美国证券交易委员会重新评估现货以太 ETF 的立场，分析师调整赔率

据彭博社 ETF 分析师称，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 可能正在重新考虑其对现货以太币 (ETH) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的立场。在收到监管机构内部讨论的信息后，分析师将批准的可能性从 25% 提高到 75%。这种观点的改变是基于最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、公开声明和内部报告，这表明该委员会可能会倾向于批准，因为民主党面临政治压力，要求他们改变加密货币政策。

Shifting Sands: SEC Reconsiders Stance on Spot Ether ETFs

流沙：SEC 重新考虑对现货以太 ETF 的立场

On Monday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) presented indications of a potential reassessment of its position on spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This development, revealed by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, has raised optimism within the crypto industry and spurred a reevaluation of the odds of approval.

周一，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）表示可能会重新评估其对现货以太币交易所交易基金（ETF）的仓位。彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 透露的这一进展引发了加密货币行业的乐观情绪，并促使人们重新评估获得批准的可能性。

Analysts Adjust Predictions

分析师调整预测

Seyffart and Balchunas published an update on their website, X, highlighting a notable change in their assessment of the SEC's decision on spot Ether ETFs. "The SEC might be doing a 180 on their expected denial of spot Ether exchange-traded funds this week," wrote Balchunas. This shift stems from various factors, including recent SEC filings, public statements from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and internal discussions within the commission suggesting a softening stance under political pressure from Democrats to embrace cryptocurrencies.

Seyffart 和 Balchunas 在其网站 X 上发布了更新，强调了他们对 SEC 对现货以太 ETF 决定的评估发生了显着变化。 Balchunas 写道：“美国证券交易委员会可能会对其本周拒绝现货以太币交易所交易基金的行为做出 180 度大转弯。”这种转变源于多种因素，包括最近向 SEC 提交的文件、SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 的公开声明，以及委员会内部的讨论，这些讨论表明在民主党接受加密货币的政治压力下立场软化。

Seyffart echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the increasingly politicized nature of the issue. He hinted at a potential surge in related filings in the coming days if their sources prove accurate. The potential ramifications within the cryptocurrency community were not lost on Seyffart: "Never gonna hear the end of this from the [Ether] people in my replies if this turns out to be true."

塞法特回应了这些观点，强调这个问题日益政治化。他暗示，如果相关文件的来源被证明是准确的，未来几天相关文件可能会激增。 Seyffart 并没有忽视加密货币社区内的潜在影响：“如果事实证明这是真的，我永远不会在我的回复中从[以太]人那里听到这件事的结局。”

Upcoming Deadlines and Broad Implications

即将到来的最后期限和广泛的影响

The SEC faces an impending deadline of May 23rd to issue a decision on VanEck's spot Ether ETF. This ruling is particularly significant as VanEck's application is just the first in a series of pending spot Ether ETF proposals, with others hailing from ARK 21Shares, Hashdex, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity. The SEC has already exhausted its allotted time under regulatory guidelines to delay VanEck's application, setting the stage for a potentially groundbreaking ruling.

SEC 面临即将到来的 5 月 23 日最后期限，对 VanEck 的现货以太 ETF 做出决定。这项裁决尤为重要，因为 VanEck 的申请只是一系列待决现货以太 ETF 提案中的第一个，其他提案来自 ARK 21Shares、Hashdex、Invesco Galaxy、BlackRock 和 Fidelity。美国证券交易委员会已经用尽了监管指导方针规定的推迟 VanEck 申请的时间，为可能的突破性裁决奠定了基础。

In an April interview, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expressed skepticism about the SEC's approval of his company's ETF application in May. This skepticism appeared justified when Grayscale withdrew its application for an Ether futures ETF on May 7th, followed by CEO Michael Sonnenshein's resignation announcement on May 20th.

VanEck 首席执行官 Jan van Eck 在 4 月份的一次采访中对 SEC 5 月份批准其公司 ETF 申请表示怀疑。当 Grayscale 于 5 月 7 日撤回其以太坊期货 ETF 申请，随后首席执行官 Michael Sonnenshein 于 5 月 20 日宣布辞职时，这种怀疑似乎是有道理的。

Political and Regulatory Dynamics

政治和监管动态

The evolving political landscape has also injected itself into the SEC's deliberations. U.S. lawmakers in both the House of Representatives and Senate recently voted to overturn an SEC rule that hindered banks from interacting with companies holding digital assets. The fate of this congressional resolution remains uncertain, pending President Joe Biden's decision to either veto or sign it into law.

不断变化的政治格局也融入了 SEC 的审议之中。美国众议院和参议院的立法者最近投票推翻了 SEC 的一项规定，该规定阻碍银行与持有数字资产的公司进行互动。这项国会决议的命运仍不确定，有待总统乔·拜登决定否决或签署成为法律。

Furthermore, the SEC's request to exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings has fueled speculation of a shift towards approving spot Ether ETF applications. While approval of 19b-4 filings would be a significant step, it should be noted that the ETFs would still require clearance of their S-1 applications before trading could commence, a process with no defined timeline.

此外，SEC 要求交易所更新其 19b-4 备案文件，引发了人们对以太坊现货 ETF 申请转向批准的猜测。虽然 19b-4 申请的批准将是重要的一步，但应该指出的是，ETF 仍需要在交易开始之前获得其 S-1 申请的批准，这一过程没有明确的时间表。

Industry Reactions and Future Prospects

行业反应和未来展望

An unnamed company engaged in discussions with the SEC reported a more positive outlook, suggesting that the regulatory body was no longer stalling. This optimism is further bolstered by the reassessment from Seyffart and Balchunas, who increased their approval odds based on fresh information and insights from trusted sources.

一家与美国证券交易委员会进行讨论的未具名公司报告了更为积极的前景，表明监管机构不再拖延。 Seyffart 和 Balchunas 的重新评估进一步增强了这种乐观情绪，他们根据来自可信来源的新信息和见解提高了支持率。

However, the SEC's investigation into whether Ether qualifies as a security continues to complicate matters. This inquiry, initiated after Ethereum's transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, could influence the SEC's ultimate decision. A recent development from Prometheum, which launched an Ether custody service with plans to expand into other digital assets deemed securities, may further shape the SEC's perspective.

然而，美国证券交易委员会对以太币是否符合证券资格的调查继续使事情变得复杂化。这项调查是在以太坊从工作量证明共识机制转变为权益证明共识机制后发起的，可能会影响 SEC 的最终决定。 Prometheum 最近的一项进展可能会进一步影响 SEC 的观点，该公司推出了以太坊托管服务，并计划扩展到其他被视为证券的数字资产。