前景和价格：深入探讨加密货币播放器的开发

本文将体育选秀和加密货币前景进行比较，探讨了开发者活动作为未来协议增长和价值累积指标的重要性。尽管最近进入加密货币领域的新开发人员数量有所减少，但某些生态系统（例如 Osmosis、Optimism 和 Starknet）却表现出了令人印象深刻的开发人员增长，这与开发人员的智力资本分配可能导致价值增值和价格升值的论点相一致。作者建议使用开发者指标作为评估加密货币前景的起点，并认识到其他因素也可能影响成功。

Unveiling Prospective Cryptocurrencies: A Deep Dive into Protocol Development and Price Correlation

揭示潜在的加密货币：深入探讨协议开发和价格相关性

Amidst the recent buzz surrounding the Major League Baseball draft, a parallel drawn between the evaluation of baseball prospects and emerging cryptocurrencies sparked an intriguing line of inquiry. The premise being that just as teams select players based on projected future performance, cryptocurrency enthusiasts seek to identify promising digital assets that hold potential for significant gains.

在最近围绕美国职业棒球大联盟选秀的热议中，对棒球前景的评估与新兴加密货币之间的相似之处引发了一系列有趣的调查。前提是，正如团队根据预计的未来表现来选择球员一样，加密货币爱好者也寻求识别具有显着收益潜力的有前途的数字资产。

However, assessing the prospects of a cryptocurrency is a complex endeavor, requiring a multifaceted approach that considers numerous factors. Among these, developer activity stands out as a critical indicator of protocol growth and a potential precursor to value accrual and price appreciation.

然而，评估加密货币的前景是一项复杂的工作，需要考虑多种因素的多方面方法。其中，开发者活动是协议增长的关键指标，也是价值增值和价格升值的潜在先兆。

Electric Capital's comprehensive developer report provides a wealth of data on developer activity across the cryptocurrency ecosystem. By analyzing this data, we can gain insights into the health and trajectory of various crypto projects.

Electric Capital 的综合开发者报告提供了有关整个加密货币生态系统中开发者活动的大量数据。通过分析这些数据，我们可以深入了解各种加密项目的健康状况和轨迹。

A Decline in New Developers Casts a Shadow

新开发者的减少蒙上了阴影

The report reveals a concerning trend: the number of new developers entering the cryptocurrency space has declined by 18% since January, outpacing the overall decline in active developers. This suggests that the challenges facing the industry in the recent year have had a particularly negative impact on newcomers.

该报告揭示了一个令人担忧的趋势：自 1 月份以来，进入加密货币领域的新开发者数量下降了 18%，超过了活跃开发者的整体降幅。这表明该行业近年来面临的挑战对新来者产生了特别负面的影响。

However, a wider perspective offers a more positive picture, with the number of developers increasing by 26% over the past two years and 92% over the past three years. This indicates that while the industry is facing headwinds, long-term growth remains a possibility.

然而，从更广阔的角度来看，情况更加积极，开发商数量在过去两年增加了 26%，在过去三年增加了 92%。这表明，尽管该行业面临逆风，但长期增长仍有可能。

A Divergence in Price and Development Activity

价格和开发活动的分歧

Initially, it was assumed that a surge in development activity would lead to price gains for the associated cryptocurrency. However, the report suggests that the relationship may be more complex. While Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited significant price appreciation amid a decline in development activity, smaller, less established protocols have demonstrated an inverse correlation.

最初，人们认为开发活动的激增将导致相关加密货币的价格上涨。然而，报告表明，这种关系可能更为复杂。虽然比特币 (BTC) 在开发活动减少的情况下价格大幅上涨，但规模较小、不太成熟的协议却表现出负相关性。

This divergence highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the cryptocurrency market, which is still in its nascent stages of evolution.

这种分歧凸显了对仍处于发展初期阶段的加密货币市场有细致入微了解的必要性。

Identifying Promising Protocols: A Focus on Developer Growth

识别有前途的协议：关注开发者成长

Despite the challenges, the report highlights three ecosystems that have exhibited exceptional developer growth over the past year: Osmosis (OSMO), Optimism (OP), and Starknet.

