Polymarket 將 Solana ETF 獲得批准的機率下調至 3%

正如我們所看到的，Solana ETF 面臨的最大挑戰是監管問題。然而，對於如何最好地處理這些問題存在不同的看法。

The probability of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved has dropped to its lowest level yet, according to decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, which now gives it just a 3% chance of being approved.

根據去中心化預測平台 Polymarket 的數據，Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 獲得批准的可能性已降至迄今為止的最低水平，目前該基金獲得批准的可能性僅為 3%。

This marks a steep decline from previous estimates, with the odds of such an ETF staying within the 15% range until now.

這標誌著該 ETF 的賠率較先前的估計大幅下降，到目前為止，此類 ETF 的賠率仍保持在 15% 的範圍內。

The Polymarket downgrade comes amid a broader fight to get other cryptocurrency ETFs approved. The SEC went on to approve Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, but Solana's outlook does not appear good in the short term. Some enthusiasts still have long-term hopes for a Solana ETF.

Polymarket 評等下調之際，正值一場更廣泛的爭取其他加密貨幣 ETF 獲得批准的鬥爭之際。 SEC 在 2024 年繼續批准比特幣和以太坊 ETF，但 Solana 的前景在短期內似乎並不樂觀。一些愛好者仍然對 Solana ETF 抱有長期希望。

Steep Regulatory Hurdles

嚴峻的監管障礙

As seen, the biggest challenge to a Solana ETF is regulatory, with varying perspectives on how best to approach it. According to Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store,

如所見，Solana ETF 面臨的最大挑戰是監管，對於如何最好地應對監管存在不同的看法。 The ETF Store 總裁 Nate Geraci 表示：

“I don’t think there will be any more spot crypto ETFs approved in this administration, and I’ve talked to people that are familiar with the process.”

“我認為本屆政府不會再批准任何現貨加密 ETF，而且我已經與熟悉該流程的人進行了交談。”

He said that it would take a shift in the regulatory landscape or political leadership to put a Solana or XRP ETF back on the table. On the other hand, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, still has optimism for the future of crypto ETFs. He added that Bitcoin ETFs were also rejected for years before being approved. Hougan said that once the regulatory questions are answered, more crypto ETFs, including Solana, could be launched quickly.

他表示，監管環境或政治領導力需要轉變，才能將 Solana 或 XRP ETF 重新納入考慮範圍。另一方面，Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 對加密 ETF 的未來仍然持樂觀態度。他補充說，比特幣 ETF 在獲得批准之前也被拒絕了多年。 Hougan 表示，一旦監管問題得到解答，包括 Solana 在內的更多加密 ETF 可能會迅速推出。

There is also positivity from Brazil approving a Solana ETF, which is expected to set a precedent for other markets. This could open the door for approval in the United States. However, it would still require a shift in the regulatory approach to make it happen.

巴西批准 Solana ETF 也具有積極意義，預計這將為其他市場樹立先例。這可能為美國的批准打開大門。然而，仍需要改變監管方法才能實現這一目標。

Bitwise Champions Solana ETF Despite Odds

儘管困難重重，Bitwise仍勇奪Solana ETF的冠軍

Despite the odds, industry experts do not completely rule out the possibility of a Solana ETF in the long run. Hougan said that the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs paves the way for approval in the future. He also pointed out that regulatory relief is the way to new ETF ideas.

儘管存在這種可能性，但從長遠來看，行業專家並不完全排除 Solana ETF 的可能性。 Hougan表示，比特幣和以太坊ETF的批准為未來的批准鋪平了道路。他也指出，監管放鬆是新ETF理念的出路。

The firm has been at the forefront of offering data support to some of its ETF applications. According to Hougan, Bitwise still supports the Solana ecosystem and is keen on getting approval for the Solana ETF.

該公司一直處於為其部分 ETF 申請提供數據支援的前沿。據 Hougan 稱，Bitwise 仍然支援 Solana 生態系統，並渴望獲得 Solana ETF 的批准。

Although Geraci and Hougan differ in their time frame, they both agree that there needs to be regulatory certainty. The upcoming U.S. presidential election may create a more favorable regulatory environment. However, until a shift in this approach is observable, the chances of a Solana ETF are slim, which aligns with Polymarket's 3% forecast.

儘管 Geraci 和 Hougan 的時間框架不同，但他們都同意監管需要有確定性。即將到來的美國總統大選可能會創造出更有利的監管環境。然而，在這種方法轉變之前，Solana ETF 的機會很小，這與 Polymarket 3% 的預測一致。

The lack of clear direction from the SEC on this front remains a significant concern for market players, especially as other countries, such as Brazil, continue to launch new Crypto ETFs. If Solana is to succeed, then the U.S. regulatory environment must change dramatically.

美國證券交易委員會在這方面缺乏明確的方向仍然是市場參與者的一個重大擔憂，特別是在巴西等其他國家繼續推出新的加密貨幣 ETF 的情況下。如果 Solana 想要成功，那麼美國的監管環境必須發生巨大變化。