V形恢復的承諾正在加劇，因為猜測安裝座是美聯儲將樞紐旋轉的猜測。

一般而言，加密貨幣和金融市場正在脫離新的波動和安裝地緣政治壓力。結果，猜測正在加劇

Crypto and financial markets, in general, are reeling from renewed volatility and mounting geopolitical pressure. As a result, speculation is intensifying around whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot back toward Quantitative Easing (QE).

一般而言，加密貨幣和金融市場正在脫離新的波動和安裝地緣政治壓力。結果，圍繞美聯儲（美聯儲）是否會重新探索定量寬鬆（QE）的猜測正在加劇。

A potential QE would be reminiscent of the aggressive monetary interventions of 2008 and 2020. For crypto, the implications could be enormous, with many traders bracing for a potential V-shaped recovery and a historic rally if QE is revived.

潛在的量化寬鬆會讓人聯想到2008年和2020年的侵略性貨幣干預措施。對於加密貨幣，可能會有巨大的含義，許多交易者會為潛在的V形恢復而努力，如果恢復了量化寬鬆，則有歷史性的集會。

Analysts Share Signals Why the FED Could Act

分析師分享信號為什麼美聯儲可以採取行動

Analysts have shared reasons that could prompt the Fed to intervene, with one citing the MOVE Index. This is Wall Street’s “fear gauge” for the bond market. At 137.30, the index is currently within the 130–160 range where the Fed has historically acted during crises.

分析師有共同的理由可以促使美聯儲干預，其中一項引用了這一舉動指數。這是華爾街對債券市場的“恐懼量規”。該指數在137.30處，目前在美聯儲在危機中歷史上行動的130-160範圍內。

“Now it’s at 137.30, in the 130–160 range where the Fed might step in, depending on the economy. If they don’t, they’ll still cut rates soon because they have to refinance the debt to keep the Ponzi going,” wrote Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist.

“現在是137.30，在130-160範圍內，美聯儲可能會介入，具體取決於經濟，如果不這樣做，他們仍然很快就會降低利率，因為他們必須為債務再償還債務，以保持龐氏騙局的前進，”黑汗資本家的聯合創始人Vandell寫道。

This signal aligns with other warning signs of financial instability, including global market sell-offs that set the tone for the crypto black Monday narrative. This prompted the Fed to schedule a closed-door board meeting on April 3.

該信號與金融不穩定的其他警告信號保持一致，其中包括為加密黑色星期一敘述定下基調的全球市場拋售。這促使美聯儲安排4月3日的閉門委員會會議。

According to analysts, this timing was not random, with mounting pressure likely to see the Fed cave and President Trump having his way.

根據分析師的說法，這個時機不是隨機的，越來越多的壓力可能會看到美聯儲洞穴和特朗普總統的前進。

“With the Fed hinting at QE, everything changes Risk: Reward is now in favor of the bulls. Watch for choppy price action, but do not miss the recovery rally. And remember… it’s easier to trade this market than to hold through it,” said Aaron Dishner, a crypto trader and analyst.

“隨著美聯儲提出量化寬鬆的暗示，一切都會改變風險：獎勵現在有利於公牛。關注波動的價格行動，但不要錯過恢復集會。記住……交易這個市場比堅持下去要容易。”

This suggests that investors are reading between the lines, particularly with the Fed’s next scheduled policy decision not until May 6–7. JPMorgan recently became the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession amid Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, adding urgency to the conversation.

這表明投資者在兩條線之間閱讀，尤其是在美聯儲的下一個預定政策決定之前，直到5月6日至7日。摩根大通最近成為第一家在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提議的關稅中預測美國經濟衰退的第一家銀行，這增加了對話的緊迫性。

The bank suggests the Fed may be forced to act sooner, possibly with rate cuts or even QE, before the scheduled FOMC meeting. Against this backdrop, crypto investor Eliz shared a provocative take.

該銀行建議，在預定的FOMC會議之前，美聯儲可能會被迫更快地採取行動，甚至可能會削減速度甚至QE。在這種背景下，加密投資者Eliz分享了一種挑釁的看法。

“I honestly think Trump is doing all this to speed up the Fed’s process to lower rates and QE,” they noted.

