美國證券交易委員會重新評估現貨以太 ETF 的立場，分析師調整賠率

據彭博社 ETF 分析師稱，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 可能正在重新考慮其對現貨以太幣 (ETH) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的立場。在收到監管機構內部討論的資訊後，分析師將批准的可能性從 25% 提高到 75%。這種觀點的改變是基於最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件、公開聲明和內部報告，這表明該委員會可能傾向於批准，因為民主黨面臨政治壓力，要求他們改變加密貨幣政策。

Shifting Sands: SEC Reconsiders Stance on Spot Ether ETFs

流沙：SEC 重新考慮對現貨以太 ETF 的立場

On Monday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) presented indications of a potential reassessment of its position on spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This development, revealed by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, has raised optimism within the crypto industry and spurred a reevaluation of the odds of approval.

週一，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）表示可能會重新評估其對現貨以太幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的部位。彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 透露的這項進展引發了加密貨幣產業的樂觀情緒，並促使人們重新評估獲得批准的可能性。

Analysts Adjust Predictions

分析師調整預測

Seyffart and Balchunas published an update on their website, X, highlighting a notable change in their assessment of the SEC's decision on spot Ether ETFs. "The SEC might be doing a 180 on their expected denial of spot Ether exchange-traded funds this week," wrote Balchunas. This shift stems from various factors, including recent SEC filings, public statements from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and internal discussions within the commission suggesting a softening stance under political pressure from Democrats to embrace cryptocurrencies.

Seyffart 和 Balchunas 在其網站 X 上發布了更新，強調了他們對 SEC 對現貨以太 ETF 決定的評估發生了顯著變化。 Balchunas 寫道：“美國證券交易委員會可能會對其本週拒絕現貨以太幣交易所交易基金的行為做出 180 度大轉彎。”這種轉變源於多種因素，包括最近向 SEC 提交的文件、SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 的公開聲明，以及委員會內部的討論，這些討論表明在民主黨接受加密貨幣的政治壓力下立場軟化。

Seyffart echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the increasingly politicized nature of the issue. He hinted at a potential surge in related filings in the coming days if their sources prove accurate. The potential ramifications within the cryptocurrency community were not lost on Seyffart: "Never gonna hear the end of this from the [Ether] people in my replies if this turns out to be true."

塞法特回應了這些觀點，強調這個問題日益政治化。他暗示，如果相關文件的來源被證明是準確的，未來幾天相關文件可能會激增。 Seyffart 並沒有忽視加密貨幣社區內的潛在影響：“如果事實證明這是真的，我永遠不會在我的回復中從[以太]人那裡聽到這件事的結局。”

Upcoming Deadlines and Broad Implications

即將到來的最後期限和廣泛的影響

The SEC faces an impending deadline of May 23rd to issue a decision on VanEck's spot Ether ETF. This ruling is particularly significant as VanEck's application is just the first in a series of pending spot Ether ETF proposals, with others hailing from ARK 21Shares, Hashdex, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity. The SEC has already exhausted its allotted time under regulatory guidelines to delay VanEck's application, setting the stage for a potentially groundbreaking ruling.

SEC 面臨即將到來的 5 月 23 日最後期限，對 VanEck 的現貨以太 ETF 做出決定。這項裁決尤其重要，因為 VanEck 的申請只是一系列待決現貨以太 ETF 提案中的第一個，其他提案來自 ARK 21Shares、Hashdex、Invesco Galaxy、BlackRock 和 Fidelity。美國證券交易委員會已經用盡了監管指導方針規定的推遲 VanEck 申請的時間，為可能的突破性裁決奠定了基礎。

In an April interview, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expressed skepticism about the SEC's approval of his company's ETF application in May. This skepticism appeared justified when Grayscale withdrew its application for an Ether futures ETF on May 7th, followed by CEO Michael Sonnenshein's resignation announcement on May 20th.

VanEck 執行長 Jan van Eck 在 4 月的一次採訪中對 SEC 5 月批准其公司 ETF 申請表示懷疑。當 Grayscale 於 5 月 7 日撤回其以太坊期貨 ETF 申請，隨後執行長 Michael Sonnenshein 於 5 月 20 日宣布辭職時，這種懷疑似乎是有道理的。

Political and Regulatory Dynamics

政治和監管動態

The evolving political landscape has also injected itself into the SEC's deliberations. U.S. lawmakers in both the House of Representatives and Senate recently voted to overturn an SEC rule that hindered banks from interacting with companies holding digital assets. The fate of this congressional resolution remains uncertain, pending President Joe Biden's decision to either veto or sign it into law.

不斷變化的政治格局也融入了 SEC 的審議中。美國眾議院和參議院的立法者最近投票推翻了 SEC 的一項規定，該規定阻礙銀行與持有數位資產的公司互動。這項國會決議的命運仍不確定，有待總統拜登決定否決或簽署成為法律。

Furthermore, the SEC's request to exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings has fueled speculation of a shift towards approving spot Ether ETF applications. While approval of 19b-4 filings would be a significant step, it should be noted that the ETFs would still require clearance of their S-1 applications before trading could commence, a process with no defined timeline.

此外，SEC 要求交易所更新 19b-4 備案文件，引發了人們對以太坊現貨 ETF 申請轉向批准的猜測。雖然 19b-4 申請的批准將是重要的一步，但應該指出的是，ETF 仍需要在交易開始之前獲得其 S-1 申請的批准，而這一過程沒有明確的時間表。

Industry Reactions and Future Prospects

產業反應與未來展望

An unnamed company engaged in discussions with the SEC reported a more positive outlook, suggesting that the regulatory body was no longer stalling. This optimism is further bolstered by the reassessment from Seyffart and Balchunas, who increased their approval odds based on fresh information and insights from trusted sources.

一家與美國證券交易委員會進行討論的未具名公司報告了更積極的前景，表明監管機構不再拖延。 Seyffart 和 Balchunas 的重新評估進一步增強了這種樂觀情緒，他們根據來自可信來源的新資訊和見解提高了支持率。

However, the SEC's investigation into whether Ether qualifies as a security continues to complicate matters. This inquiry, initiated after Ethereum's transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, could influence the SEC's ultimate decision. A recent development from Prometheum, which launched an Ether custody service with plans to expand into other digital assets deemed securities, may further shape the SEC's perspective.

然而，美國證券交易委員會對以太幣是否符合證券資格的調查繼續使事情變得複雜。這項調查是在以太坊從工作量證明共識機制轉變為權益證明共識機制後發起的，可能會影響 SEC 的最終決定。 Prometheum 最近的一項進展可能會進一步影響 SEC 的觀點，該公司推出了以太坊託管服務，並計劃擴展到其他被視為證券的數位資產。