乘坐比特幣過山車：減半、市場動態以及下一步發展

經典的比特幣週期已經死了嗎？我們深入探討減半事件、市場流動性以及塑造比特幣未來的力量。

Riding the Bitcoin Rollercoaster: Halving, Market Dynamics, and What's Next

乘坐比特幣過山車：減半、市場動態以及下一步發展

The Bitcoin market is never boring, especially when you factor in the halving events, overall market dynamics, and constant speculation about its future. Is the four-year cycle a thing of the past? Let's break it down.

比特幣市場永遠不會無聊，尤其是當你考慮到減半事件、整體市場動態以及對其未來的不斷猜測時。四年周期已經成為過去了嗎？讓我們來分解一下。

The Halving and Its Historical Hype

減半及其歷史炒作

Ah, the halving. That magical moment when Bitcoin's block reward gets sliced in half, theoretically reducing supply and driving up the price. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and historically, these events have coincided with major market cycles. However, the actual price impact? Well, that's been a bit all over the place.

啊，減半。比特幣的區塊獎勵被切成兩半的神奇時刻，理論上減少了供應並推高了價格。最近一次減半發生在 2024 年 4 月，從歷史上看，這些事件與主要市場週期同時發生。然而，實際價格影響如何？好吧，這有點到處都是。

Hayes's Hot Take: Monetary Policy is King

海斯的熱門觀點：貨幣政策為王

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, throws a wrench in the works. He argues that Bitcoin's past cycles were driven more by monetary tightening and easing than by the halving itself. According to Hayes, the real drivers are the supply and quantity of major global currencies like the US dollar and Chinese yuan. When central banks pump liquidity into the market, Bitcoin parties. When they tighten the screws, Bitcoin feels the squeeze. Makes sense, right?

BitMEX 前首席執行官 Arthur Hayes 阻礙了這項工作。他認為，比特幣過去的周期更多地是由貨幣緊縮和寬鬆所驅動，而不是減半本身。海耶斯認為，真正的驅動因素是美元和人民幣等全球主要貨幣的供應和數量。當央行向市場注入流動性時，比特幣就會參與。當他們擰緊螺絲時，比特幣就會感受​​到擠壓。有道理，對吧？

Liquidity: The Unsung Hero?

流動性：無名英雄？

So, if halvings aren't the be-all and end-all, what is? Liquidity. When central banks expand their balance sheets, that extra cash can flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, tightening monetary policy sucks liquidity out, putting pressure on those same risk markets. It's all about the ebb and flow of money, baby.

那麼，如果減半不是最重要的，那什麼才是呢？流動性。當央行擴大資產負債表時，額外的現金可以流入比特幣等風險資產。相反，緊縮貨幣政策會吸走流動性，給這些風險市場帶來壓力。這都是關於金錢的潮起潮落，寶貝。

Brandt's Crossroads: A New Era or the Same Old Song?

布蘭特的十字路口：新時代還是老歌？

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin doesn't hit its cycle top soon, we could be entering a new phase of price discovery. Brandt highlights Bitcoin's historical four-year rhythm, where the distance between a market bottom and the next halving mirrors the distance from that halving to the cycle peak. But, he also acknowledges that if Bitcoin breaks free from its historic rhythm, it could mark the beginning of a new, longer cycle – one that takes the market well beyond its previous boundaries.

資深交易員彼得·勃蘭特認為，比特幣正處於關鍵時刻。如果比特幣沒有很快達到週期頂部，我們可能會進入價格發現的新階段。布蘭特強調了比特幣歷史上的四年節奏，其中市場底部和下一次減半之間的距離反映了從減半到週期峰值的距離。但是，他也承認，如果比特幣擺脫其歷史節奏，它可能標誌著一個新的、更長的周期的開始——這個週期將使市場遠遠超出之前的界限。

Beyond the Calendar: Adaptive Risk Management

超越日曆：適應性風險管理

Instead of blindly following calendar dates, investors should combine on-chain supply metrics with macro indicators, derivatives positioning, and institutional flow data. Think of it as a holistic approach. Scaled entries, active hedging – these are your friends in navigating the Bitcoin seas.

投資者不應盲目遵循日曆日期，而應將鏈上供應指標與宏觀指標、衍生品頭寸和機構流量數據結合起來。將其視為一種整體方法。規模化入場、主動對沖——這些是您在比特幣海洋中航行的朋友。

Player vs Player: Market as an Arena

玩家與玩家：市場作為競技場

There's another perspective on the bitcoin market, that the essence of trading is a zero-sum game. Either you lose or I gain. Meme trading ecosystems embody the PvP principle in its purest and most unvarnished form. Unlike assets that claim to possess underlying utility or cash flow, the value of memes derives almost entirely from their cultural relevance, community hype, and virality on social media—in other words, attention itself. Trading in such a market becomes more like cultural arbitrage.

對於比特幣市場還有另一種觀點，認為交易的本質是零和遊戲。要么你輸，要么我贏。 Meme 交易生態系統以最純粹、最樸實的形式體現了 PvP 原則。與聲稱擁有潛在效用或現金流的資產不同，模因的價值幾乎完全源自其文化相關性、社區炒作和社交媒體上的病毒式傳播——換句話說，就是注意力本身。在這樣的市場中進行交易變得更像是文化套利。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最後的想法：係好安全帶！

Whether the four-year cycle is dead or just taking a nap, one thing's for sure: Bitcoin's price is still heavily influenced by monetary policy and liquidity flows. So, keep an eye on those central bank announcements, brush up on your macroeconomics, and maybe, just maybe, you'll be able to predict the next big move. Or, you know, just HODL and enjoy the ride. After all, in the world of Bitcoin, anything can happen!

無論四年周期是結束還是只是小睡，有一點是肯定的：比特幣的價格仍然受到貨幣政策和流動性流動的嚴重影響。因此，密切關注央行的公告，溫習宏觀經濟學，也許，只是也許，您將能夠預測下一個重大舉措。或者，你知道，只是持有並享受這段旅程。畢竟，在比特幣的世界裡，任何事情都有可能發生！