預測制定平台Polmoarket上個月達到了一個新的里程碑

與3月相比，這次跳躍增長了20.7％，該平台的快速增長可以追溯到2024年中。

The startup that runs the prediction platform Polymarket saw new market creation hit an all-time high last month, with over 7,000 new prediction markets being launched as the platform continues to evolve.

運行預測平台Polymarket的初創公司上個月創造了新的市場創建，隨著平台的不斷發展，推出了7,000多個新的預測市場。

The new markets represent a 20.7% jump compared to March, continuing the platform’s rapid growth that dates back to mid-2024. The U.S. presidential election brought a wave of interest in prediction markets like Polymarket.

與3月相比，新市場的增長率為20.7％，該平台的快速增長可以追溯到2024年中。美國總統大選對Polymarket等預測市場產生了興趣。

As the election drew closer—especially in the weeks leading up to November—more users joined the platform and placed bets, causing a sharp spike in activity and money being traded.

隨著選舉越來越近，尤其是在11月的幾週內，更多的用戶加入了該平台並下注，從而在活動和貨幣交易中引起了尖銳的飆升。

However, the enthusiasm waned after the election, leading to backlash and controversy. Since then, activity in the markets has slowed. The number of active traders fell from 462,000 in January to 330,000 in April.

然而，選舉後的熱情逐漸減弱，導致了強烈反對和爭議。從那時起，市場的活動已放緩。活躍交易者的數量從1月的462,000下降到4月的330,000。

Meanwhile, trading volume also dropped from $2.6 billion to just under $900 million during the same period.

同時，在同一時期，交易量也從26億美元下降到近9億美元。

The sports market has become one of the more active areas on Polymarket, with users setting up predictions around outcomes like the NBA championship and Champions League results.

體育市場已成為Polymarket上最活躍的領域之一，用戶對NBA冠軍和冠軍聯賽成績等結果進行了預測。

Geopolitical topics have also contributed to activity, such as the U.S.–China trade war and the India–Pakistan conflict. Economic developments like a possible U.S. recession in 2025 have seen moderate engagement.

地緣政治主題也有助於活動，例如美國 - 中國貿易戰和印度 - 巴基斯坦衝突。諸如2025年美國衰退之類的經濟發展已經持平。

Despite the high rate of new market creation, the number of active addresses on Polymarket continues to decline. Some believe that many market creators are doing the work in hopes of a possible airdrop.

儘管新市場創造的速度很高，但Polymarket上的主動地址數量仍在下降。有些人認為，許多市場創作者正在從事這項工作，希望有可能的空投。

Still, talk of an airdrop remains speculative, with no official announcement from the platform.

儘管如此，關於氣盤的談論仍然是投機性的，沒有該平台的正式宣布。

Regulatory Scrutiny and Challenges for Polymarket

監管審查和聚物市場的挑戰

Polymarket has also faced regulatory pressure. In late 2024, the New York City home of CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI, who seized his phone and other electronic devices. The raid was part of a criminal investigation tied to the platform’s operations.

多聚市場也面臨調節壓力。 2024年下半年，紐約市首席執行官Shayne Coplan的住所受到了聯邦調查局（FBI）的突襲，他抓住了他的電話和其他電子設備。突襲是與平台運營相關的刑事調查的一部分。

The investigation is partly focused on whether Polymarket violated the terms of a 2022 settlement with the U.S. government. At that time, the CFTC fined the company $1.4 million for running unlicensed betting markets and ordered it to block U.S. users from using the platform.

該調查部分集中在Polymarket是否違反了2022年與美國政府達成和解的條款。當時，CFTC因運營未許可的投注市場而罰款140萬美元，並命令它阻止美國用戶使用該平台。

After the settlement, Polymarket reportedly applied for a license to operate legally in the U.S. However, despite rumors circulating in April that the company had secured the necessary permit, the CFTC has yet to grant it.

達成和解後，據報導，儘管有傳言稱該公司已獲得必要的許可證，但Polymarket申請了在美國合法運營的許可證，但CFTC尚未授予。

User Sentiment and Future Prospects for Polymarket

用戶情緒和未來的PolyMarket前景

Despite the scrutiny it faced, the platform has continued to generate buzz. Social media commentator Nick Tomaino praised Polymarket as a tool for uncovering truth.

儘管面臨審查，但該平台仍在繼續引起嗡嗡聲。社交媒體評論員尼克·托馬諾（Nick Tomaino）稱讚多聚市場是揭露真相的工具。

He wrote that one of society’s biggest problems is figuring out what’s true, and Polymarket helps with that. He said people are starting to trust markets more than the mainstream media.

他寫道，社會最大的問題之一就是弄清楚了什麼是真實的，而Polymarket對此有所幫助。他說，人們開始比主流媒體更多地信任市場。

He also said Polymarket is the only crypto project with strong market demand beyond token speculation and predicted that prediction market volume will increase 100x from here.

他還說，Polymarket是唯一一個超出令牌投機的加密項目，其市場需求強勁，並預測，從這裡開始預測市場量將增加100倍。

X user Slazac, who had been critical of Polymarket before the 2024 election as a way to cope with uncertainty, admitted he is now impressed by the platform. He called it an amazing tool for essentially predicting the odds of any important event.

X用戶Slazac在2024年選舉之前曾批評Polmarket，以應對不確定性，他承認他現在對平台印象深刻。他稱其為基本上預測任何重要事件的機率的驚人工具。

Polymarket has partnered with several top companies, including crypto payment provider MoonPay and AI firm Perplexity, aiming to improve prediction accuracy and user engagement through AI-powered features.

Polymarket與多家頂級公司合作，包括加密付款提供商Moonpay和AI公司的困惑，旨在通過AI驅動的功能提高預測準確性和用戶參與度。

It remains unclear what will boost active user participation on the platform. But if the ongoing speculation about a token launch turns out to be true, it could lead to increased trading activity and further growth in Polymarket’s new market creation, as seen during the recent turmoil linked to the ZRO token launch.

尚不清楚什麼將促進平台上的積極用戶參與。但是，如果對代幣發布的持續猜測是正確的，那麼這可能會導致貿易活動增加和Polymarket新市場創造的進一步增長，如最近與Zro Token發射有關的動盪中所見。