Pengu價格，美聯儲降價和市場期望：紐約市的觀點

根據潛在的稅收降低和市場期望的轉移，分析彭格的價格變動。在這個模因和更廣闊的市場上獲取內部勺子！

PENGU Price, Fed Rate Cut, and Market Expectations: A NYC Perspective

Pengu價格，美聯儲降價和市場期望：紐約市的觀點

PENGU, the Pudgy Penguins' native currency, is riding a wave of anticipation as the Federal Reserve contemplates interest rate adjustments. Market participants are buzzing about the potential impact on risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies.

矮胖的企鵝的原始貨幣彭格（Pengu）正在考慮調整利率，這是一波期待。市場參與者對風險資產的潛在影響，尤其是加密貨幣的潛在影響。

Technical Structure: PENGU's Key Moving Average Retest

技術結構：Pengu的密鑰移動平均值重新測試

Currently, PENGU is hovering above $0.0337. It recently broke free from a multi-week downtrend, a move that had been stifling upward momentum since July. Following the breakout, PENGU retraced to retest the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish persistence.

目前，Pengu徘徊在0.0337美元以上。它最近擺脫了一個多周的下降趨勢，這一舉動自7月以來一直在扼殺勢頭。突破之後，Pengu回顧以重新測試20天的指數移動平均線（EMA），這是看漲持久性的關鍵指標。

Lark Davis, founder of Wealth Mastery, highlighted this crucial juncture, noting that this retest is often used to gauge whether bullish momentum can sustain itself after a resistance breakout. Historically, successful 20-day EMA retests have paved the way for further rallies.

財富精通的創始人拉克·戴維斯（Lark Davis）強調了這個關鍵時刻，並指出這種重新測試通常用於評估看漲的勢頭在抵抗突破後是否可以維持自己。從歷史上看，成功的20天EMA重新測試為進一步的集會鋪平了道路。

The 50-day EMA, another supportive layer, sits just below the current price. While trading volume hasn't reached the fever pitch of early July, it suggests investors are cautiously awaiting a catalyst before committing further.

另一個支持層的50天EMA位於當前價格以下。雖然交易量還沒有達到7月初的熱度，但這表明投資者在進一步提交之前謹慎地等待催化劑。

Analysts pinpoint the $0.05 mark as the next significant resistance point, a potential 50% surge from current levels. However, they caution about volatility surrounding the FOMC meeting. Still, the bullish outlook for $0.05 remains.

分析師將$ 0.05的標記指定為下一個重要的電阻點，潛在的50％的潮流來自當前水平。但是，他們警告FOMC會議周圍的波動性。儘管如此，仍需0.05美元的看漲前景。

Macro Backdrop: Fed Rate Cut Expectations

宏觀背景：美聯儲降低期望

The bigger picture revolves around monetary policy. The CME Fedwatch Tool indicates a high probability (94%) of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the current Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A more aggressive 50-basis-point cut remains a slim possibility.

更大的局面圍繞貨幣政策。 CME FedWatch工具表明，在當前聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議上降低25個基準點的可能性（94％）。更具侵略性的50個基礎點削減仍然可能性很小。

However, the focus is shifting to the duration of high rates. Estimates suggest the federal funds rate could dip below 4% as early as October 2025, a far cry from the current 5.25-5.50%. A return to rates around 6% isn't expected until late 2026, signaling a gradual easing rather than a swift return to near-zero interest rates.

但是，重點是轉移到高率的持續時間。估計表明，最早在2025年10月，聯邦資金利率可能會降至4％以下，這與目前的5.25-5.50％相去甚遠。直到2026年下半年，才能回報率約6％，這表明逐漸緩解，而不是迅速恢復到接近零的利率。

Weak Labor Market and Sticky Inflation

勞動力市場疲軟和通貨膨脹

This policy shift is partly driven by a softening employment outlook. Recent data shows downward revisions to payrolls and a halving of previous job growth projections. Job vacancies are at their lowest in years, while jobless claims are at their highest since late 2021.

