著名圖表分析師警告比特幣潛在的看漲軌跡轉變

資深圖表分析師 Peter Brandt 對比特幣的看漲軌跡表示擔憂，暗示其可能已經見頂。他分析了比特幣的歷史牛市週期，並觀察到每次減半事件後價格都會下跌 80% 的模式。儘管此前預計牛市週期會持續到 2025 年 9 月，但 Brandt 現在認為這種情況的機率為 25%，理由是比特幣較 2024 年 3 月達到的歷史高點 73,835 美元最近下跌了 25%。

Veteran Chart Analyst Peter Brandt Raises Concerns About Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory

資深圖表分析師 Peter Brandt 對比特幣的看漲軌跡表示擔憂

New York, April 29, 2024 - Peter Brandt, a renowned chart analyst and CEO of Factor LLC, has expressed reservations about the sustainability of Bitcoin's bullish run in a recent report. Brandt suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may have reached a turning point in its upward trend.

紐約，2024 年 4 月 29 日 - 著名圖表分析師兼 Factor LLC 首席執行官 Peter Brandt 在最近的一份報告中對比特幣看漲走勢的可持續性表示保留。布蘭特表示，領先的加密貨幣可能已經達到了上升趨勢的轉捩點。

According to Brandt's analysis, Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of bull and bear markets, often coinciding with halving events. Since the initial bull cycle, Brandt notes, there have been three major bull market cycles, each witnessing a decline in price growth compared to its predecessor.

根據布蘭特的分析，比特幣歷史上遵循四年的牛市和熊市週期，通常與減半事件同時發生。布蘭特指出，自最初的牛市週期以來，已經出現了三個主要的牛市週期，每個週期的價格漲幅都比前一個週期下降。

"If the historical pattern of 80% declines holds true, the previous all-time high of $73,835 for Bitcoin on March 14, 2024 has already met the price level consistent with the exponential decline," Brandt pointed out.

Brandt 指出：“如果 80% 跌幅的歷史模式成立，那麼 2024 年 3 月 14 日比特幣的歷史高點 73,835 美元已經達到了與指數跌幅一致的價格水平。”

This recent prediction contradicts Brandt's earlier forecast in February, which suggested that Bitcoin's bullish cycle could continue until September 2025, with prices potentially reaching $200,000. However, Brandt acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding his analysis, assigning a 25% probability to it.

最近的這一預測與 Brandt 在 2 月的早期預測相矛盾，該預測表明比特幣的看漲週期可能會持續到 2025 年 9 月，價格可能達到 20 萬美元。然而，Brandt 承認他的分析存在不確定性，並給出了 25% 的機率。

"I give more credence to a report I published in February," Brandt stated, referring to a chart that projected a bull market until September/October 2025.

布蘭特表示：「我更相信我在 2 月發布的一份報告。」他指的是一張預測牛市持續到 2025 年 9 月/10 月的圖表。

In February, Brandt had significantly raised his price target for Bitcoin in 2025, from $120,000 to $200,000. This adjustment came after Bitcoin broke a significant resistance level on February 27.

今年 2 月，布蘭特大幅上調了 2025 年比特幣的目標價，從 12 萬美元上調至 20 萬美元。這項調整是在比特幣於 2 月 27 日突破重要阻力位之後進行的。

At the time, Bitcoin experienced a surge in value, breaching the $57,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. In March, Bitcoin entered a particularly strong bull run, setting a new all-time high price of $73,737.94 on March 14. The current price represents a decline of 15.51% from Bitcoin's peak.

當時，比特幣經歷了價值飆升，自 2021 年 11 月以來首次突破 57,000 美元大關。比特幣高峰下跌了15.51%。

As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin stood at $62,898.70, marking a 1.0% decrease over the previous 24 hours.

截至發稿，比特幣價格為 62,898.70 美元，較前 24 小時下跌 1.0%。

Despite the concerns raised by Brandt, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They emphasize the growing adoption of cryptocurrency, institutional investment, and the increasing use of Bitcoin for payments and remittances.

儘管布蘭特提出了擔憂，但一些分析師仍然對比特幣的長期前景感到樂觀。他們強調加密貨幣、機構投資的日益普及，以及比特幣用於支付和匯款的日益增加。

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should exercise caution when making investment decisions. While historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they do not guarantee future performance.

但要注意的是，加密貨幣市場波動較大，投資人在做出投資決策時應謹慎行事。雖然歷史模式可以提供有價值的見解，但它們並不能保證未來的表現。