Polymarket，Peter Thiel和$ 1B的估值：投注未来？

Polymarket Eyes是彼得·泰尔（Peter Thiel）的创始人基金会（Peter Thiel's Founders Fund）领导的10亿美元估值，这标志着监管障碍的里程碑，并与X与X建立了突破性的合作伙伴关系。

Polymarket, Peter Thiel, and a $1B Valuation: Betting on the Future?

Polymarket，Peter Thiel和$ 1B的估值：投注未来？

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, is making waves with a potential $1 billion valuation backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, despite regulatory scrutiny and a ban for U.S. users.

总部位于加密货币的预测市场Polymarket正在以彼得·泰尔（Peter Thiel）的创始人基金支持10亿美元的估值，尽管有监管审查和禁止美国用户的禁令。

A Unicorn in the Making

制作中的独角兽

Polymarket is reportedly closing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund, which would catapult the company to a $1 billion valuation. This "unicorn" status is especially noteworthy given Polymarket's inaccessibility to U.S. users due to regulatory issues. It's like throwing a party everyone wants to attend, but only some can get in!

据报道，Polymarket正在关闭由Founders Fund领导的2亿美元的资金回合，该基金将使该公司估值10亿美元。鉴于由于监管问题，Polymarket对美国用户的无法访问，这种“独角兽”的身份尤其值得注意。这就像举办每个人都想参加的聚会，但只有一些人可以参加！

Banned and Raided, Yet Still Drawing Big Money

被禁止和突袭，但仍在抽大笔钱

Despite facing a domestic ban and even an FBI raid that saw the seizure of founder Shayne Coplan's electronics, Polymarket continues to attract significant capital. This new investment follows over $100 million in prior funding, highlighting the platform's resilience and appeal. It's the crypto world's equivalent of a rebellious teen who still manages to ace their exams.

尽管面临国内禁令，甚至是联邦调查局的突袭行动，该袭击使创始人Shayne Coplan的电子产品夺取了癫痫发作，但Polymarket仍在继续吸引大量资本。这项新投资遵循了超过1亿美元的先前资金，突出了该平台的韧性和吸引力。这是加密货币世界的等同于一个叛逆的少年，他仍然设法为他们的考试进行了王牌。

The X Factor: A Partnership with Elon Musk

X因素：与Elon Musk的合作伙伴关系

In a move that could redefine how we consume information, Polymarket has partnered with Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter). This integration aims to combine Polymarket's prediction markets with commentary from Grok, X's AI chatbot. Imagine betting on whether a recession is coming while simultaneously getting AI-powered insights—talk about informed speculation!

为了重新定义我们如何消耗信息的举动，Polymarket与Elon Musk的X（以前为Twitter）合作。这种整合旨在将Polymarket的预测市场与X的AI Chatbot的评论相结合。想象一下，押注经济衰退是否在同时获得AI驱动的见解，这是关于知情的猜测！

Stablecoins as the Unsung Heroes

稳定的人作为无名英雄

Coinbase analysts point out that the real winners might be the stablecoins, particularly Circle's USDC on Polygon, which underpin Polymarket's settlement infrastructure. The platform's high-velocity trading—settling, redeploying, and transferring balances continuously—creates substantial demand for USDC. Stablecoins are quietly powering the prediction market machine.

Coinbase分析师指出，真正的赢家可能是Stablecoins，尤其是Circle在Polygon上的USDC，Polygon是Polymarket基础设施的基础。该平台的高速交易（不断地，重新部署和转移余额）对USDC产生了巨大的需求。 Stablecoins正在悄悄地为预测市场机器提供动力。

The Numbers Don't Lie

数字不撒谎

Polymarket's growth is undeniable. At its peak in November 2024, trading volume reached $2.5 billion, fueled by speculation on political and geopolitical events. The platform hosts over 21,000 open markets, with 1.2 million traders and $700 million in active trading volume. Even with a dip to $1.1 billion in May, the numbers are still impressive.

多聚市场的增长是不可否认的。在2024年11月的高峰期，交易量达到了25亿美元，这是对政治和地缘政治事件的猜测。该平台拥有21,000多个公开市场，拥有120万交易员和7亿美元的积极交易量。即使在5月下降到11亿美元，这些数字仍然令人印象深刻。

Regulatory Hurdles and Competition

监管障碍和竞争

However, it's not all smooth sailing. Polymarket faces regulatory pressure beyond the U.S., with bans or restrictions in several countries. It also competes with other prediction platforms like Kalshi. The CFTC is even scrutinizing Super Bowl-related prediction contracts offered by Crypto.com and Kalshi, adding another layer of complexity to the market.

但是，这并不是所有的航行。多个国家 /地区的禁令或限制面临美国以外的监管压力。它还与Kalshi等其他预测平台竞争。 CFTC甚至正在仔细检查Crypto.com和Kalshi提供的与超级碗相关的预测合同，从而增加了另一层复杂性。

Final Thoughts: Is Polymarket the Future of Prediction Markets?

最终想法：Polymarket是预测市场的未来吗？

Polymarket's potential $1 billion valuation, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, signals a significant milestone for the crypto-based prediction market. Despite regulatory challenges, the platform's growth, innovative partnership with X, and the underlying role of stablecoins paint a compelling picture of its future. While some might see it as a risky bet, others view it as a glimpse into the future of information and finance. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just curious about the world, Polymarket is certainly a platform to watch.

由彼得·泰尔（Peter Thiel）的创始人基金支持的Polymarket潜在的10亿美元估值标志着基于加密货币的预测市场的重要里程碑。尽管面临监管挑战，但平台的增长，与X的创新合作伙伴关系以及Stablecoins的基本作用描绘了其未来的引人注目的画面。虽然有些人可能将其视为冒险的赌注，但另一些人认为它是对信息和金融的未来的一瞥。无论您是经验丰富的商人还是对世界好奇，Polymarket肯定都是值得关注的平台。

So, what's the prediction? Will Polymarket continue to defy the odds, or will regulatory headwinds prove too strong? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: it's going to be an interesting ride. Place your bets, folks!

那么，预测是什么？多聚市场会继续抗拒赔率，还是监管逆风证明太强大了？只有时间会说明，但是可以肯定的是：这将是一个有趣的旅程。下注，伙计们！