這種政策轉變部分是由柔和的就業前景驅動的。最近的數據顯示了對薪資的下降修訂，並減少了先前的工作增長預測。職位空缺是多年來最低的，而失業者的主張自2021年底以來處於最高水平。

Despite the labor market cool-down, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target. Persistent price pressures, particularly from wages and energy markets, complicate the central bank's decision-making process.

儘管勞動力市場冷卻，但通貨膨脹仍然固執地超過美聯儲2％的目標。持續的價格壓力，尤其是工資和能源市場，使中央銀行的決策過程變得複雜。

In this environment, speculative assets like PENGU are highly sensitive to expectations of looser financial conditions. The combination of a critical technical retest and growing rate cut expectations has traders glued to the FOMC's next move.

在這種環境下，諸如彭格（Pengu）之類的投機資產對較寬鬆的財務狀況的期望非常敏感。關鍵的技術重新測試和增長的降低期望的結合使交易者粘在FOMC的下一步行動上。

Short-Term PENGU Retracement Likely

短期Pengu回撤可能

Currently, PENGU trades around $0.03297, down nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. Despite the price dip, trading volume has increased, suggesting active readjustment by investors.

目前，Pengu的交易約為0.03297美元，在過去24小時內下降了近5％。儘管價格下跌，但交易量仍增加，這表明投資者積極調整。

Crypto analyst Chris Md points to a completed five-wave Elliott impulse, indicating a potential short-term ABC corrective pattern. Resistance zones cluster around $0.035, while support zones lie around $0.033. The current RSI suggests declining momentum, which may continue unless buying pressure emerges at lower support levels.

加密分析師克里斯（Chris）MD指向完整的五波Elliott衝動，表明潛在的短期ABC糾正模式。電阻區域集群約為0.035美元，而支撐區則為0.033美元。當前的RSI表明勢頭下降，除非購買壓力以較低的支持水平出現，否則這種勢頭可能會繼續下去。

A bullish scenario would involve PENGU recovering from the $0.0341-$0.0330 range, with breakout targets at $0.0375 and $0.0389. Conversely, a drop below $0.0320 could send the price back down to $0.0300 or lower.

看漲的情況將涉及Pengu從$ 0.0341- $ 0.0330範圍內恢復，分組目標為0.0375美元和0.0389美元。相反，低於$ 0.0320的跌幅可能會將價格降低到$ 0.0300或更低。

Looking Ahead: PENGU Forecasts for 2025

展望未來：Pengu預測2025年

DigitalCoinPrice forecasts PENGU to surpass its previous high of $0.05738, potentially reaching $0.0723 by the end of 2025. Coincodex, however, offers a more pessimistic outlook, suggesting a potential low of $0.026332 by September 2025.

DigitalCoinPrice預測Pengu將超過其先前的0.05738 $ 0.05738，到2025年底可能達到0.0723美元。但是，Coincodex提供了更加悲觀的外觀，這表明到2025年9月9日，潛在的低價為0.026332美元。

Conclusion: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

結論：謹慎樂觀的前景

PENGU's price action is currently influenced by potential Fed rate cuts and shifting market sentiment. While a short-term retracement is possible, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, pending further developments in monetary policy and market dynamics.

Pengu的價格行動目前受到潛在的美聯儲降低和轉移市場情緒的影響。儘管可以進行短期回撤，但長期前景仍然謹慎樂觀，等待貨幣政策和市場動態的進一步發展。

So, keep an eye on those penguins, folks! The market's a wild ride, but with a little savvy and a dash of humor, we can all navigate these crypto currents. After all, who doesn't love a good penguin party?

因此，請注意那些企鵝，伙計們！市場是一個瘋狂的旅程，但是有些精明和幽默，我們都可以瀏覽這些加密貨幣。畢竟，誰不喜歡一個好的企鵝聚會？