V形恢复的承诺正在加剧，因为猜测安装座是美联储将枢纽旋转的猜测。

一般而言，加密货币和金融市场正在脱离新的波动和安装地缘政治压力。结果，猜测正在加剧

Crypto and financial markets, in general, are reeling from renewed volatility and mounting geopolitical pressure. As a result, speculation is intensifying around whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot back toward Quantitative Easing (QE).

一般而言，加密货币和金融市场正在脱离新的波动和安装地缘政治压力。结果，围绕美联储（美联储）是否会重新探索定量宽松（QE）的猜测正在加剧。

A potential QE would be reminiscent of the aggressive monetary interventions of 2008 and 2020. For crypto, the implications could be enormous, with many traders bracing for a potential V-shaped recovery and a historic rally if QE is revived.

潜在的量化宽松会让人联想到2008年和2020年的侵略性货币干预措施。对于加密货币，可能会有巨大的含义，许多交易者会为潜在的V形恢复而努力，如果恢复了量化宽松，则有历史性的集会。

Analysts Share Signals Why the FED Could Act

分析师分享信号为什么美联储可以采取行动

Analysts have shared reasons that could prompt the Fed to intervene, with one citing the MOVE Index. This is Wall Street’s “fear gauge” for the bond market. At 137.30, the index is currently within the 130–160 range where the Fed has historically acted during crises.

分析师有共同的理由可以促使美联储干预，其中一项引用了这一举动指数。这是华尔街对债券市场的“恐惧量规”。该指数在137.30处，目前在美联储在危机中历史上行动的130-160范围内。

“Now it’s at 137.30, in the 130–160 range where the Fed might step in, depending on the economy. If they don’t, they’ll still cut rates soon because they have to refinance the debt to keep the Ponzi going,” wrote Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist.

“现在是137.30，在130-160范围内，美联储可能会介入，具体取决于经济，如果不这样做，他们仍然很快就会降低利率，因为他们必须为债务再偿还债务，以保持庞氏骗局的前进，”黑汗资本家的联合创始人Vandell写道。

This signal aligns with other warning signs of financial instability, including global market sell-offs that set the tone for the crypto black Monday narrative. This prompted the Fed to schedule a closed-door board meeting on April 3.

该信号与金融不稳定的其他警告信号保持一致，其中包括为加密黑色星期一叙述定下基调的全球市场抛售。这促使美联储安排4月3日的闭门委员会会议。

According to analysts, this timing was not random, with mounting pressure likely to see the Fed cave and President Trump having his way.

根据分析师的说法，这个时机不是随机的，越来越多的压力可能会看到美联储洞穴和特朗普总统的前进。

“With the Fed hinting at QE, everything changes Risk: Reward is now in favor of the bulls. Watch for choppy price action, but do not miss the recovery rally. And remember… it’s easier to trade this market than to hold through it,” said Aaron Dishner, a crypto trader and analyst.

“随着美联储提出量化宽松的暗示，一切都会改变风险：奖励现在有利于公牛。关注波动的价格行动，但不要错过恢复集会。记住……交易这个市场比坚持下去要容易。”

This suggests that investors are reading between the lines, particularly with the Fed’s next scheduled policy decision not until May 6–7. JPMorgan recently became the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession amid Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, adding urgency to the conversation.

这表明投资者在两条线之间阅读，尤其是在美联储的下一个预定政策决定之前，直到5月6日至7日。摩根大通最近成为第一家在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提议的关税中预测美国经济衰退的第一家银行，这增加了对话的紧迫性。

The bank suggests the Fed may be forced to act sooner, possibly with rate cuts or even QE, before the scheduled FOMC meeting. Against this backdrop, crypto investor Eliz shared a provocative take.

该银行建议，在预定的FOMC会议之前，美联储可能会被迫更快地采取行动，甚至可能会削减速度甚至QE。在这种背景下，加密投资者Eliz分享了一种挑衅的看法。

“I honestly think Trump is doing all this to speed up the Fed’s process to lower rates and QE,” they noted.