尽管面临挑战，该报告还是强调了三个生态系统在过去一年中表现出出色的开发人员增长：Osmosis (OSMO)、Optimism (OP) 和 Starknet。

Osmosis (OSMO)

渗透（OSMO）

Osmosis, an interchain decentralized exchange, has experienced a remarkable 56% growth in total developers over the past year, as well as a 26% increase in monthly activity between May and June. However, the price of its native token OSMO has not kept pace, declining by 27% in 2023 and 36% over the most recent 90 days. This divergence could present an opportunity for investors seeking to invest in a protocol with a strong development foundation.

Osmosis 是一个链间去中心化交易所，在过去的一年里，开发人员总数显着增长了 56%，5 月至 6 月期间的月度活动增长了 26%。然而，其原生代币 OS​​MO 的价格却没有跟上，2023 年下降了 27%，最近 90 天下降了 36%。这种差异可能为寻求投资具有强大开发基础的协议的投资者提供机会。

Optimism (OP)

乐观（OP）

Optimism, a layer-2 blockchain, has also demonstrated robust growth, with 27% growth in developers over the past year and 127% growth in the price of its governance token OP. While OP's price has recently weakened, it remains an attractive investment for those bullish on the long-term prospects of layer-2 solutions.

二层区块链 Optimism 也表现出了强劲的增长，过去一年开发商数量增长了 27%，其治理代币 OP 的价格增长了 127%。尽管 OP 的价格最近有所走软，但对于那些看好 Layer-2 解决方案长期前景的人来说，它仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。

Starknet

斯塔克网

Starknet, another layer-2 network, has experienced a 590% growth in developers over the past two years, although its token is not currently available for sale. The influx of new developers working on the protocol warrants attention, signaling its potential for future growth.

Starknet 是另一个第 2 层网络，尽管其代币目前尚未出售，但过去两年开发人员数量增长了 590%。研究该协议的新开发人员的涌入值得关注，这表明其未来增长的潜力。

Key Takeaways

要点

While developer activity is not the sole indicator of a cryptocurrency's prospects, it serves as a valuable starting point for identifying potential winners. As protocols continue to innovate, increase efficiency, and deliver tangible value, the number of developers working on them may foreshadow their emergence as industry veterans.

虽然开发者活动并不是加密货币前景的唯一指标，但它可以作为识别潜在赢家的宝贵起点。随着协议不断创新、提高效率并提供有形价值，从事这些协议的开发人员数量可能预示着它们将成为行业资深人士。

Additional Notable Developments

其他值得注意的进展

Beyond the analysis of developer activity, several other developments in the cryptocurrency space deserve attention:

除了对开发人员活动的分析之外，加密货币领域的其他一些发展也值得关注：

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Application

贝莱德的比特币 ETF 申请

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has applied to list a bitcoin ETF. This move signifies a significant shift in the firm's stance on cryptocurrencies, which CEO Larry Fink was initially skeptical about.

全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德已申请上市比特币 ETF。此举标志着该公司对加密货币立场的重大转变，首席执行官拉里·芬克最初对此表示怀疑。

Standard Chartered's Bullish Bitcoin Forecast

渣打银行看涨比特币的预测

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank have issued a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting it will reach $50,000 by the end of 2023 and $120,000 by the end of 2024. While such price projections should be taken with caution, they reflect growing optimism within the industry.

渣打银行分析师对比特币做出了看涨预测，预计到 2023 年底比特币价格将达到 5 万美元，到 2024 年底将达到 12 万美元。虽然应谨慎对待此类价格预测，但它们反映了行业内日益增长的乐观情绪。

Concerns over Privacy

对隐私的担忧

The privacy of cryptocurrency transactions has come under scrutiny this week. A data firm, Arkham Intelligence, has developed a product designed to unmask anonymous crypto wallets, raising concerns within the crypto community. Additionally, CoinDesk has reported on the use of surveillance tools in BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin ETF.

加密货币交易的隐私本周受到严格审查。数据公司 Arkham Intelligence 开发了一款旨在揭露匿名加密钱包的产品，引起了加密社区的担忧。此外，CoinDesk 还报道了贝莱德在比特币现货 ETF 申请中使用监控工具的情况。