Polymarket 将 Solana ETF 获得批准的概率下调至 3%

正如我们所看到的，Solana ETF 面临的最大挑战是监管问题。然而，对于如何最好地处理这些问题存在不同的看法。

The probability of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved has dropped to its lowest level yet, according to decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, which now gives it just a 3% chance of being approved.

根据去中心化预测平台 Polymarket 的数据，Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获得批准的可能性已降至迄今为止的最低水平，目前该基金获得批准的可能性仅为 3%。

This marks a steep decline from previous estimates, with the odds of such an ETF staying within the 15% range until now.

这标志着该 ETF 的赔率较之前的估计大幅下降，到目前为止，此类 ETF 的赔率仍保持在 15% 的范围内。

The Polymarket downgrade comes amid a broader fight to get other cryptocurrency ETFs approved. The SEC went on to approve Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, but Solana's outlook does not appear good in the short term. Some enthusiasts still have long-term hopes for a Solana ETF.

Polymarket 评级下调之际，正值一场更广泛的争取其他加密货币 ETF 获得批准的斗争之际。 SEC 在 2024 年继续批准比特币和以太坊 ETF，但 Solana 的前景在短期内似乎并不乐观。一些爱好者仍然对 Solana ETF 抱有长期希望。

Steep Regulatory Hurdles

严峻的监管障碍

As seen, the biggest challenge to a Solana ETF is regulatory, with varying perspectives on how best to approach it. According to Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store,

正如所见，Solana ETF 面临的最大挑战是监管，对于如何最好地应对监管存在不同的看法。 The ETF Store 总裁 Nate Geraci 表示：

“I don’t think there will be any more spot crypto ETFs approved in this administration, and I’ve talked to people that are familiar with the process.”

“我认为本届政府不会再批准任何现货加密 ETF，而且我已经与熟悉该流程的人进行了交谈。”

He said that it would take a shift in the regulatory landscape or political leadership to put a Solana or XRP ETF back on the table. On the other hand, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, still has optimism for the future of crypto ETFs. He added that Bitcoin ETFs were also rejected for years before being approved. Hougan said that once the regulatory questions are answered, more crypto ETFs, including Solana, could be launched quickly.

他表示，监管环境或政治领导力需要发生转变，才能将 Solana 或 XRP ETF 重新纳入考虑范围。另一方面，Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 对加密 ETF 的未来仍然持乐观态度。他补充说，比特币 ETF 在获得批准之前也被拒绝了多年。 Hougan 表示，一旦监管问题得到解答，包括 Solana 在内的更多加密 ETF 可能会迅速推出。

There is also positivity from Brazil approving a Solana ETF, which is expected to set a precedent for other markets. This could open the door for approval in the United States. However, it would still require a shift in the regulatory approach to make it happen.

巴西批准 Solana ETF 也具有积极意义，预计这将为其他市场树立先例。这可能为美国的批准打开大门。然而，仍然需要改变监管方法才能实现这一目标。

Bitwise Champions Solana ETF Despite Odds

尽管困难重重，Bitwise仍勇夺Solana ETF的冠军

Despite the odds, industry experts do not completely rule out the possibility of a Solana ETF in the long run. Hougan said that the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs paves the way for approval in the future. He also pointed out that regulatory relief is the way to new ETF ideas.

尽管存在这种可能性，但从长远来看，行业专家并不完全排除 Solana ETF 的可能性。 Hougan表示，比特币和以太坊ETF的批准为未来的批准铺平了道路。他还指出，监管放松是新ETF理念的出路。

The firm has been at the forefront of offering data support to some of its ETF applications. According to Hougan, Bitwise still supports the Solana ecosystem and is keen on getting approval for the Solana ETF.

该公司一直处于为其部分 ETF 申请提供数据支持的前沿。据 Hougan 称，Bitwise 仍然支持 Solana 生态系统，并渴望获得 Solana ETF 的批准。

Although Geraci and Hougan differ in their time frame, they both agree that there needs to be regulatory certainty. The upcoming U.S. presidential election may create a more favorable regulatory environment. However, until a shift in this approach is observable, the chances of a Solana ETF are slim, which aligns with Polymarket's 3% forecast.

尽管 Geraci 和 Hougan 的时间框架不同，但他们都同意监管需要有确定性。即将到来的美国总统大选可能会创造更加有利的监管环境。然而，在这种方法发生转变之前，Solana ETF 的机会很小，这与 Polymarket 3% 的预测一致。

The lack of clear direction from the SEC on this front remains a significant concern for market players, especially as other countries, such as Brazil, continue to launch new Crypto ETFs. If Solana is to succeed, then the U.S. regulatory environment must change dramatically.

美国证券交易委员会在这方面缺乏明确的方向仍然是市场参与者的一个重大担忧，特别是在巴西等其他国家继续推出新的加密货币 ETF 的情况下。如果 Solana 想要成功，那么美国的监管环境必须发生巨大变化。