with gangrene which must be gorged out skilfully. Any misadventure with the scalpel may exorcise the gangrene but leave the host with mortal wounds.

先前支持 Kiharu 議員 Ndindi Nyoro 作為替代方案的努力失敗了，總統迫切希望盡快擺脫 Gachagua，這可能會產生影響。現在他就像一個壞疽的人，必須巧妙地吞掉。手術刀的任何意外都可能驅除壞疽，但會給宿主留下致命的傷口。

“Musalia Mudavadi warned that a withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 would be like a vote of no confidence. Ruto lost his legitimacy on June 25 when Parliament was breached. If he wants to regain legitimacy by dumping his deputy then good luck to him,” said businessman cum politician Jimi Wanjigi.

「穆薩利亞·穆達瓦迪 (Musalia Mudavadi) 警告稱，撤回《2024 年財政法案》就像一次不信任投票。 6 月 25 日，議會遭到破壞，魯托失去了合法性。如果他想透過甩掉副手來重新獲得合法性，那麼祝他好運。

On his part, Gachagua is fighting to keep his job and is pegging his hopes on the “ground” to force lawmakers from the Mount Kenya region to shelve the ouster plan.

就加查瓜而言，他正在努力保住自己的工作，並將希望寄託在「地面」上，以迫使肯亞山地區的立法者擱置罷免計劃。

Similarly, he has resorted to blackmailing his boss, recently warning of consequences if his Central Kenya backyard were to deem Ruto a traitor if he is to be discarded.

同樣，他也敲詐了他的老闆，最近警告說，如果他的肯亞中部後院將魯托視為叛徒，如果他被拋棄，他將承擔後果。

He is equally pleading to keep his job, urging Ruto to shelve the ouster bid and wait for the next election.

他同樣懇求保住自己的職位，敦促魯托擱置罷免提案並等待下一次選舉。

An impeachment motion had seemed farfetched, but the President's alliance with Raila has made such a move within reach. The Deputy President finds himself trapped, fully aware that he will struggle to fight off his impeachment courtesy of his meager support in Parliament.

彈劾動議似乎有些牽強，但總統與拉伊拉的聯盟使彈劾動議變得觸手可及。副總統發現自己陷入了困境，他充分意識到，由於他在議會中的微薄支持，他將很難抵抗彈劾。

Reports indicate that more than 300 MPs have appended their signatures in support of the motion.

報道稱，已有超過300名議員簽署支持該動議。

Gachagua is supported by a handful of MPs from his Mt Kenya backyard, the result of his self-isolation from the rest of the country. The general feeling among lawmakers is that he will fall if the impeachment motion is tabled in Parliament.

Gachagua 得到了來自肯亞山後院的少數議員的支持，這是他與該國其他地區自我隔離的結果。議員們普遍認為，如果彈劾動議提交議會，他就會下台。

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita believes Gachagua will lose his relevance if impeached.

烏裡裡議員馬克·尼亞米塔 (Mark Nyamita) 認為，如果彈劾，嘎查瓜將失去其相關性。

“His relevance only goes as far as he is sitting in that office because people want someone who can speak on their behalf. He has already lost relevance among MPs. He was vocal fighting when Uhuru and Raila and found himself with no one else to fight but his boss,” said Nyamita.

「只有當他坐在辦公室裡時，他的相關性才發揮作用，因為人們希望有人能夠代表他們發言。他已經在國會議員中失去了影響力。當烏呼魯和拉拉時，他大聲爭吵，發現自己除了老闆之外沒有其他人可以戰鬥，」尼亞米塔說。

The DP and his allies do not share this view.

民主黨及其盟友並不同意這一觀點。

“Our people hate betrayal and are very unforgiving if you betray them. I ask my brother Ruto not to be tempted to go to that direction because these people will be very unforgiving,” he said.

「我們的人民討厭背叛，如果你背叛他們，他們會非常不寬容。我請求我的兄弟魯託不要被誘惑走向那個方向，因為這些人會非常無情，」他說。

Gachagua's fall is not necessarily Ruto's gain. While the DP's exit allows the President to replace the former with a more ‘loyal’ ally, it also exposes him in case Gachagua leaves with the Mt Kenya bloc on whose back Ruto rode to the presidency.

嘎查瓜的倒下不一定是魯託的收穫。雖然民主黨的退出讓總統可以用一個更「忠誠」的盟友取代前者，但這也讓他面臨著風險，以防加查瓜與肯尼亞山集團一起離開，而魯托則依靠該集團登上了總統寶座。

“If the people in Mt Kenya interpret the political developments as Ruto kicking them out, then the retaliation will be serious. If the ground has shifted with Gachagua, then everyone opposing him in Mt

「如果肯亞山的人民將政治發展解釋為魯托將他們趕出去，那麼報復將是嚴重的。如果嘎查瓜的立場發生了變化，那麼山上所有反對他的人