著名图表分析师警告比特币潜在的看涨轨迹转变

资深图表分析师 Peter Brandt 对比特币的看涨轨迹表示担忧，暗示其可能已经见顶。他分析了比特币的历史牛市周期，并观察到每次减半事件后价格都会下跌 80% 的模式。尽管此前预计牛市周期会持续到 2025 年 9 月，但 Brandt 现在认为这种情况的概率为 25%，理由是比特币较 2024 年 3 月达到的历史高点 73,835 美元最近下跌了 25%。

Veteran Chart Analyst Peter Brandt Raises Concerns About Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory

资深图表分析师 Peter Brandt 对比特币的看涨轨迹表示担忧

New York, April 29, 2024 - Peter Brandt, a renowned chart analyst and CEO of Factor LLC, has expressed reservations about the sustainability of Bitcoin's bullish run in a recent report. Brandt suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may have reached a turning point in its upward trend.

纽约，2024 年 4 月 29 日 - 著名图表分析师兼 Factor LLC 首席执行官 Peter Brandt 在最近的一份报告中对比特币看涨走势的可持续性表示保留。布兰特表示，领先的加密货币可能已经达到了上升趋势的转折点。

According to Brandt's analysis, Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle of bull and bear markets, often coinciding with halving events. Since the initial bull cycle, Brandt notes, there have been three major bull market cycles, each witnessing a decline in price growth compared to its predecessor.

根据布兰特的分析，比特币历史上遵循四年的牛市和熊市周期，通常与减半事件同时发生。布兰特指出，自最初的牛市周期以来，已经出现了三个主要的牛市周期，每个周期的价格涨幅均较前一个周期有所下降。

"If the historical pattern of 80% declines holds true, the previous all-time high of $73,835 for Bitcoin on March 14, 2024 has already met the price level consistent with the exponential decline," Brandt pointed out.

Brandt 指出：“如果 80% 跌幅的历史模式成立，那么 2024 年 3 月 14 日比特币的历史高点 73,835 美元已经达到了与指数跌幅一致的价格水平。”

This recent prediction contradicts Brandt's earlier forecast in February, which suggested that Bitcoin's bullish cycle could continue until September 2025, with prices potentially reaching $200,000. However, Brandt acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding his analysis, assigning a 25% probability to it.

最近的这一预测与 Brandt 在 2 月份的早期预测相矛盾，该预测表明比特币的看涨周期可能会持续到 2025 年 9 月，价格可能达到 20 万美元。然而，Brandt 承认他的分析存在不确定性，并给出了 25% 的概率。

"I give more credence to a report I published in February," Brandt stated, referring to a chart that projected a bull market until September/October 2025.

布兰特表示：“我更加相信我在 2 月份发布的一份报告。”他指的是一张预测牛市持续到 2025 年 9 月/10 月的图表。

In February, Brandt had significantly raised his price target for Bitcoin in 2025, from $120,000 to $200,000. This adjustment came after Bitcoin broke a significant resistance level on February 27.

今年 2 月，布兰特大幅上调了 2025 年比特币的价格目标，从 12 万美元上调至 20 万美元。此次调整是在比特币于 2 月 27 日突破重要阻力位之后进行的。

At the time, Bitcoin experienced a surge in value, breaching the $57,000 mark for the first time since November 2021. In March, Bitcoin entered a particularly strong bull run, setting a new all-time high price of $73,737.94 on March 14. The current price represents a decline of 15.51% from Bitcoin's peak.

当时，比特币经历了价值飙升，自 2021 年 11 月以来首次突破 57,000 美元大关。3 月份，比特币进入了特别强劲的牛市，并于 3 月 14 日创下了 73,737.94 美元的历史新高。价格较比特币峰值下跌了 15.51%。

As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin stood at $62,898.70, marking a 1.0% decrease over the previous 24 hours.

截至发稿，比特币价格为 62,898.70 美元，较前 24 小时下跌 1.0%。

Despite the concerns raised by Brandt, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They emphasize the growing adoption of cryptocurrency, institutional investment, and the increasing use of Bitcoin for payments and remittances.

尽管布兰特提出了担忧，但一些分析师仍然对比特币的长期前景持乐观态度。他们强调加密货币、机构投资的日益普及，以及比特币用于支付和汇款的日益增多。

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should exercise caution when making investment decisions. While historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they do not guarantee future performance.

但需要注意的是，加密货币市场波动较大，投资者在做出投资决策时应谨慎行事。虽然历史模式可以提供有价值的见解，但它们并不能保证未来的表现。