Ripple（XRP）：立即购买还是再见？

XRP是一个沉睡的巨人要醒来，还是有更好的加密鱼可以炸？我们深入研究Ripple（XRP）的炒作，现实和未来，以帮助您确定现在是否可以购买。

Ripple (XRP) has seen explosive potential, but is now the time to buy? XRP has already displayed its upside, skyrocketing 580% between November 2024 and January 2025. But with XRP once again under $3, is it time to buy or look elsewhere?

Ripple（XRP）已经看到了爆炸性的潜力，但是现在是时候购买了吗？ XRP已经显示出其上涨空间，在2024年11月至2025年1月之间飙升了580％。但是，XRP再次不到3美元，是时候购买或看其他地方了吗？

The Hype vs. Reality of XRP

炒作与XRP的现实

The biggest problem with XRP is that it has failed to live up to its advance billing. Nearly every quarter, there's some amazing new catalyst that is supposed to send the price of XRP soaring to the moon.

XRP最大的问题是它未能辜负其提前计费。几乎每个季度，都有一些令人惊叹的新催化剂，应该将XRP的价格寄给月球。

This year, there has been considerable discussion about the XRP-powered blockchain (known as the XRP Ledger) eventually replacing or integrating with the incumbent SWIFT payment network for cross-border bank transfers. According to this line of thinking, SWIFT is running on 50-year-old technology that's slow, clunky, and badly in need of a replacement. In contrast, XRP offers near real-time settlement of payments, and is considerably cheaper.

今年，关于XRP驱动的区块链（称为XRP Ledger）的讨论最终与现任跨境银行转让的现任Swift Swift网络进行了替换或集成。根据这种思维方式，Swift正在使用50年历史的技术运行，该技术很慢，笨拙且急需替换。相比之下，XRP提供了几乎实时的付款结算，并且便宜得多。

In theory, if the XRP Ledger captures even a tiny fraction of the cross-border payment market, it could result in the value of XRP soaring. After all, the SWIFT network sees nearly $150 trillion in transaction volume each year. Earlier this year, Ripple executives suggested that the XRP Ledger might capture as much as 14% of this market within the next five years, or roughly $21 trillion in transaction volume.

从理论上讲，如果XRP分类帐甚至捕获了跨境支付市场的一小部分，则可能导致XRP飙升的价值。毕竟，Swift网络每年看到近150万亿美元的交易量。今年早些时候，Ripple高管建议XRP Ledger可能在未来五年内占据该市场的14％，约为21万亿美元的交易量。

The reality is that stablecoins are arguably much better and much more efficient than XRP at accomplishing the same task. XRP is really just a bridge currency. It's a currency that banking institutions use to convert from one currency to another. So there's always a certain amount of exchange risk when using XRP, given that its value can swing wildly. Banks don't have the same problem with stablecoins, which are pegged 1-to-1 to the U.S. dollar, and are designed to preserve their value.

现实情况是，在完成相同任务时，稳定币比XRP要好得多，而且更有效。 XRP实际上只是桥梁货币。这是银行机构用来从一种货币转换为另一种货币的货币。因此，使用XRP时，总会有一定数量的交换风险，因为其价值可以疯狂地摆动。银行对stablecoins的问题没有相同的问题，stabablecoins与美元挂钩，旨在保持其价值。

XRP's True Upside Potential?

XRP真正的上升潜力？

All the hype and buzz surrounding XRP makes it difficult to forecast its true upside potential. It's not uncommon to see price estimates for XRP that project it becoming a $10 token within the next few years.

XRP周围的所有炒作和嗡嗡声使得很难预测其真正的上升潜力。看到XRP的价格估算值在未来几年内将成为10美元的令牌，这并不少见。

Standard Chartered thinks XRP is going to hit a price of $5.50 by the end of this year. Given its current price of about $2.80, that implies a near-doubling in value within a period of three months. Moreover, it assumes that XRP will trade higher than $4 -- something that it has never done in its 13-year history.

Standard Chartered认为，到今年年底，XRP将达到5.50美元的价格。鉴于其目前的价格约为2.80美元，这意味着在三个月内价值几乎增加了一倍。此外，它假设XRP的交易价格将高于4美元，这是其13年历史上从未做过的。

Don't Ignore XRP's Coin Supply

不要忽略XRP的硬币供应

XRP's enormous coin supply is driving much of its current market cap. The current circulating supply of XRP is 60 billion coins. Thus, even if the price of XRP fell to $0.50 (which is where it was trading back in November 2024), it would still rank among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, with a market cap of $30 billion.

XRP的大量硬币供应正在推动其目前的大部分市场上限。当前XRP的循环供应是600亿个硬币。因此，即使XRP的价格降至0.50美元（这是2024年11月交易的价格），它仍将排名前10名加密货币，市值为300亿美元。

XRP's coin supply of 60 billion leads to a vastly inflated market cap that could be misleading for investors. Ripple insiders control an estimated 40% of the coin supply. That's an extreme concentration of ownership for a digital asset that is supposed to be decentralized. Any selling by these insiders could tank XRP's price, as we saw earlier this summer, when a single Ripple insider dumped 50 million XRP.

XRP的硬币供应600亿美元导致市值大大膨胀，这可能会对投资者产生误导。 Ripple内部人控制着估计的硬币供应的40％。对于应该分散的数字资产来说，这是一个极高的所有权。这些内部人士的任何销售都可以打动XRP的价格，正如我们在今年夏天早些时候看到的那样，当时一个波纹内部人士抛弃了5000万XRP。

Time to Buy XRP?

是时候购买XRP了吗？

For these reasons, I'm extremely hesitant to buy XRP right now. There are plenty of bargain-basement cryptos priced for less than $5, and some of them arguably have even more upside potential than XRP right now.

由于这些原因，我现在非常不愿立即购买XRP。有很多价格低于5美元的讨价还价的加密货币，其中有些可以说，现在比XRP具有更大的上升潜力。

Although XRP may have plenty of upside potential over the long haul, it's hard to see XRP going on another epic rally during the final three months of the year. As long as Bitcoin remains mired in a slump, making it unlikely the entire sector heads higher, the breakout potential of XRP probably is limited.

尽管XRP从长远来看可能具有很大的上升潜力，但很难在一年中的最后三个月中看到XRP进行另一场史诗般的集会。只要比特币仍然陷入低迷，使整个部门的头部不太可能更高，XRP的突破潜力可能是有限的。

The Verdict

判决

Investing in XRP is like ordering a pastrami on rye from a food truck: It *could* be amazing, but there are probably safer, tastier bets on the menu. Keep an eye on those key levels, but maybe don't bet the whole farm just yet.

投资XRP就像是从一辆食品卡车上订购五香熏牛肉： *可能 *很棒，但是菜单上可能会有更安全，更美味的赌注。请密切关注这些关键水平，但也许不要敢打赌整个农场。