Nick Szabo，比特幣未來和 BTC：駕馭 2025 年加密貨幣格局

探索 Nick Szabo 在市場波動中對比特幣未來的見解。了解採用、投機和不斷發展的加密貨幣格局。

Nick Szabo, a key figure in Bitcoin's early development, offers crucial perspectives on BTC's future. This article dives into his views on adoption, market psychology, and the overall trajectory of Bitcoin in an increasingly complex financial world.

尼克·薩博 (Nick Szabo) 是比特幣早期發展的關鍵人物，他對比特幣的未來提出了重要的觀點。本文深入探討了他對比特幣在日益複雜的金融世界中的採用、市場心理以及比特幣總體軌蹟的看法。

Szabo's Vision: Bitcoin's Psychological Evolution

薩博的願景：比特幣的心理進化

In late 2025, Nick Szabo emphasized that Bitcoin is still undergoing a crucial learning process, not just technically, but psychologically. He points out that as more individuals recognize Bitcoin's role as a low-confidence, inflation-resistant store of value amidst global economic instability, its adoption will continue to grow.

2025 年末，Nick Szabo 強調，比特幣仍在經歷一個關鍵的學習過程，不僅是技術上的，而且是心理上的。他指出，隨著越來越多的人認識到比特幣在全球經濟不穩定的情況下作為一種低信心、抗通脹的價值儲存手段的作用，其採用率將繼續增長。

Adoption vs. Speculation: A NASDAQ Parallel

採用與投機：納斯達克的相似之處

Szabo draws a parallel between Bitcoin's adoption pattern and popular NASDAQ stocks. He observes waves of adoption followed by periods of excessive speculation and market noise. This suggests that the market still has much to learn about Bitcoin's underlying mechanisms and its long-term potential.

薩博將比特幣的採用模式與流行的納斯達克股票進行了類比。他觀察到採用浪潮之後是過度投機和市場噪音的時期。這表明市場對於比特幣的基本機制及其長期潛力仍有很多需要了解的地方。

Early-stage adoption means many participants don't fully grasp Bitcoin's core principles, leading to significant price fluctuations driven by speculation rather than genuine adoption. Over time, deeper understanding should stabilize the exchange rate.

早期採用意味著許多參與者沒有完全掌握比特幣的核心原則，導致投機而非真正採用導致價格大幅波動。隨著時間的推移，更深入的了解應該會穩定匯率。

Beyond Technology: The Importance of Sound Money

超越技術：穩健貨幣的重要性

Szabo stresses that Bitcoin's value extends beyond its technology. Its true significance lies in its ability to serve as "sound money" – a stable, non-dilutable alternative, especially valuable during times of economic uncertainty. However, realizing this potential requires broader understanding and acceptance from the global community.

薩博強調，比特幣的價值超出了其技術範圍。它的真正意義在於其作為“穩健貨幣”的能力——一種穩定的、不可稀釋的替代品，在經濟不確定時期尤其有價值。然而，實現這一潛力需要國際社會更廣泛的理解和接受。

Addressing Market Doubts

解決市場疑慮

When concerns arise about Bitcoin hitting a ceiling, Szabo dismisses the notion, asserting that Bitcoin's history and architecture reveal its likely path forward. He believes Bitcoin will continue to evolve as understanding and adoption increase. While market fluctuations may cause short-term concerns, Szabo's core message remains consistent: education, not just macroeconomics, is Bitcoin's most crucial signal.

當人們擔心比特幣觸及上限時，薩博駁斥了這一觀點，聲稱比特幣的歷史和架構揭示了其可能的前進道路。他相信，隨著理解和採用的增加，比特幣將繼續發展。儘管市場波動可能會引起短期擔憂，但薩博的核心信息仍然一致：教育，而不僅僅是宏觀經濟，是比特幣最重要的信號。

The Bitcoin Core v30 Debate: A Balancing Act

比特幣核心 v30 爭論：平衡之舉

Adding another layer to the Bitcoin narrative, Szabo voiced concerns about Bitcoin Core v30, urging users to consider Bitcoin Knots. His worries center on the potential for non-financial data, possibly illicit content, to be permanently recorded on the blockchain. This highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing innovation with security and ethical considerations.

Szabo 表達了對 Bitcoin Core v30 的擔憂，敦促用戶考慮 Bitcoin Knots，這為比特幣的敘述增添了另一層內容。他的擔憂集中在非金融數據（可能是非法內容）被永久記錄在區塊鏈上的可能性。這凸顯了平衡創新與安全和道德考慮之間的持續挑戰。

Market Dynamics: Futures and Trader Sentiment

市場動態：期貨和交易者情緒

Recent data reveals an increasingly dynamic Bitcoin futures market, particularly on Binance. While spot activity may appear subdued, the futures market shows a structural shift in trader sentiment. Initially dominated by taker buy volume, there's been a resurgence of taker sell pressure, indicating profit-taking within the $110,000-$115,000 price range. This "moderation" could signal long-term strength and market maturation.

最近的數據顯示比特幣期貨市場日益活躍，尤其是在幣安上。儘管現貨活動可能顯得疲弱，但期貨市場顯示交易者情緒發生了結構性轉變。最初以接受者買入量為主，但接受者賣出壓力再次出現，表明在 110,000 美元至 115,000 美元的價格範圍內獲利了結。這種“溫和”可能預示著長期的強勢和市場的成熟。

The Broader Crypto Landscape: Volatility and Key Events

更廣泛的加密貨幣格局：波動性和關鍵事件

The broader crypto market has experienced significant volatility, with substantial liquidations and Bitcoin entering bear territory. Events like the U.S. government shutdown and global economic concerns further contribute to market uncertainty. Despite this, key developments such as Gemini's plans for a prediction market and a potential shift towards a pro-crypto stance in the U.S. indicate ongoing evolution and adaptation.

更廣泛的加密市場經歷了巨大的波動，大量清算和比特幣進入熊市。美國政府關門和全球經濟擔憂等事件進一步加劇了市場的不確定性。儘管如此，Gemini 的預測市場計劃以及美國可能轉向支持加密貨幣的立場等關鍵進展表明了持續的演變和適應。

Final Thoughts: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

最後的想法：謹慎樂觀的前景

Despite the market's ups and downs, Nick Szabo's insights offer a cautiously optimistic perspective on Bitcoin's future. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term potential hinges on education, adoption, and the ability to navigate regulatory and ethical challenges. So, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! The ride may be bumpy, but the destination could be pretty spectacular.

儘管市場起伏不定，尼克·薩博的見解對比特幣的未來提出了謹慎樂觀的看法。雖然短期波動不可避免，但長期潛力取決於教育、採用以及應對監管和道德挑戰的能力。所以，係好安全帶，加密貨幣愛好者！旅程可能會很顛簸，但目的地可能會非常壯觀。