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XRP是一個沉睡的巨人要醒來,還是有更好的加密魚可以炸?我們深入研究Ripple(XRP)的炒作,現實和未來,以幫助您確定現在是否可以購買。
Ripple (XRP) has seen explosive potential, but is now the time to buy? XRP has already displayed its upside, skyrocketing 580% between November 2024 and January 2025. But with XRP once again under $3, is it time to buy or look elsewhere?
Ripple(XRP)已經看到了爆炸性的潛力,但是現在是時候購買了嗎? XRP已經顯示出其上漲空間,在2024年11月至2025年1月之間飆升了580%。但是,XRP再次不到3美元,是時候購買或看其他地方了嗎?
The Hype vs. Reality of XRP
炒作與XRP的現實
The biggest problem with XRP is that it has failed to live up to its advance billing. Nearly every quarter, there's some amazing new catalyst that is supposed to send the price of XRP soaring to the moon.
XRP最大的問題是它未能辜負其提前計費。幾乎每個季度,都有一些令人驚嘆的新催化劑,應該將XRP的價格寄給月球。
This year, there has been considerable discussion about the XRP-powered blockchain (known as the XRP Ledger) eventually replacing or integrating with the incumbent SWIFT payment network for cross-border bank transfers. According to this line of thinking, SWIFT is running on 50-year-old technology that's slow, clunky, and badly in need of a replacement. In contrast, XRP offers near real-time settlement of payments, and is considerably cheaper.
今年,關於XRP驅動的區塊鏈(稱為XRP Ledger)的討論最終與現任跨境銀行轉讓的現任Swift Swift網絡進行了替換或集成。根據這種思維方式,Swift正在使用50年曆史的技術運行,該技術很慢,笨拙且急需替換。相比之下,XRP提供了幾乎實時的付款結算,並且便宜得多。
In theory, if the XRP Ledger captures even a tiny fraction of the cross-border payment market, it could result in the value of XRP soaring. After all, the SWIFT network sees nearly $150 trillion in transaction volume each year. Earlier this year, Ripple executives suggested that the XRP Ledger might capture as much as 14% of this market within the next five years, or roughly $21 trillion in transaction volume.
從理論上講,如果XRP分類帳甚至捕獲了跨境支付市場的一小部分,則可能導致XRP飆升的價值。畢竟,Swift網絡每年看到近150萬億美元的交易量。今年早些時候,Ripple高管建議XRP Ledger可能在未來五年內佔據該市場的14%,約為21萬億美元的交易量。
The reality is that stablecoins are arguably much better and much more efficient than XRP at accomplishing the same task. XRP is really just a bridge currency. It's a currency that banking institutions use to convert from one currency to another. So there's always a certain amount of exchange risk when using XRP, given that its value can swing wildly. Banks don't have the same problem with stablecoins, which are pegged 1-to-1 to the U.S. dollar, and are designed to preserve their value.
現實情況是,在完成相同任務時,穩定幣比XRP要好得多,而且更有效。 XRP實際上只是橋樑貨幣。這是銀行機構用來從一種貨幣轉換為另一種貨幣的貨幣。因此,使用XRP時,總會有一定數量的交換風險,因為其價值可以瘋狂地擺動。銀行對stablecoins的問題沒有相同的問題,stabablecoins與美元掛鉤,旨在保持其價值。
XRP's True Upside Potential?
XRP真正的上升潛力?
All the hype and buzz surrounding XRP makes it difficult to forecast its true upside potential. It's not uncommon to see price estimates for XRP that project it becoming a $10 token within the next few years.
XRP周圍的所有炒作和嗡嗡聲使得很難預測其真正的上升潛力。看到XRP的價格估算值在未來幾年內將成為10美元的令牌,這並不少見。
Standard Chartered thinks XRP is going to hit a price of $5.50 by the end of this year. Given its current price of about $2.80, that implies a near-doubling in value within a period of three months. Moreover, it assumes that XRP will trade higher than $4 -- something that it has never done in its 13-year history.
Standard Chartered認為,到今年年底,XRP將達到5.50美元的價格。鑑於其目前的價格約為2.80美元,這意味著在三個月內價值幾乎增加了一倍。此外,它假設XRP的交易價格將高於4美元,這是其13年曆史上從未做過的。
Don't Ignore XRP's Coin Supply
不要忽略XRP的硬幣供應
XRP's enormous coin supply is driving much of its current market cap. The current circulating supply of XRP is 60 billion coins. Thus, even if the price of XRP fell to $0.50 (which is where it was trading back in November 2024), it would still rank among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, with a market cap of $30 billion.
XRP的大量硬幣供應正在推動其目前的大部分市場上限。當前XRP的循環供應是600億個硬幣。因此,即使XRP的價格降至0.50美元(這是2024年11月交易的價格),它仍將排名前10名加密貨幣,市值為300億美元。
XRP's coin supply of 60 billion leads to a vastly inflated market cap that could be misleading for investors. Ripple insiders control an estimated 40% of the coin supply. That's an extreme concentration of ownership for a digital asset that is supposed to be decentralized. Any selling by these insiders could tank XRP's price, as we saw earlier this summer, when a single Ripple insider dumped 50 million XRP.
XRP的硬幣供應600億美元導致市值大大膨脹,這可能會對投資者產生誤導。 Ripple內部人控制著估計的硬幣供應的40%。對於應該分散的數字資產來說,這是一個極高的所有權。這些內部人士的任何銷售都可以打動XRP的價格,正如我們在今年夏天早些時候看到的那樣,當時一個波紋內部人士拋棄了5000萬XRP。
Time to Buy XRP?
是時候購買XRP了嗎?
For these reasons, I'm extremely hesitant to buy XRP right now. There are plenty of bargain-basement cryptos priced for less than $5, and some of them arguably have even more upside potential than XRP right now.
由於這些原因,我現在非常不願立即購買XRP。有很多價格低於5美元的討價還價的加密貨幣,其中有些可以說,現在比XRP具有更大的上升潛力。
Although XRP may have plenty of upside potential over the long haul, it's hard to see XRP going on another epic rally during the final three months of the year. As long as Bitcoin remains mired in a slump, making it unlikely the entire sector heads higher, the breakout potential of XRP probably is limited.
儘管XRP從長遠來看可能具有很大的上升潛力,但很難在一年中的最後三個月中看到XRP進行另一場史詩般的集會。只要比特幣仍然陷入低迷,使整個部門的頭部不太可能更高,XRP的突破潛力可能是有限的。
The Verdict
判決
Investing in XRP is like ordering a pastrami on rye from a food truck: It *could* be amazing, but there are probably safer, tastier bets on the menu. Keep an eye on those key levels, but maybe don't bet the whole farm just yet.
投資XRP就像是從一輛食品卡車上訂購五香熏牛肉: *可能 *很棒,但是菜單上可能會有更安全,更美味的賭注。請密切關注這些關鍵水平,但也許不要敢打賭整個農場。
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