预测制定平台Polmoarket上个月达到了一个新的里程碑

与3月相比，这次跳跃增长了20.7％，该平台的快速增长可以追溯到2024年中。

The startup that runs the prediction platform Polymarket saw new market creation hit an all-time high last month, with over 7,000 new prediction markets being launched as the platform continues to evolve.

运行预测平台Polymarket的初创公司上个月创造了新的市场创建，随着平台的不断发展，推出了7,000多个新的预测市场。

The new markets represent a 20.7% jump compared to March, continuing the platform’s rapid growth that dates back to mid-2024. The U.S. presidential election brought a wave of interest in prediction markets like Polymarket.

与3月相比，新市场的增长率为20.7％，该平台的快速增长可以追溯到2024年中。美国总统大选对Polymarket等预测市场产生了兴趣。

As the election drew closer—especially in the weeks leading up to November—more users joined the platform and placed bets, causing a sharp spike in activity and money being traded.

随着选举越来越近，尤其是在11月的几周内，更多的用户加入了该平台并下注，从而在活动和货币交易中引起了尖锐的飙升。

However, the enthusiasm waned after the election, leading to backlash and controversy. Since then, activity in the markets has slowed. The number of active traders fell from 462,000 in January to 330,000 in April.

然而，选举后的热情逐渐减弱，导致了强烈反对和争议。从那时起，市场的活动已放缓。活跃交易者的数量从1月的462,000下降到4月的330,000。

Meanwhile, trading volume also dropped from $2.6 billion to just under $900 million during the same period.

同时，在同一时期，交易量也从26亿美元下降到近9亿美元。

The sports market has become one of the more active areas on Polymarket, with users setting up predictions around outcomes like the NBA championship and Champions League results.

体育市场已成为Polymarket上最活跃的领域之一，用户对NBA冠军和冠军联赛成绩等结果进行了预测。

Geopolitical topics have also contributed to activity, such as the U.S.–China trade war and the India–Pakistan conflict. Economic developments like a possible U.S. recession in 2025 have seen moderate engagement.

地缘政治主题也有助于活动，例如美国 - 中国贸易战和印度 - 巴基斯坦冲突。诸如2025年美国衰退之类的经济发展已经持平。

Despite the high rate of new market creation, the number of active addresses on Polymarket continues to decline. Some believe that many market creators are doing the work in hopes of a possible airdrop.

尽管新市场创造的速度很高，但Polymarket上的主动地址数量仍在下降。有些人认为，许多市场创作者正在从事这项工作，希望有可能的空投。

Still, talk of an airdrop remains speculative, with no official announcement from the platform.

尽管如此，关于气盘的谈论仍然是投机性的，没有该平台的正式宣布。

Regulatory Scrutiny and Challenges for Polymarket

监管审查和聚物市场的挑战

Polymarket has also faced regulatory pressure. In late 2024, the New York City home of CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI, who seized his phone and other electronic devices. The raid was part of a criminal investigation tied to the platform’s operations.

多聚市场也面临调节压力。 2024年下半年，纽约市首席执行官Shayne Coplan的住所受到了联邦调查局（FBI）的突袭，他抓住了他的电话和其他电子设备。突袭是与平台运营相关的刑事调查的一部分。

The investigation is partly focused on whether Polymarket violated the terms of a 2022 settlement with the U.S. government. At that time, the CFTC fined the company $1.4 million for running unlicensed betting markets and ordered it to block U.S. users from using the platform.

该调查部分集中在Polymarket是否违反了2022年与美国政府达成和解的条款。当时，CFTC因运营未许可的投注市场而罚款140万美元，并命令它阻止美国用户使用该平台。

After the settlement, Polymarket reportedly applied for a license to operate legally in the U.S. However, despite rumors circulating in April that the company had secured the necessary permit, the CFTC has yet to grant it.

达成和解后，据报道，尽管有传言称该公司已获得必要的许可证，但Polymarket申请了在美国合法运营的许可证，但CFTC尚未授予。

User Sentiment and Future Prospects for Polymarket

用户情绪和未来的PolyMarket前景

Despite the scrutiny it faced, the platform has continued to generate buzz. Social media commentator Nick Tomaino praised Polymarket as a tool for uncovering truth.

尽管面临审查，但该平台仍在继续引起嗡嗡声。社交媒体评论员尼克·托马诺（Nick Tomaino）称赞多聚市场是揭露真相的工具。

He wrote that one of society’s biggest problems is figuring out what’s true, and Polymarket helps with that. He said people are starting to trust markets more than the mainstream media.

他写道，社会最大的问题之一就是弄清楚了什么是真实的，而Polymarket对此有所帮助。他说，人们开始比主流媒体更多地信任市场。

He also said Polymarket is the only crypto project with strong market demand beyond token speculation and predicted that prediction market volume will increase 100x from here.

他还说，Polymarket是唯一一个超出令牌投机的加密项目，其市场需求强劲，并预测，从这里开始预测市场量将增加100倍。

X user Slazac, who had been critical of Polymarket before the 2024 election as a way to cope with uncertainty, admitted he is now impressed by the platform. He called it an amazing tool for essentially predicting the odds of any important event.

X用户Slazac在2024年选举之前曾批评Polmarket，以应对不确定性，他承认他现在对平台印象深刻。他称其为基本上预测任何重要事件的几率的惊人工具。

Polymarket has partnered with several top companies, including crypto payment provider MoonPay and AI firm Perplexity, aiming to improve prediction accuracy and user engagement through AI-powered features.

Polymarket与多家顶级公司合作，包括加密付款提供商Moonpay和AI公司的困惑，旨在通过AI驱动的功能提高预测准确性和用户参与度。

It remains unclear what will boost active user participation on the platform. But if the ongoing speculation about a token launch turns out to be true, it could lead to increased trading activity and further growth in Polymarket’s new market creation, as seen during the recent turmoil linked to the ZRO token launch.

尚不清楚什么将促进平台上的积极用户参与。但是，如果对代币发布的持续猜测是正确的，那么这可能会导致贸易活动增加和Polymarket新市场创造的进一步增长，如最近与Zro Token发射有关的动荡中所见。