Polymarket，Peter Thiel和$ 1B的估值：投注未來？

Polymarket Eyes是彼得·泰爾（Peter Thiel）的創始人基金會（Peter Thiel's Founders Fund）領導的10億美元估值，這標誌著監管障礙的里程碑，並與X與X建立了突破性的合作夥伴關係。

Polymarket, Peter Thiel, and a $1B Valuation: Betting on the Future?

Polymarket，Peter Thiel和$ 1B的估值：投注未來？

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, is making waves with a potential $1 billion valuation backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, despite regulatory scrutiny and a ban for U.S. users.

總部位於加密貨幣的預測市場Polymarket正在以彼得·泰爾（Peter Thiel）的創始人基金支持10億美元的估值，儘管有監管審查和禁止美國用戶的禁令。

A Unicorn in the Making

製作中的獨角獸

Polymarket is reportedly closing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund, which would catapult the company to a $1 billion valuation. This "unicorn" status is especially noteworthy given Polymarket's inaccessibility to U.S. users due to regulatory issues. It's like throwing a party everyone wants to attend, but only some can get in!

據報導，Polymarket正在關閉由Founders Fund領導的2億美元的資金回合，該基金將使該公司估值10億美元。鑑於由於監管問題，Polymarket對美國用戶的無法訪問，這種“獨角獸”的身份尤其值得注意。這就像舉辦每個人都想參加的聚會，但只有一些人可以參加！

Banned and Raided, Yet Still Drawing Big Money

被禁止和突襲，但仍在抽大筆錢

Despite facing a domestic ban and even an FBI raid that saw the seizure of founder Shayne Coplan's electronics, Polymarket continues to attract significant capital. This new investment follows over $100 million in prior funding, highlighting the platform's resilience and appeal. It's the crypto world's equivalent of a rebellious teen who still manages to ace their exams.

儘管面臨國內禁令，甚至是聯邦調查局的突襲行動，該襲擊使創始人Shayne Coplan的電子產品奪取了癲癇發作，但Polymarket仍在繼續吸引大量資本。這項新投資遵循了超過1億美元的先前資金，突出了該平台的韌性和吸引力。這是加密貨幣世界的等同於一個叛逆的少年，他仍然設法為他們的考試進行了王牌。

The X Factor: A Partnership with Elon Musk

X因素：與Elon Musk的合作夥伴關係

In a move that could redefine how we consume information, Polymarket has partnered with Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter). This integration aims to combine Polymarket's prediction markets with commentary from Grok, X's AI chatbot. Imagine betting on whether a recession is coming while simultaneously getting AI-powered insights—talk about informed speculation!

為了重新定義我們如何消耗信息的舉動，Polymarket與Elon Musk的X（以前為Twitter）合作。這種整合旨在將Polymarket的預測市場與X的AI Chatbot的評論相結合。想像一下，押注經濟衰退是否在同時獲得AI驅動的見解，這是關於知情的猜測！

Stablecoins as the Unsung Heroes

穩定的人作為無名英雄

Coinbase analysts point out that the real winners might be the stablecoins, particularly Circle's USDC on Polygon, which underpin Polymarket's settlement infrastructure. The platform's high-velocity trading—settling, redeploying, and transferring balances continuously—creates substantial demand for USDC. Stablecoins are quietly powering the prediction market machine.

Coinbase分析師指出，真正的贏家可能是Stablecoins，尤其是Circle在Polygon上的USDC，Polygon是Polymarket基礎設施的基礎。該平台的高速交易（不斷地，重新部署和轉移餘額）對USDC產生了巨大的需求。 Stablecoins正在悄悄地為預測市場機器提供動力。

The Numbers Don't Lie

數字不撒謊

Polymarket's growth is undeniable. At its peak in November 2024, trading volume reached $2.5 billion, fueled by speculation on political and geopolitical events. The platform hosts over 21,000 open markets, with 1.2 million traders and $700 million in active trading volume. Even with a dip to $1.1 billion in May, the numbers are still impressive.

多聚市場的增長是不可否認的。在2024年11月的高峰期，交易量達到了25億美元，這是對政治和地緣政治事件的猜測。該平台擁有21,000多個公開市場，擁有120萬交易員和7億美元的積極交易量。即使在5月下降到11億美元，這些數字仍然令人印象深刻。

Regulatory Hurdles and Competition

監管障礙和競爭

However, it's not all smooth sailing. Polymarket faces regulatory pressure beyond the U.S., with bans or restrictions in several countries. It also competes with other prediction platforms like Kalshi. The CFTC is even scrutinizing Super Bowl-related prediction contracts offered by Crypto.com and Kalshi, adding another layer of complexity to the market.

但是，這並不是所有的航行。多個國家 /地區的禁令或限制面臨美國以外的監管壓力。它還與Kalshi等其他預測平台競爭。 CFTC甚至正在仔細檢查Crypto.com和Kalshi提供的與超級碗相關的預測合同，從而增加了另一層複雜性。

Final Thoughts: Is Polymarket the Future of Prediction Markets?

最終想法：Polymarket是預測市場的未來嗎？

Polymarket's potential $1 billion valuation, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, signals a significant milestone for the crypto-based prediction market. Despite regulatory challenges, the platform's growth, innovative partnership with X, and the underlying role of stablecoins paint a compelling picture of its future. While some might see it as a risky bet, others view it as a glimpse into the future of information and finance. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just curious about the world, Polymarket is certainly a platform to watch.

由彼得·泰爾（Peter Thiel）的創始人基金支持的Polymarket潛在的10億美元估值標誌著基於加密貨幣的預測市場的重要里程碑。儘管面臨監管挑戰，但平台的增長，與X的創新合作夥伴關係以及Stablecoins的基本作用描繪了其未來的引人注目的畫面。雖然有些人可能將其視為冒險的賭注，但另一些人認為它是對信息和金融的未來的一瞥。無論您是經驗豐富的商人還是對世界好奇，Polymarket肯定都是值得關注的平台。

So, what's the prediction? Will Polymarket continue to defy the odds, or will regulatory headwinds prove too strong? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: it's going to be an interesting ride. Place your bets, folks!

那麼，預測是什麼？多聚市場會繼續抗拒賠率，還是監管逆風證明太強大了？只有時間會說明，但是可以肯定的是：這將是一個有趣的旅程。下注，伙計們！