並非所有的好消息都是買信號。有時，最積極的頭條標誌著轉折點

2025年5月的第一周，有許多積極的標題湧入加密貨幣市場。自一月以來，比特幣首次飆升了103,000美元。

The first week of May saw a swift market correction after a wave of good news pushed Bitcoin past $103,000 and the Fear & Greed Index soared to 70. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims dropped to 228,000, fueling investor optimism that the Fed might hold interest rates steady or even begin a rate-cutting cycle in Q3. The bullish sentiment sent altcoins like SOL, AVAX, TON, and INJ up by more than 15% over just four trading sessions.

5月的第一周，一波好消息將比特幣推向了103,000美元，而恐懼和貪婪指數飆升至70。與此同時，美國失業索賠下降到228,000。看漲的情緒將僅在四次交易課程中送出了Sol，Avax，Ton和Imp的山寨幣，並提高了15％以上。

However, within less than 48 hours, the market reversed sharply, with Bitcoin slipping below $101,800 and Ethereum falling back to around $2,100. Many altcoins also shed between 5% and 10% of their value as investor sentiment turned cautious and capital began rotating out of the week’s top gainers. Once again, the crypto community began discussing a familiar phrase: “Sell the News.”

但是，在不到48小時的時間內，市場急劇倒轉，比特幣滑倒在101,800美元以下，以太坊降至2,100美元左右。隨著投資者情緒變得謹慎，資本開始轉移到本週的最高獎勵者中，許多山寨幣也降低了其價值的5％至10％。加密社區再次開始討論一個熟悉的短語：“賣新聞。”

Good news doesn’t always mean price gains, especially in crypto, where reactions are faster and greed often outweighs fundamentals.

好消息並不總是意味著價格上漲，尤其是在加密貨幣中，反應更快，貪婪通常超過基本面。

One of the most classic examples was the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF (BITO) in October 2021. In the lead-up to approval, BTC rallied nearly 40%, from $43,000 to an all-time high of $67,000. However, just three days after the ETF began trading on the NYSE, Bitcoin reversed sharply and entered a months-long correction, ending the year at $47,000. Investors had expected good news to drive fresh inflows, but instead, it marked a sentiment top.

最經典的例子之一是2021年10月的Proshares比特幣期貨ETF（BITO）推出。在獲得批准的領先優勢中，BTC升起了近40％，從43,000美元到歷史最高的67,000美元。但是，在ETF開始交易紐約證券交易所的三天后，比特幣急劇逆轉並進行了一個月的更正，結束了年的47,000美元。投資者期望好消息推動新的流入，但它標誌著情感上衣。

A similar pattern emerged in January 2024, when the SEC rejected multiple Spot Ethereum ETFs and markets dipped only modestly. Then, as rumors of approval resurfaced in late February, ETH surged from $1,650 to $2,300 in just 10 days. But after the SEC officially greenlit four Spot ETH ETFs in March, ETH unexpectedly dropped 12% during the first week following the announcement.

2024年1月，SEC拒絕了多個以太坊ETF和市場的類似模式出現。然後，隨著批准的謠言在2月下旬重新浮出水面，ETH在短短10天內從1,650美元上漲至2,300美元。但是，在3月份SEC正式綠色的四個ETH ETF之後，ETH在宣布消息後的第一周意外地下降了12％。

More recently, in April 2025, Pudgy Penguins’ $PENGU token soared to $0.48 after a Walmart partnership announcement and a spike in Google Trends interest. Just one day later, the token crashed over 60% as the team unlocked a large tranche of tokens for the community.

最近，在2025年4月，Pudgy Penguins的$ Pengu代幣飆升至沃爾瑪合作夥伴關係公告和Google Trends興趣激增之後的0.48美元。僅僅一天后，由於該團隊為社區解鎖了一大批代幣，因此代幣墜毀了60％。

The meme coin market has also repeatedly echoed this pattern. In December 2023, BONK on Solana jumped over 300% in six days as rumors spread of a major centralized exchange partnership. Yet just two days after the news was confirmed, BONK lost nearly half its value within 48 hours.

模因硬幣市場也反復回應了這種模式。 2023年12月，由於謠言傳播了主要的集中式交流夥伴關係，索拉納（Bonk）的索拉納（Bonk）在六天內躍升了300％以上。然而，在消息得到確認僅兩天后，邦克在48小時內就失去了近一半的價值。

The “Sell the News” phenomenon usually isn’t because the news itself is bad, but rather, the market has already “priced in” the good news, with expectations running ahead of reality. According to CryptoQuant, between April 28 and May 10, stablecoin inflows to exchanges rose by 27%, indicating that investors were proactively preparing liquidity to “ride the news.”

通常，“出售新聞”現象通常不是因為新聞本身很糟糕，而是，市場已經“定價”了好消息，期望在現實前面。據CryptoQuant稱，在4月28日至5月10日之間，Stablecoin向交易所的流入增長了27％，這表明投資者正在積極準備流動性來“播放新聞”。

However, during the same period, the number of whale wallets (holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) remained largely flat, suggesting that the new inflows came primarily from short-term speculators. This aligns with a common pattern in crypto, where price rallies are often driven more by FOMO than long-term accumulation.

但是，在同一時期，鯨魚錢包的數量（持有1,000至10,000 btc）仍然很平坦，這表明新的流入主要來自短期投機者。這與加密貨幣中的共同模式保持一致，在加密貨幣中，價格集會通常比長期積累更多地由FOMO驅動。

Technical indicators also flashed warnings. On May 9, the daily RSI for both Bitcoin and ETH surpassed 70, signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, trading volume began to decline even as prices kept rising – a classic setup for a potential reversal. Data from Glassnode further showed a modest uptick in BTC deposits to exchanges on May 10, which coincided with the market’s short-term top.

技術指標還閃爍了警告。 5月9日，比特幣和ETH的每日RSI超過70，信號超出了條件。同時，即使價格上漲，交易量也開始下降，這是一種潛在逆轉的經典設置。 GlassNode的數據進一步表明，BTC沉積物在5月10日進行了交流，這與市場的短期頂部相吻合。

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether you should hold or sell when good news breaks. But three fundamental principles can help guide decision-making:

對於您是否應該在好消息休息時應該舉行還是出售，沒有一種適合的答案。但是三個基本原則可以幫助指導決策：

First, assess the underlying value of the information. A technical upgrade (like Ethereum’s Pectra) may offer long-term benefits, while token listing announcements or airdrops often provide only short-term upside.

首先，評估信息的基本價值。技術升級（例如以太坊的pectra）可能會提供長期的福利，而代幣上市公告或空投通常通常只提供短期上漲空間。

Second, monitor capital flows. If TVL, active users, and on-chain metrics remain largely unchanged after a major announcement, there’s a high probability that the rally is sentiment-driven and unlikely to last.

其次，監控資本流量。如果TVL，Active用戶和鍊鍊指標在重大公告之後基本上保持不變，那麼集會很可能是情感驅動的，並且不太可能持續下去。

Lastly, establish your exit strategy in advance – including clear profit-taking levels or leverage reductions. Making decisions amid volatile market moves often leads to emotional reactions and unexpected losses.

最後，提前建立您的退出策略 - 包括明確的獲利水平或利用降低。在動蕩的市場轉移中做出決定通常會導致情緒反應和意外損失。