前景與價格：深入探討加密貨幣播放器的開發

本文將體育選秀和加密貨幣前景進行比較，探討了開發者活動作為未來協議成長和價值累積指標的重要性。儘管最近進入加密貨幣領域的新開發人員數量有所減少，但某些生態系統（例如Osmosis、Optimism 和Starknet）卻表現出了令人印象深刻的開發人員增長，這與開發人員的智力資本分配可能導致價值增值和價格升值的論點一致。作者建議使用開發者指標作為評估加密貨幣前景的起點，並認識到其他因素也可能影響成功。

Unveiling Prospective Cryptocurrencies: A Deep Dive into Protocol Development and Price Correlation

揭示潛在的加密貨幣：深入探討協議開發和價格相關性

Amidst the recent buzz surrounding the Major League Baseball draft, a parallel drawn between the evaluation of baseball prospects and emerging cryptocurrencies sparked an intriguing line of inquiry. The premise being that just as teams select players based on projected future performance, cryptocurrency enthusiasts seek to identify promising digital assets that hold potential for significant gains.

在最近圍繞美國職棒大聯盟選秀的熱議中，對棒球前景的評估與新興加密貨幣之間的相似之處引發了一系列有趣的調查。前提是，正如球隊根據預計的未來表現來選擇球員一樣，加密貨幣愛好者也尋求識別具有顯著收益潛力的有前途的數位資產。

However, assessing the prospects of a cryptocurrency is a complex endeavor, requiring a multifaceted approach that considers numerous factors. Among these, developer activity stands out as a critical indicator of protocol growth and a potential precursor to value accrual and price appreciation.

然而，評估加密貨幣的前景是一項複雜的工作，需要考慮多種因素的多方面方法。其中，開發者活動是協議成長的關鍵指標，也是價值增值和價格升值的潛在先兆。

Electric Capital's comprehensive developer report provides a wealth of data on developer activity across the cryptocurrency ecosystem. By analyzing this data, we can gain insights into the health and trajectory of various crypto projects.

Electric Capital 的綜合開發者報告提供了整個加密貨幣生態系統中開發者活動的大量數據。透過分析這些數據，我們可以深入了解各種加密項目的健康狀況和軌跡。

A Decline in New Developers Casts a Shadow

新開發者的減少蒙上了陰影

The report reveals a concerning trend: the number of new developers entering the cryptocurrency space has declined by 18% since January, outpacing the overall decline in active developers. This suggests that the challenges facing the industry in the recent year have had a particularly negative impact on newcomers.

該報告揭示了一個令人擔憂的趨勢：自 1 月以來，進入加密貨幣領域的新開發者數量下降了 18%，超過了活躍開發者的整體降幅。這表明該行業近年來面臨的挑戰對新來者產生了特別負面的影響。

However, a wider perspective offers a more positive picture, with the number of developers increasing by 26% over the past two years and 92% over the past three years. This indicates that while the industry is facing headwinds, long-term growth remains a possibility.

然而，從更廣闊的角度來看，情況更加積極，開發商數量在過去兩年增加了 26%，在過去三年增加了 92%。這表明，儘管該行業面臨逆風，但長期成長仍有可能。

A Divergence in Price and Development Activity

價格和開發活動的分歧

Initially, it was assumed that a surge in development activity would lead to price gains for the associated cryptocurrency. However, the report suggests that the relationship may be more complex. While Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited significant price appreciation amid a decline in development activity, smaller, less established protocols have demonstrated an inverse correlation.

最初，人們認為開發活動的激增將導致相關加密貨幣的價格上漲。然而，報告表明，這種關係可能更為複雜。雖然比特幣 (BTC) 在開發活動減少的情況下價格大幅上漲，但規模較小、較不成熟的協議卻表現出負相關性。

This divergence highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the cryptocurrency market, which is still in its nascent stages of evolution.

這種分歧凸顯了對仍處於發展初期階段的加密貨幣市場有細緻入微了解的必要性。

Identifying Promising Protocols: A Focus on Developer Growth

識別有前途的協議：關注開發者成長

Despite the challenges, the report highlights three ecosystems that have exhibited exceptional developer growth over the past year: Osmosis (OSMO), Optimism (OP), and Starknet.