他们指出：“老实说，我认为特朗普正在做这一切，以加快美联储的进程，以降低利率和量化宽松的速度。”

That may not be far-fetched given that the Fed must also manage over $34 trillion in federal debt. Noteworthy, this becomes harder to service at higher interest rates. According to Polymarket, there is now a 92% chance the Fed will cut rates at some point in 2025.

鉴于美联储还必须管理超过34万亿美元的联邦债务，这可能不会牵强。值得注意的是，这很难以更高的利率服务。根据Polymarket的说法，现在，美联储在2025年的某个时候有92％的机会降低费率。

Why Crypto Could Benefit From QE

为什么加密可以从量化宽松中受益

Should QE materialize, history suggests crypto could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. BitMEX founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes predicted that QE could inject up to $3.24 trillion into the system, nearly 80% of the amount added during the pandemic.

如果QE实现，历史表明加密货币可能是最大的受益者之一。 BITMEX创始人兼前首席执行官Arthur Hayes预测，量化宽松可以向系统注入3.24万亿美元，近80％的大流行量。

“Bitcoin rose 24x from its COVID-19 low thanks to $4 trillion in stimulus. If we see $3.24 trillion now, BTC could hit $1 million,” he said.

他说：“由于刺激了4万亿美元的刺激，比特币从共同的19个低点上升了24倍。如果我们看到3.24万亿美元，BTC可能会达到100万美元。”

This aligns with his recent prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end if the Fed shifts to QE to support markets.

这与他最近的预测相吻合，即如果美联储转移到量化宽松以支持市场，比特币将达到25万美元。

Analyst Brett offered a more measured view, noting that QE typically follows rate cuts rather than precedes them.

分析师布雷特（Brett）提供了更具衡量的看法，并指出量化宽松通常遵循降低速率，而不是先于它们。

“We’re likely going to see rate cuts through mid-2026…like in 2008 and 2020, Powell has said QE doesn’t come until rate cuts are complete,” Brett explained.

布雷特解释说：“我们很可能会看到2026年中期的削减税率……就像在2008年和2020年一样，鲍威尔（Powell）表示，直到削减速度降低为止。”

Based on this, the analyst committed to buying selectively but did not expect a V-shaped bounce unless something drastic changed.

基于此，分析师承诺有选择地购买，但除非发生了巨大变化，否则没想到V形弹跳。

That “something” could be Trump reversing his tariffs or the Fed front running a recession with emergency easing measures. If either happens, the crypto market could rally hard and fast.

“某事”可能是王牌扭转了他的关税，也可以通过紧急缓解措施进行经济衰退。如果这两种情况发生，加密货币市场可能会迅速而迅速地集会。

Altseason on the Horizon?

Altseason即将到来？

Meanwhile, Our Crypto Talk says a Quantitative Easing in May could lay the groundwork for a possible altcoin season.

同时，我们的加密货币谈话说，5月的定量宽松可能为可能的山寨币季节奠定基础。

Their forecast echoes previous cycles where QE triggered explosive moves in risk assets. When QE kicked off in March 2020, altcoins surged over 100X by the time it ended in 2022.

他们的预测与以前的周期相呼应，QE触发了风险资产的爆炸性移动。当QE在2020年3月启动时，到2022年结束时，Altcoins飙升了100倍。

Traders are now eyeing May as a potential kickoff for the next liquidity wave, with bettors wagering a 75% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady. If those odds shift, traders expect the money printer to follow.

现在，交易者正在关注下一个流动性浪潮的潜在开球，而投篮者下注了75％的机会使美联储保持稳定。如果这些赔率变化，交易者期望货币打印机会遵循。

While some anticipate more price “chop” in the short term, most agree that the long-term setup is increasingly favorable.

尽管有些人在短期内预计会有更多的价格“切碎”，但大多数人都同意长期设置越来越有利。

“If QE really kicks off in May, this chop is just the calm before the giga

“如果QE真的在五月开始，那么这个碎石就是giga之前的平静