乘坐比特币过山车：减半、市场动态以及下一步发展

经典的比特币周期已经死了吗？我们深入探讨减半事件、市场流动性以及塑造比特币未来的力量。

Riding the Bitcoin Rollercoaster: Halving, Market Dynamics, and What's Next

乘坐比特币过山车：减半、市场动态以及下一步发展

The Bitcoin market is never boring, especially when you factor in the halving events, overall market dynamics, and constant speculation about its future. Is the four-year cycle a thing of the past? Let's break it down.

比特币市场永远不会无聊，尤其是当你考虑到减半事件、整体市场动态以及对其未来的不断猜测时。四年周期已经成为过去了吗？让我们来分解一下。

The Halving and Its Historical Hype

减半及其历史炒作

Ah, the halving. That magical moment when Bitcoin's block reward gets sliced in half, theoretically reducing supply and driving up the price. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and historically, these events have coincided with major market cycles. However, the actual price impact? Well, that's been a bit all over the place.

啊，减半。比特币的区块奖励被切成两半的神奇时刻，理论上减少了供应并推高了价格。最近一次减半发生在 2024 年 4 月，从历史上看，这些事件与主要市场周期同时发生。然而，实际价格影响如何？好吧，这有点到处都是。

Hayes's Hot Take: Monetary Policy is King

海斯的热门观点：货币政策为王

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, throws a wrench in the works. He argues that Bitcoin's past cycles were driven more by monetary tightening and easing than by the halving itself. According to Hayes, the real drivers are the supply and quantity of major global currencies like the US dollar and Chinese yuan. When central banks pump liquidity into the market, Bitcoin parties. When they tighten the screws, Bitcoin feels the squeeze. Makes sense, right?

BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 阻碍了这项工作。他认为，比特币过去的周期更多地是由货币紧缩和宽松所驱动，而不是减半本身。海耶斯认为，真正的驱动因素是美元和人民币等全球主要货币的供应和数量。当央行向市场注入流动性时，比特币就会参与。当他们拧紧螺丝时，比特币就会感受​​到挤压。有道理，对吧？

Liquidity: The Unsung Hero?

流动性：无名英雄？

So, if halvings aren't the be-all and end-all, what is? Liquidity. When central banks expand their balance sheets, that extra cash can flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, tightening monetary policy sucks liquidity out, putting pressure on those same risk markets. It's all about the ebb and flow of money, baby.

那么，如果减半不是最重要的，那什么才是呢？流动性。当央行扩大资产负债表时，额外的现金可以流入比特币等风险资产。相反，紧缩货币政策会吸走流动性，给这些风险市场带来压力。这都是关于金钱的潮起潮落，宝贝。

Brandt's Crossroads: A New Era or the Same Old Song?

布兰特的十字路口：新时代还是老歌？

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin doesn't hit its cycle top soon, we could be entering a new phase of price discovery. Brandt highlights Bitcoin's historical four-year rhythm, where the distance between a market bottom and the next halving mirrors the distance from that halving to the cycle peak. But, he also acknowledges that if Bitcoin breaks free from its historic rhythm, it could mark the beginning of a new, longer cycle – one that takes the market well beyond its previous boundaries.

资深交易员彼得·勃兰特认为，比特币正处于关键时刻。如果比特币没有很快达到周期顶部，我们可能会进入价格发现的新阶段。布兰特强调了比特币历史上的四年节奏，其中市场底部和下一次减半之间的距离反映了从减半到周期峰值的距离。但是，他也承认，如果比特币摆脱其历史节奏，它可能标志着一个新的、更长的周期的开始——这个周期将使市场远远超出之前的界限。

Beyond the Calendar: Adaptive Risk Management

超越日历：适应性风险管理

Instead of blindly following calendar dates, investors should combine on-chain supply metrics with macro indicators, derivatives positioning, and institutional flow data. Think of it as a holistic approach. Scaled entries, active hedging – these are your friends in navigating the Bitcoin seas.

投资者不应盲目遵循日历日期，而应将链上供应指标与宏观指标、衍生品头寸和机构流量数据结合起来。将其视为一种整体方法。规模化入场、主动对冲——这些是您在比特币海洋中航行的朋友。

Player vs Player: Market as an Arena

玩家与玩家：市场作为竞技场

There's another perspective on the bitcoin market, that the essence of trading is a zero-sum game. Either you lose or I gain. Meme trading ecosystems embody the PvP principle in its purest and most unvarnished form. Unlike assets that claim to possess underlying utility or cash flow, the value of memes derives almost entirely from their cultural relevance, community hype, and virality on social media—in other words, attention itself. Trading in such a market becomes more like cultural arbitrage.

对于比特币市场还有另一种观点，认为交易的本质是零和游戏。要么你输，要么我赢。 Meme 交易生态系统以最纯粹、最朴实的形式体现了 PvP 原则。与声称拥有潜在效用或现金流的资产不同，模因的价值几乎完全源自其文化相关性、社区炒作和社交媒体上的病毒式传播——换句话说，就是注意力本身。在这样的市场中进行交易变得更像是文化套利。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最后的想法：系好安全带！

Whether the four-year cycle is dead or just taking a nap, one thing's for sure: Bitcoin's price is still heavily influenced by monetary policy and liquidity flows. So, keep an eye on those central bank announcements, brush up on your macroeconomics, and maybe, just maybe, you'll be able to predict the next big move. Or, you know, just HODL and enjoy the ride. After all, in the world of Bitcoin, anything can happen!

无论四年周期是结束还是只是小睡，有一点是肯定的：比特币的价格仍然受到货币政策和流动性流动的严重影响。因此，密切关注央行的公告，温习宏观经济学，也许，只是也许，您将能够预测下一个重大举措。或者，你知道，只是持有并享受这段旅程。毕竟，在比特币的世界里，任何事情都有可能发生！