儘管面臨挑戰，該報告還是強調了三個生態系統在過去一年中表現出出色的開發人員成長：Osmosis (OSMO)、Optimism (OP) 和 Starknet。

Osmosis (OSMO)

滲透（OSMO）

Osmosis, an interchain decentralized exchange, has experienced a remarkable 56% growth in total developers over the past year, as well as a 26% increase in monthly activity between May and June. However, the price of its native token OSMO has not kept pace, declining by 27% in 2023 and 36% over the most recent 90 days. This divergence could present an opportunity for investors seeking to invest in a protocol with a strong development foundation.

Osmosis 是一個鏈間去中心化交易所，在過去的一年裡，開發人員總數顯著增長了 56%，5 月至 6 月期間的月度活動增長了 26%。然而，其原生代幣 OSMO 的價格卻沒有跟上，2023 年下降了 27%，最近 90 天下降了 36%。這種差異可能為尋求投資具有強大開發基礎的協議的投資者提供機會。

Optimism (OP)

樂觀（OP）

Optimism, a layer-2 blockchain, has also demonstrated robust growth, with 27% growth in developers over the past year and 127% growth in the price of its governance token OP. While OP's price has recently weakened, it remains an attractive investment for those bullish on the long-term prospects of layer-2 solutions.

二層區塊鏈 Optimism 也表現出了強勁的成長，過去一年開發者數量成長了 27%，其治理代幣 OP 的價格成長了 127%。儘管 OP 的價格最近有所走軟，但對於那些看好 Layer-2 解決方案長期前景的人來說，它仍然是一項有吸引力的投資。

Starknet

斯塔克網

Starknet, another layer-2 network, has experienced a 590% growth in developers over the past two years, although its token is not currently available for sale. The influx of new developers working on the protocol warrants attention, signaling its potential for future growth.

Starknet 是另一個第 2 層網絡，儘管其代幣目前尚未出售，但過去兩年開發人員數量增加了 590%。研究該協議的新開發人員的湧入值得關注，這表明其未來成長的潛力。

Key Takeaways

重點

While developer activity is not the sole indicator of a cryptocurrency's prospects, it serves as a valuable starting point for identifying potential winners. As protocols continue to innovate, increase efficiency, and deliver tangible value, the number of developers working on them may foreshadow their emergence as industry veterans.

雖然開發者活動並不是加密貨幣前景的唯一指標，但它可以作為識別潛在贏家的寶貴起點。隨著協議不斷創新、提高效率並提供有形價值，從事這些協議的開發人員數量可能預示著它們將成為行業資深人士。

Additional Notable Developments

其他值得注意的進展

Beyond the analysis of developer activity, several other developments in the cryptocurrency space deserve attention:

除了對開發人員活動的分析之外，加密貨幣領域的其他一些發展也值得關注：

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Application

貝萊德的比特幣 ETF 申請

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has applied to list a bitcoin ETF. This move signifies a significant shift in the firm's stance on cryptocurrencies, which CEO Larry Fink was initially skeptical about.

全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德已申請上市比特幣 ETF。此舉標誌著該公司對加密貨幣立場的重大轉變，執行長拉里·芬克最初對此表示懷疑。

Standard Chartered's Bullish Bitcoin Forecast

渣打銀行看漲比特幣的預測

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank have issued a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting it will reach $50,000 by the end of 2023 and $120,000 by the end of 2024. While such price projections should be taken with caution, they reflect growing optimism within the industry.

渣打銀行分析師對比特幣做出了看漲預測，預計到2023 年底比特幣價格將達到5 萬美元，到2024 年底將達到12 萬美元。日益增長的樂觀情緒。

Concerns over Privacy

對隱私的擔憂

The privacy of cryptocurrency transactions has come under scrutiny this week. A data firm, Arkham Intelligence, has developed a product designed to unmask anonymous crypto wallets, raising concerns within the crypto community. Additionally, CoinDesk has reported on the use of surveillance tools in BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin ETF.

加密貨幣交易的隱私本週受到嚴格審查。數據公司 Arkham Intelligence 開發了一款旨在揭露匿名加密錢包的產品，引起了加密社群的擔憂。此外，CoinDesk 也報告了貝萊德在比特幣現貨 ETF 申請中使用監控工具的情況。