Pengu价格，美联储降价和市场期望：纽约市的观点

根据潜在的税收降低和市场期望的转移，分析彭格的价格变动。在这个模因和更广阔的市场上获取内部勺子！

PENGU Price, Fed Rate Cut, and Market Expectations: A NYC Perspective

Pengu价格，美联储降价和市场期望：纽约市的观点

PENGU, the Pudgy Penguins' native currency, is riding a wave of anticipation as the Federal Reserve contemplates interest rate adjustments. Market participants are buzzing about the potential impact on risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies.

矮胖的企鹅的原始货币彭格（Pengu）正在考虑调整利率，这是一波期待。市场参与者对风险资产的潜在影响，尤其是加密货币的潜在影响。

Technical Structure: PENGU's Key Moving Average Retest

技术结构：Pengu的密钥移动平均值重新测试

Currently, PENGU is hovering above $0.0337. It recently broke free from a multi-week downtrend, a move that had been stifling upward momentum since July. Following the breakout, PENGU retraced to retest the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish persistence.

目前，Pengu徘徊在0.0337美元以上。它最近摆脱了一个多周的下降趋势，这一举动自7月以来一直在扼杀势头。突破之后，Pengu回顾以重新测试20天的指数移动平均线（EMA），这是看涨持久性的关键指标。

Lark Davis, founder of Wealth Mastery, highlighted this crucial juncture, noting that this retest is often used to gauge whether bullish momentum can sustain itself after a resistance breakout. Historically, successful 20-day EMA retests have paved the way for further rallies.

财富精通的创始人拉克·戴维斯（Lark Davis）强调了这个关键时刻，并指出这种重新测试通常用于评估看涨的势头在抵抗突破后是否可以维持自己。从历史上看，成功的20天EMA重新测试为进一步的集会铺平了道路。

The 50-day EMA, another supportive layer, sits just below the current price. While trading volume hasn't reached the fever pitch of early July, it suggests investors are cautiously awaiting a catalyst before committing further.

另一个支持层的50天EMA位于当前价格以下。虽然交易量还没有达到7月初的热度，但这表明投资者在进一步提交之前谨慎地等待催化剂。

Analysts pinpoint the $0.05 mark as the next significant resistance point, a potential 50% surge from current levels. However, they caution about volatility surrounding the FOMC meeting. Still, the bullish outlook for $0.05 remains.

分析师将$ 0.05的标记指定为下一个重要的电阻点，潜在的50％的潮流来自当前水平。但是，他们警告FOMC会议周围的波动性。尽管如此，仍需0.05美元的看涨前景。

Macro Backdrop: Fed Rate Cut Expectations

宏观背景：美联储降低期望

The bigger picture revolves around monetary policy. The CME Fedwatch Tool indicates a high probability (94%) of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the current Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A more aggressive 50-basis-point cut remains a slim possibility.

更大的局面围绕货币政策。 CME FedWatch工具表明，在当前联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上降低25个基准点的可能性（94％）。更具侵略性的50个基础点削减仍然可能性很小。

However, the focus is shifting to the duration of high rates. Estimates suggest the federal funds rate could dip below 4% as early as October 2025, a far cry from the current 5.25-5.50%. A return to rates around 6% isn't expected until late 2026, signaling a gradual easing rather than a swift return to near-zero interest rates.

但是，重点是转移到高率的持续时间。估计表明，最早在2025年10月，联邦资金利率可能会降至4％以下，这与目前的5.25-5.50％相去甚远。直到2026年下半年，才能回报率约6％，这表明逐渐缓解，而不是迅速恢复到接近零的利率。

Weak Labor Market and Sticky Inflation

劳动力市场疲软和通货膨胀

This policy shift is partly driven by a softening employment outlook. Recent data shows downward revisions to payrolls and a halving of previous job growth projections. Job vacancies are at their lowest in years, while jobless claims are at their highest since late 2021.

这种政策转变部分是由柔和的就业前景驱动的。最近的数据显示了对薪资的下降修订，并减少了先前的工作增长预测。职位空缺是多年来最低的，而失业者的主张自2021年底以来处于最高水平。

Despite the labor market cool-down, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target. Persistent price pressures, particularly from wages and energy markets, complicate the central bank's decision-making process.

尽管劳动力市场冷却，但通货膨胀仍然固执地超过美联储2％的目标。持续的价格压力，尤其是工资和能源市场，使中央银行的决策过程变得复杂。

In this environment, speculative assets like PENGU are highly sensitive to expectations of looser financial conditions. The combination of a critical technical retest and growing rate cut expectations has traders glued to the FOMC's next move.

在这种环境下，诸如彭格（Pengu）之类的投机资产对较宽松的财务状况的期望非常敏感。关键的技术重新测试和增长的降低期望的结合使交易者粘在FOMC的下一步行动上。

Short-Term PENGU Retracement Likely

短期Pengu回撤可能

Currently, PENGU trades around $0.03297, down nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. Despite the price dip, trading volume has increased, suggesting active readjustment by investors.

目前，Pengu的交易约为0.03297美元，在过去24小时内下降了近5％。尽管价格下跌，但交易量仍增加，这表明投资者积极调整。

Crypto analyst Chris Md points to a completed five-wave Elliott impulse, indicating a potential short-term ABC corrective pattern. Resistance zones cluster around $0.035, while support zones lie around $0.033. The current RSI suggests declining momentum, which may continue unless buying pressure emerges at lower support levels.

加密分析师克里斯（Chris）MD指向完整的五波Elliott冲动，表明潜在的短期ABC纠正模式。电阻区域集群约为0.035美元，而支撑区则为0.033美元。当前的RSI表明势头下降，除非购买压力以较低的支持水平出现，否则这种势头可能会继续下去。

A bullish scenario would involve PENGU recovering from the $0.0341-$0.0330 range, with breakout targets at $0.0375 and $0.0389. Conversely, a drop below $0.0320 could send the price back down to $0.0300 or lower.

看涨的情况将涉及Pengu从$ 0.0341- $ 0.0330范围内恢复，分组目标为0.0375美元和0.0389美元。相反，低于$ 0.0320的跌幅可能会将价格降低到$ 0.0300或更低。

Looking Ahead: PENGU Forecasts for 2025

展望未来：Pengu预测2025年

DigitalCoinPrice forecasts PENGU to surpass its previous high of $0.05738, potentially reaching $0.0723 by the end of 2025. Coincodex, however, offers a more pessimistic outlook, suggesting a potential low of $0.026332 by September 2025.

DigitalCoinPrice预测Pengu将超过其先前的0.05738 $ 0.05738，到2025年底可能达到0.0723美元。但是，Coincodex提供了更加悲观的外观，这表明到2025年9月9日，潜在的低价为0.026332美元。

Conclusion: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

结论：谨慎乐观的前景

PENGU's price action is currently influenced by potential Fed rate cuts and shifting market sentiment. While a short-term retracement is possible, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, pending further developments in monetary policy and market dynamics.

Pengu的价格行动目前受到潜在的美联储降低和转移市场情绪的影响。尽管可以进行短期回撤，但长期前景仍然谨慎乐观，等待货币政策和市场动态的进一步发展。

So, keep an eye on those penguins, folks! The market's a wild ride, but with a little savvy and a dash of humor, we can all navigate these crypto currents. After all, who doesn't love a good penguin party?

因此，请注意那些企鹅，伙计们！市场是一个疯狂的旅程，但是有些精明和幽默，我们都可以浏览这些加密货币。毕竟，谁不喜欢一个好的企鹅聚会？