Nick Szabo，比特币未来和 BTC：驾驭 2025 年加密货币格局

探索 Nick Szabo 在市场波动中对比特币未来的见解。了解采用、投机和不断发展的加密货币格局。

Nick Szabo, a key figure in Bitcoin's early development, offers crucial perspectives on BTC's future. This article dives into his views on adoption, market psychology, and the overall trajectory of Bitcoin in an increasingly complex financial world.

尼克·萨博 (Nick Szabo) 是比特币早期发展的关键人物，他对比特币的未来提出了重要的观点。本文深入探讨了他对比特币在日益复杂的金融世界中的采用、市场心理以及比特币总体轨迹的看法。

Szabo's Vision: Bitcoin's Psychological Evolution

萨博的愿景：比特币的心理进化

In late 2025, Nick Szabo emphasized that Bitcoin is still undergoing a crucial learning process, not just technically, but psychologically. He points out that as more individuals recognize Bitcoin's role as a low-confidence, inflation-resistant store of value amidst global economic instability, its adoption will continue to grow.

2025 年末，Nick Szabo 强调，比特币仍在经历一个关键的学习过程，不仅是技术上的，而且是心理上的。他指出，随着越来越多的人认识到比特币在全球经济不稳定的情况下作为一种低信心、抗通胀的价值储存手段的作用，其采用率将继续增长。

Adoption vs. Speculation: A NASDAQ Parallel

采用与投机：纳斯达克的相似之处

Szabo draws a parallel between Bitcoin's adoption pattern and popular NASDAQ stocks. He observes waves of adoption followed by periods of excessive speculation and market noise. This suggests that the market still has much to learn about Bitcoin's underlying mechanisms and its long-term potential.

萨博将比特币的采用模式与流行的纳斯达克股票进行了类比。他观察到采用浪潮之后是过度投机和市场噪音的时期。这表明市场对于比特币的基本机制及其长期潜力仍有很多需要了解的地方。

Early-stage adoption means many participants don't fully grasp Bitcoin's core principles, leading to significant price fluctuations driven by speculation rather than genuine adoption. Over time, deeper understanding should stabilize the exchange rate.

早期采用意味着许多参与者没有完全掌握比特币的核心原则，导致投机而非真正采用导致价格大幅波动。随着时间的推移，更深入的了解应该会稳定汇率。

Beyond Technology: The Importance of Sound Money

超越技术：稳健货币的重要性

Szabo stresses that Bitcoin's value extends beyond its technology. Its true significance lies in its ability to serve as "sound money" – a stable, non-dilutable alternative, especially valuable during times of economic uncertainty. However, realizing this potential requires broader understanding and acceptance from the global community.

萨博强调，比特币的价值超出了其技术范围。它的真正意义在于其作为“稳健货币”的能力——一种稳定的、不可稀释的替代品，在经济不确定时期尤其有价值。然而，实现这一潜力需要国际社会更广泛的理解和接受。

Addressing Market Doubts

解决市场疑虑

When concerns arise about Bitcoin hitting a ceiling, Szabo dismisses the notion, asserting that Bitcoin's history and architecture reveal its likely path forward. He believes Bitcoin will continue to evolve as understanding and adoption increase. While market fluctuations may cause short-term concerns, Szabo's core message remains consistent: education, not just macroeconomics, is Bitcoin's most crucial signal.

当人们担心比特币触及上限时，萨博驳斥了这一观点，声称比特币的历史和架构揭示了其可能的前进道路。他相信，随着理解和采用的增加，比特币将继续发展。尽管市场波动可能会引起短期担忧，但萨博的核心信息仍然一致：教育，而不仅仅是宏观经济，是比特币最重要的信号。

The Bitcoin Core v30 Debate: A Balancing Act

比特币核心 v30 争论：平衡之举

Adding another layer to the Bitcoin narrative, Szabo voiced concerns about Bitcoin Core v30, urging users to consider Bitcoin Knots. His worries center on the potential for non-financial data, possibly illicit content, to be permanently recorded on the blockchain. This highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing innovation with security and ethical considerations.

Szabo 表达了对 Bitcoin Core v30 的担忧，敦促用户考虑 Bitcoin Knots，这为比特币的叙述增添了另一层内容。他的担忧集中在非金融数据（可能是非法内容）被永久记录在区块链上的可能性。这凸显了平衡创新与安全和道德考虑之间的持续挑战。

Market Dynamics: Futures and Trader Sentiment

市场动态：期货和交易者情绪

Recent data reveals an increasingly dynamic Bitcoin futures market, particularly on Binance. While spot activity may appear subdued, the futures market shows a structural shift in trader sentiment. Initially dominated by taker buy volume, there's been a resurgence of taker sell pressure, indicating profit-taking within the $110,000-$115,000 price range. This "moderation" could signal long-term strength and market maturation.

最近的数据显示比特币期货市场日益活跃，尤其是在币安上。尽管现货活动可能显得疲弱，但期货市场显示交易者情绪发生了结构性转变。最初以接受者买入量为主，但接受者卖出压力再次出现，表明在 110,000 美元至 115,000 美元的价格范围内获利了结。这种“温和”可能预示着长期的强势和市场的成熟。

The Broader Crypto Landscape: Volatility and Key Events

更广泛的加密货币格局：波动性和关键事件

The broader crypto market has experienced significant volatility, with substantial liquidations and Bitcoin entering bear territory. Events like the U.S. government shutdown and global economic concerns further contribute to market uncertainty. Despite this, key developments such as Gemini's plans for a prediction market and a potential shift towards a pro-crypto stance in the U.S. indicate ongoing evolution and adaptation.

更广泛的加密市场经历了巨大的波动，大量清算和比特币进入熊市。美国政府关门和全球经济担忧等事件进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。尽管如此，Gemini 的预测市场计划以及美国可能转向支持加密货币的立场等关键进展表明了持续的演变和适应。

Final Thoughts: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

最后的想法：谨慎乐观的前景

Despite the market's ups and downs, Nick Szabo's insights offer a cautiously optimistic perspective on Bitcoin's future. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term potential hinges on education, adoption, and the ability to navigate regulatory and ethical challenges. So, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! The ride may be bumpy, but the destination could be pretty spectacular.

尽管市场起伏不定，尼克·萨博的见解对比特币的未来提出了谨慎乐观的看法。虽然短期波动不可避免，但长期潜力取决于教育、采用以及应对监管和道德挑战的能力。所以，系好安全带，加密货币爱好者！旅程可能会很颠簸，但目的地可能会非常壮观。