在美國，現貨XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）的潛在引入可能會極大地影響令牌的估值

該內容旨在告知，不應被視為財務建議。本文中表達的觀點可能包括作者的個人意見，並且不代表小報的觀點。

The introduction of spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the U.S. could significantly influence the token’s valuation, especially if these products attract even a portion of the capital that has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs.

在美國引入了XRP交易所交易所貿易資金（ETF）可能會極大地影響令牌的估值，特別是如果這些產品甚至吸引了流入比特幣ETF的一部分資本。

As regulatory clarity around XRP continues to improve, the market is increasingly optimistic about the prospects of approval. Recent updates from prediction markets such as Polymarket suggest an 80% probability that an XRP ETF will receive regulatory approval in 2025, a notable increase from 68% just a week prior. As institutional investors show growing interest, the implications for XRP’s price trajectory could be considerable.

隨著XRP周圍的監管清晰度不斷提高，市場對批准的前景越來越樂觀。諸如PolyMarket等預測市場的最新更新表明，XRP ETF將在2025年獲得監管機構批准的概率80％，這顯著增加了一周前的68％。隨著機構投資者表現出越來越多的興趣，對XRP價格軌蹟的影響可能很大。

Projected XRP Valuation Based on ETF Capital Inflows

基於ETF資本流入的預計XRP估值

To estimate the potential impact, it is useful to compare XRP’s prospective ETF inflows to those of Bitcoin. Since January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $39 billion in net inflows, according to Sosovalue. If XRP-based ETFs secure just 15% of that total, it would result in around $5.85 billion entering the market.

為了估計潛在的影響，將XRP的前瞻性ETF與比特幣的前瞻性ETF進行比較是有用的。根據Sosovalue的數據，自2024年1月以來，比特幣ETF累積了約390億美元的淨流入。如果基於XRP的ETF僅獲得該總數的15％，則將導致大約58.5億美元進入市場。

Assuming a conservative multiplier effect of 100x on net ETF inflows, the $5.85 billion could translate into a $585 billion increase in XRP’s market capitalization. When added to its current estimated market cap of $130 billion, XRP’s total valuation would reach roughly $715 billion. With 58.44 billion tokens in circulation, this would equate to a price of approximately $12.23 per XRP, representing a roughly 450% increase from the current price of $2.22.

假設100倍對淨ETF流入的保守乘數效應，這筆58.5億美元可能會轉化為XRP的市值增加5850億美元。當將其目前估計的市值增加到1300億美元時，XRP的總估值將達到約7150億美元。流通期間有584.4億個令牌，這將相當於每XRP的價格約為12.23美元，比目前的價格為2.22美元大約增加了約450％。

If XRP ETFs were to capture 30% of Bitcoin ETF inflows instead, that would bring $11.7 billion into the ecosystem. Applying the same valuation multiplier, this would generate an additional $1.17 trillion in market value. When combined with the current market cap, XRP’s valuation could reach approximately $1.3 trillion. Under these conditions, the price per token would be about $22.20, indicating a nearly 900% rise.

如果XRP ETF捕獲30％的比特幣ETF流入，那將帶來117億美元的生態系統。應用相同的估值乘數，這將產生額外的11.17萬億美元的市場價值。當與當前的市值結合使用時，XRP的估值可能達到約1.3萬億美元。在這些條件下，每個令牌的價格將約為22.20美元，表明近900％上漲。

Progress and Setbacks in XRP ETF Development

XRP ETF開發中的進展和挫折

The growing demand for an XRP ETF among institutional investors is supported by statements from key industry figures, including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who confirmed that the firm is seeing considerable interest in such a product. The ETF landscape for XRP has evolved quickly over the past year.

主要行業數字的陳述（包括位於Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan）支持機構投資者中對XRP ETF的需求不斷增長。在過去的一年中，XRP的ETF景觀迅速發展。

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Teucrium Investment Advisors launched the first leveraged XRP ETF—the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF—on April 8, providing amplified exposure to daily price movements. ProShares has also gained approval to introduce futures-based XRP ETFs, including both long and inverse versions. These instruments, however, are derivative-based and do not hold XRP directly.

Teucrium Investment Advisors於4月8日推出了第一個槓桿XRP ETF（每日2倍長2倍），每天2倍，每日價格變動。 Proshares還獲得了批准，以引入基於期貨的XRP ETF，包括長版本和逆版本。但是，這些儀器是基於導數的，並且不直接持有XRP。

While several ETF providers, including WisdomTree, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise, have filed for spot XRP ETFs, none have yet received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Franklin Templeton’s proposal is currently under extended review, as announced by the SEC on April 29.

雖然包括WisdomTree，21shares，Franklin Templeton和Bitwise在內的幾家ETF提供商已向現場XRP ETF提出了申請，但尚未獲得美國證券交易委員會的批准。富蘭克林·鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton）的提議目前正在擴展審查中，正如SEC在4月29日宣布的那樣。

Support for these efforts is bolstered by developments in regulated futures markets. CFTC-regulated XRP futures products are now offered by Bitnomial, Coinbase, and CME Group, enhancing the asset’s standing among institutional platforms.

受監管的期貨市場的發展支持了對這些努力的支持。 CFTC調節的XRP期貨產品現在由Bitnomial，Coinbase和CME Group提供，從而增強了資產在機構平台之間的地位。

The eventual resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC could also play an important role in the approval timeline. If a spot XRP ETF gains regulatory clearance, even modest inflows could have significant effects on the asset’s market capitalization and token price.

最終解決Ripple與SEC的法律鬥爭也可能在批准時間表中發揮重要作用。如果XRP ETF獲得監管清除率，那麼即使是適度的流入也可能會對資產的市值和代幣價格產生重大影響。

: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.

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