他們指出：“老實說，我認為特朗普正在做這一切，以加快美聯儲的進程，以降低利率和量化寬鬆的速度。”

That may not be far-fetched given that the Fed must also manage over $34 trillion in federal debt. Noteworthy, this becomes harder to service at higher interest rates. According to Polymarket, there is now a 92% chance the Fed will cut rates at some point in 2025.

鑑於美聯儲還必須管理超過34萬億美元的聯邦債務，這可能不會牽強。值得注意的是，這很難以更高的利率服務。根據Polymarket的說法，現在，美聯儲在2025年的某個時候有92％的機會降低費率。

Why Crypto Could Benefit From QE

為什麼加密可以從量化寬鬆中受益

Should QE materialize, history suggests crypto could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. BitMEX founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes predicted that QE could inject up to $3.24 trillion into the system, nearly 80% of the amount added during the pandemic.

如果QE實現，歷史表明加密貨幣可能是最大的受益者之一。 BITMEX創始人兼前首席執行官Arthur Hayes預測，量化寬鬆可以向系統注入3.24萬億美元，近80％的大流行量。

“Bitcoin rose 24x from its COVID-19 low thanks to $4 trillion in stimulus. If we see $3.24 trillion now, BTC could hit $1 million,” he said.

他說：“由於刺激了4萬億美元的刺激，比特幣從共同的19個低點上升了24倍。如果我們看到3.24萬億美元，BTC可能會達到100萬美元。”

This aligns with his recent prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end if the Fed shifts to QE to support markets.

這與他最近的預測相吻合，即如果美聯儲轉移到量化寬鬆以支持市場，比特幣將達到25萬美元。

Analyst Brett offered a more measured view, noting that QE typically follows rate cuts rather than precedes them.

分析師布雷特（Brett）提供了更具衡量的看法，並指出量化寬鬆通常遵循降低速率，而不是先於它們。

“We’re likely going to see rate cuts through mid-2026…like in 2008 and 2020, Powell has said QE doesn’t come until rate cuts are complete,” Brett explained.

布雷特解釋說：“我們很可能會看到2026年中期的削減稅率……就像在2008年和2020年一樣，鮑威爾（Powell）表示，直到削減速度降低為止。”

Based on this, the analyst committed to buying selectively but did not expect a V-shaped bounce unless something drastic changed.

基於此，分析師承諾有選擇地購買，但除非發生了巨大變化，否則沒想到V形彈跳。

That “something” could be Trump reversing his tariffs or the Fed front running a recession with emergency easing measures. If either happens, the crypto market could rally hard and fast.

“某事”可能是王牌扭轉了他的關稅，也可以通過緊急緩解措施進行經濟衰退。如果這兩種情況發生，加密貨幣市場可能會迅速而迅速地集會。

Altseason on the Horizon?

Altseason即將到來？

Meanwhile, Our Crypto Talk says a Quantitative Easing in May could lay the groundwork for a possible altcoin season.

同時，我們的加密貨幣談話說，5月的定量寬鬆可能為可能的山寨幣季節奠定基礎。

Their forecast echoes previous cycles where QE triggered explosive moves in risk assets. When QE kicked off in March 2020, altcoins surged over 100X by the time it ended in 2022.

他們的預測與以前的周期相呼應，QE觸發了風險資產的爆炸性移動。當QE在2020年3月啟動時，到2022年結束時，Altcoins飆升了100倍。

Traders are now eyeing May as a potential kickoff for the next liquidity wave, with bettors wagering a 75% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady. If those odds shift, traders expect the money printer to follow.

現在，交易者正在關注下一個流動性浪潮的潛在開球，而投籃者下注了75％的機會使美聯儲保持穩定。如果這些賠率變化，交易者期望貨幣打印機會遵循。

While some anticipate more price “chop” in the short term, most agree that the long-term setup is increasingly favorable.

儘管有些人在短期內預計會有更多的價格“切碎”，但大多數人都同意長期設置越來越有利。

“If QE really kicks off in May, this chop is just the calm before the giga

“如果QE真的在五月開始，那麼這個碎石就是giga之前的平靜